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This paper is written to help look beyond the current policy developments and determine what demands and requirements there may be for a pan-European eIDM solution in 2015 and which services are likely to be developed based on this infrastructure. The findings have been prepared through literature research and expressed in briefing papers on prevailing eID standards and models and possible use cases for pan-European eGovernment Services for Citizens (PEGS). These formed the basis of 3 scenarios, which were used in a gaming seminar with 33 experts from national governments, the European Commission, industry and academia. The focus has been on identifying drivers and barriers and determining the value added of a European electronic Identity Management (eIDM) framework. The alternative futures presented in the scenarios, provided participants different angles to scope these issues and to identify which trends would be robust under different outlooks. Finally the experts were asked to identify policy measures that would need to be taken today to achieve the desirable outcomes of tomorrow. To align actors in the field a powerful shared vision is needed, driven by real user needs and public interest. This vision is to inform further progress on the realisation of eIDM objectives by 2010 and beyond. It is based on discussions between September 2006 and March 2007 with industry, civil society, the European Commission and Member States of the EU. The vision presented here does not necessarily reflect the opinion of any specific stakeholder, and is fully the responsibility of the authors.

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The research in this report was prepared for the e-Government Unit of DG Information Society and Media, European Commission and conducted by RAND Europe.

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