Cover: The Future of Alzheimer's Care in America

The Future of Alzheimer's Care in America

How Patient Demand and Health Care System Capacity Could Affect the Delivery of Alzheimer's Disease–Modifying Treatments

Published Jan 30, 2024

by Lawrence Baker, Annie Chen, Jessie Wang, Federico Girosi, Jodi L. Liu

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This online, interactive tool allows users to see how differences in patient uptake and U.S. health care system capacity could affect the delivery of Alzheimer's disease–modifying therapies (DMTs) at the national and state levels from 2025 through 2044, including potential wait times and the number of patients treated. In the model used in this tool, patients move through detection, diagnosis, and treatment phases based on the assumed uptake and health care system capacity for each clinical activity, and patients move through disease states based on transition probabilities from the literature.

The tool expands and updates prior work by examining the role of primary care and geographic variation in capacity across the United States. The simulation results in this tool are not meant to predict what will actually happen with treatment delivery in the future, which will also depend on coverage and reimbursement decisions. Rather, the simulation results illustrate a selected set of possible scenarios to demonstrate the relative impact of varying patient uptake and capacity and how these factors interact to influence the delivery of Alzheimer's DMTs.

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This research was sponsored by Genentech and conducted within the Access and Delivery Program of RAND Health Care.

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