Assessing the Stabilizing Effects of Development Programming

A Review of USAID's Evaluation Efforts in Afghanistan

by Daniel Egel, Peter Glick

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This report reviews the methodology and tools developed by the Measuring Impact of Stabilization Initiative (MISTI) to assess the impact of United States Agency for International Development (USAID) stabilization-focused programming in Afghanistan. We identify strengths and limitations of the MISTI approach, and identify recommendations for improvement. In addition to providing structured feedback to MISTI to enhance future analyses in Afghanistan, the intent of this report is to use the MISTI evaluation to illustrate the types of challenges faced in evaluating stabilization-focused interventions. Therefore this review should be of interest to researchers and policymakers planning or conducting experimental or quasi-experimental impact evaluation in conflict settings.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    Theory of Change

  • Chapter Three

    Measurement

  • Chapter Four

    Estimation

  • Chapter Five

    Inference

  • Chapter Six

    Implications for MISTI and Assessment in Conflict Settings

This research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division.

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