Stephen J. Flanagan

Alliance Assignments: Defense Priorities For Key NATO States

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has galvanized NATO governments to address longstanding shortcomings in defense preparations. NATO is once again committed to collectively defending all allied territory and airspace. But current allied defense capabilities and posture are not adequate to do so.

One Year After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Experts React

We asked nearly 30 RAND experts to highlight takeaways from the first year of Russia's all-out war—and share what they're watching as the conflict in Ukraine grinds on. Here's what they said.

What Kind of Resistance Can Ukraine Mount?

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has ordered general mobilization, and Ukrainians are already engaging in irregular warfare and preparing for a prolonged resistance. What might a comprehensive Ukrainian resistance entail? What is the potential effectiveness, and what are the risks? What support could the international community provide?

U.S. Support for European Strategic Autonomy Could Boost Transatlantic Solidarity and Security

Leaders of EU member states and institutions have recently renewed calls for Europe to assume a greater role and increased autonomy in transatlantic and global security and defense. How can Europe and the United States work together to reduce misperceptions about strategic autonomy and chart an outcome that could enhance transatlantic solidarity and security?

Navigating Norms for the New Space Era

To make better progress on global norms for responsible behavior in space, the U.S. defense and intelligence communities might first consider reaching a consensus among themselves on what these norms should be. Until they reconcile their differences the United States will be less likely be in a position to play a leadership role.

How Joe Biden Can Galvanize Space Diplomacy

The potential for conflicts to originate in outer space, or for terrestrial conflicts to extend there, has grown with the development of counterspace weapons and the explosion of commercial space activity. But previous efforts to establish norms have had limited results. The Biden administration has an opportunity, working with like-minded allies and partners, to galvanize nascent international efforts.

How Norway's Allies View Its Defense Challenges and Opportunities

Norway's Ministry of Defence will shortly publish its next Long Term Plan, which outlines how the Armed Forces, in tandem with other elements of government and society, can best address the threats to Norway. Other countries can learn from how Norway chooses to tackle emerging challenges, and can benefit from its lessons learned.

Russia's Strategy in the Black Sea: How NATO Can Up Its Game

In March 2019, RAND brought together a group of security experts to discuss Russia's strategy in the Black Sea region, and what Western countries can do to protect common interests and counter Moscow's malign influence there.

A Turning Point in U.S-Turkish Relations?

While Turkish President Erdogan and U.S. President Trump emphasized the positive aspects of bilateral relations after their meeting, there remain points of contention. The stakes at this meeting and its outcome are high for both Turkey and the United States, and could mark a major milestone in the relationship.

'If You Want Peace, Prepare for Resistance'

Lithuania's government issued a guide on how its citizens can resist a potential Russian invasion and occupation. Resistance is a key element of the “Total Defense” strategy all three Baltic states have been pursuing, spurred on by Russian aggression.

NATO's Russia Problem: The Alliance's Tough Road Ahead Post-Warsaw Summit

NATO emerged from Warsaw more unified than some had predicted it would, especially after the shock of Brexit. But with strained economies, rising populism, and persistent threats from the East and the South, NATO still faces an uphill battle.

The Growing Importance of Black Sea Security

The U.S. and NATO response to Russia's more assertive policy in Europe since 2014 has focused heavily on deterring possible Russian threats to the Baltic region. As allies take steps to strengthen defense of the Baltic region, they need to pay increased attention to enhancing security and deterrence in the Black Sea area.

Report

A Framework of Deterrence in Space Operations

This report presents a framework on the nature and requirements of deterrence in space operations. Drawing on lessons from nuclear and cyber and selected national approaches to space deterrence, it presents three archetypes for space deterrence.

Report

Inflection Point: How to Reverse the Erosion of U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence

The U.S. defense strategy and posture have become insolvent. To defeat evolving threats, such as China's broad military modernization and Russia's reconstituted forces, more-coordinated efforts by the United States and its allies are required.

Report

China's Strategy and Activities in the Arctic: Implications for North American and Transatlantic Security

This report assesses China's strategy and diplomacy in the Arctic and the potential implications of Chinese investments and activities there for the rules-based order and for regional and transatlantic security.

Report

Chinese and Russian Perceptions of and Responses to U.S. Military Activities in the Space Domain

RAND researchers reviewed a variety of Chinese and Russian primary sources to understand internal Chinese and Russian perceptions of U.S. military space-related policies and activities. This report presents the results of their analysis.

Commentary

Pathways to Russian Escalation Against NATO from the Ukraine War

The potential for Russia to escalate the ongoing war in Ukraine by attacking a U.S. or allied target is a significant concern. This Perspective identifies four potential escalation pathways and accompanying key considerations for U.S. policymakers.

Report

European Strategic Autonomy in Defence: Transatlantic visions and implications for NATO, US and EU relations

This study examines the meaning of European strategic autonomy in defence and its implications for the U.S., NATO and US-EU relations using a scenario methodology and transatlantic expert consultation.

Report

Enhancing US-Finnish and regional defence cooperation: An exploratory analysis

This study examines Finland's defence posture and the transatlantic dimensions of Finnish security policy in the context of a potential crisis in the Nordic-Baltic region.

Report

Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security

Russia has long used political, military, economic, informational, and clandestine tools against countries in the Black Sea region. In this report, the authors present elements of a Western strategy to counter Russian malign influence and aggression.

Report

Enhancing deterrence and defence on NATO's northern flank: Allied perspectives on strategic options for Norway

To inform ongoing strategy and policy development, the Norwegian Ministry of Defence commissioned RAND to gather insights into key allies' perspectives on strategic opportunities and challenges for NATO deterrence and defence in the High North.

Report

Turkey's Nationalist Course: Implications for the U.S.-Turkish Strategic Partnership and the U.S. Army

The longstanding U.S. strategic partnership with Turkey, a powerful NATO ally, has become strained in recent years. RAND researchers assess challenges confronting the partnership and advance recommendations for sustaining it over the coming decade.

Report

Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security Strategy: Regional Perspectives from a 2019 Workshop

The authors report workshop discussions of four topics related to the strategic context in the Black Sea: Russia's strategy in the region; Russian military and soft-power instruments; Western goals and interests; and elements of Western strategy.

Journal Article

NATO From Liaison to Enlargement: A Perspective from the State Department and the National Security Council 1990–1999

This chapter examines the internal U.S. government debate on NATO's transformation and enlargement and how these initiatives pursued by the George H.W. Bush and Clinton Administrations shaped a new post-Cold War security order in Europe.

Report

Deterring Russian Aggression in the Baltic States Through Resilience and Resistance

The authors of this report examine how the unconventional defense strategies of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania can deter and counteract Russian hybrid and military attacks, and assesses the roles of enabling technologies and international support.

Journal Article

Sustaining the Promise of Mainz

This chapter reviews way to revitalize elements of President George H.W. Bush's vision of Europe whole, free, and at peace given the unraveling of arms control agreements, the return of armed conflict, and the deterioration of democratic governance and rule of law in several European countries.

Journal Article

NATO's Return to the North Atlantic: Implications for the Defense of Northern Europe

NATO allies and partners are refocusing on the maritime dimension of deterrence in the North Atlantic and Northern Europe in response to Russian assertiveness and deployment of new naval capabilities. They need to better integrate defense plans.