This document provides RAND Europe’s submission of evidence in relation to the UK Parliament’s Defence Committee's Call for Evidence on the Australia-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS) trilateral agreement.

Call for Evidence - AUKUS

Evidence submission by RAND Europe

Rebecca Lucas, James Black, Stuart Dee

Expert InsightsPublished Jul 23, 2025

Written evidence submitted to the UK Parliament’s Defence Committee's Call for Evidence on the Australia-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS) trilateral agreement.

Key Takeaways

  • The geopolitical environment has shifted substantially since the inauguration of AUKUS in 2021; but the core focus of a trilateral partnership built around trusted engagement with like-minded partners on shared and urgent strategic goals appears prescient. Changing geopolitical circumstances also engender a growing sense of urgency, reinforcing the strategic importance of AUKUS. Substantive progress on AUKUS Pillar 1 should now seek to be translated into Pillar 2 to retain political buy-in and domestic support across all partners.
  • Despite this progress, AUKUS Pillar 1 still faces considerable financial and industrial capacity risks. Some key areas of concern include long-term underinvestment in American and British defence industry, legal questions around the implementation of export control restrictions, training and retaining skills, and political commitment. These risks can be mitigated; however, it will require close coordination, targeted policy interventions and long-term investment.
  • Pillar 2 is a significant opportunity area for the UK but is currently under-resourced and subject to an unclear demand signal. Clarifying some of the structures and processes involved, followed by government investment of political and financial capital along many of the workstream areas, may be able to catalyse industry to engage more with defence in these areas. Substantive progress on Pillar 2 may also boost the significance and longevity of the overarching AUKUS partnership.

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Lucas, Rebecca, James Black, and Stuart Dee, Call for Evidence - AUKUS: Evidence submission by RAND Europe. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/testimonies/CTA4192-1.html.
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