Identifying and Planning for Vulnerabilities in the San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District’s Water Management Plans

by Michelle E. Miro

View Online

This interactive tool presents the results of a study that evaluated the performance of the San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District water plans — specifically, the 2015 Regional Urban Water Management Plan — under a range of future conditions. Researchers assessed whether demand for water outstripped the sustainable use of supply sources in the Valley District service area, taking into consideration future uncertainty in climate, drought, imported water supply, and water demand.

The research team evaluated water supply and demand across 1,872 plausible futures; defined key future vulnerabilities for the Valley District; determined whether new local water supply projects and demand-management options reduced future gaps between supply and demand or whether additional measures are needed; quantified future uncertainty; and identified signposts that indicated when demands might exceed supplies and when management plans might need to be adapted.

Research conducted by

The research underlying this tool was conducted by the Community Health and Environmental Policy Program within RAND Social and Economic Well-Being.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Tool series. RAND tools may include models, databases, calculators, computer code, GIS mapping tools, practitioner guidelines, web applications, and various toolkits. All RAND tools undergo rigorous peer review to ensure both high data standards and appropriate methodology in keeping with RAND's commitment to quality and objectivity.

Our mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective, and nonpartisan, we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence. For more information, visit

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.