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Natural Gas and Israel's Energy Future

A Strategic Analysis Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty

by Steven W. Popper, James Griffin, Claude Berrebi, Thomas Light, Endy M. Daehner

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Ensuring a sufficient supply of energy, particularly electricity, to meet the ever-greater demands of a booming Israeli economy is a national concern. Israel began to introduce natural gas into its energy mix only in 2004. This report examines strategic alternatives available to Israel to make greater use of domestic and imported sources of natural gas. It explores both natural gas-utilization and supply-infrastructure strategies in an environment characterized by extreme uncertainty and potentially large consequences. It provides a detailed understanding of what are favorable future environments for Israel and, perhaps more importantly, what factors would lead to futures that are undesirable in light of Israel's goals and interests. It demonstrates what actions and means would be to Israel's greatest advantage in achieving an energy future that reduces its exposure to vulnerabilities and risks. The study applies an innovative, quantitative robust decisionmaking (RDM) approach to the question of how large a role natural gas should play in Israel. Rather than relying on the typical planning method of trying to develop plans around a small number of “most likely” scenarios, RDM helps planners discover strategies that are robust — i.e., strategies that perform well across a large range of plausible futures. Given an unpredictable future, RDM is used to examine the available alternatives and ask which would be best to choose.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    Natural Gas and Energy in Israel

  • Chapter Three

    A Framework for Identifying Robust Natural-Gas Strategies

  • Chapter Four

    Analytic Platform for Evaluating Natural-Gas Strategies

  • Chapter Five

    Evaluating Natural-Gas Strategies Against Uncertainties

  • Chapter Six

    Seeking a Robust Natural-Gas Strategy for Israel

  • Chapter Seven

    Natural-Gas Sources, Infrastructure, and Security

  • Chapter Eight

    Conclusions

  • Appendix A

    Model Structure and Analytical Framework

  • Appendix B

    Results of Scenario-Discovery Analysis

  • Appendix C

    Storage of Natural Gas

  • Appendix D

    Technologies for Electricity Generation

  • Appendix E

    The Natural-Gas Supply Model and Extended Results

  • Appendix F

    Relevant International Experience with Natural Gas

The research described in this report was supported by the Y&S Nazarian Family Foundation and was conducted under the auspices of the Environment, Energy, and Economic Development Program within RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Environment.

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