Stephen J. Flanagan

Stephen J. Flanagan
Adjunct Senior Fellow


Ph.D. in international relations, Fletcher School, Tufts University; A.B. in political science, Columbia University

Media Resources

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Stephen J. Flanagan is an adjunct senior fellow at the RAND Corporation. He served in several senior positions in government, most recently as special assistant to the president and senior director for defense policy and strategy at the National Security Council (NSC) from 2013 to 2015. Between 1989 and 1999 he served as special assistant to the president and senior director for Central and Eastern Europe at the NSC; associate director and member of the State Department's Policy Planning Staff; and national intelligence officer for Europe. He also worked as a professional staff member of the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. He held the Kissinger Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies from 2007 until 2013, and served as senior vice president and director of the International Security Program. He was director of the Institute for National Strategic Studies and vice president for research at National Defense University from 2000 to 2007. He also held research and faculty positions at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the Council on Foreign Relations, Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, and the National War College, and is an adjunct professor at Georgetown University.

Flanagan has published six books and over seventy reports and journal articles on transatlantic, international security, and defense issues. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the editorial Board of International Security. He earned a Ph.D. in international relations from the Fletcher School, Tufts University, and an A.B. in political science from Columbia University. 

Concurrent Non-RAND Positions

adjunct professor of security studies, Georgetown University

Selected Publications

Flanagan, Stephen J., Nicholas Martin, Alexis A. Blanc, and Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, A Framework of Deterrence in Space Operations, RAND Corporation (RR-A820-1), 2023

Ochmanek, David A., Anna Dowd, Stephen J. Flanagan, Andrew R. Hoehn, Jeffrey W. Hornung, Michael J. Lostumbo, and Michael J. Mazarr, Inflection Point: How to Reverse the Erosion of U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence, RAND Corporation (RR-A2555-1), 2023

Frederick, Bryan, Samuel Charap, Scott Boston, Stephen J. Flanagan, Michael J. Mazarr, Jennifer D. P. Moroney, and Karl P. Mueller, Pathways to Russian Escalation Against NATO from the Ukraine War, RAND Corporation (PE-A1971-1), 2022

Germanovich, Gene, James Black, Linda Slapakova, Stephen J. Flanagan, and Theodora Ogden, Enhancing US-Finnish and regional defence cooperation: An exploratory analysis, RAND Corporation (RR-A1424-1), 2021

Flanagan, Stephen J., Anika Binnendijk, Irina A. Chindea, Katherine Costello, Geoffrey Kirkwood, Dara Massicot, and Clint Reach, Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security, RAND Corporation (RR-A357-1), 2020

Black, James, Stephen J. Flanagan, Gene Germanovich, Ruth Harris, David A. Ochmanek, Marina Favaro, Katerina Galai, and Emily Ryen Gloinson, Enhancing deterrence and defence on NATO's northern flank: Allied perspectives on strategic options for Norway, RAND Corporation (RR-4381-NMOD), 2020

Flanagan, Stephen J., F. Stephen Larrabee, Anika Binnendijk, Katherine Costello, Shira Efron, James Hoobler, Magdalena Kirchner, Jeffrey Martini, Alireza Nader, Peter A. Wilson, Turkey’s Nationalist Course, Implications for the U.S.-Turkish Strategic Partnership and the U.S. Army, RAND Corporation (RR-2589), 2020



Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: BBC News; Channel News Asia; Defense & Aerospace Report; Eastern Front, AEI; NHK Broadcasting; NPR, Morning Edition; The Precision-Guided Podcast; WBUR/NPR Here and Now

Video Interviews: BBC News; C-SPAN Washington Journal; Defense and Aerospace Report; NHK Broadcasting


  • North Atlantic Treaty Organization

    Alliance Assignments: Defense Priorities for Key NATO States

    Russia's invasion of Ukraine has galvanized NATO governments to address longstanding shortcomings in defense preparations. NATO is once again committed to collectively defending all allied territory and airspace. But current allied defense capabilities and posture are not adequate to do so.

    Oct 4, 2023

    War on the Rocks

  • Ukraine

    One Year After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Experts React

    We asked nearly 30 RAND experts to highlight takeaways from the first year of Russia's all-out war—and share what they're watching as the conflict in Ukraine grinds on. Here's what they said.

    Feb 20, 2023

  • Ukraine

    What Kind of Resistance Can Ukraine Mount?

    Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has ordered general mobilization, and Ukrainians are already engaging in irregular warfare and preparing for a prolonged resistance. What might a comprehensive Ukrainian resistance entail? What is the potential effectiveness, and what are the risks? What support could the international community provide?

    Feb 28, 2022

    Defense News

  • Security Cooperation

    U.S. Support for European Strategic Autonomy Could Boost Transatlantic Solidarity and Security

    Leaders of EU member states and institutions have recently renewed calls for Europe to assume a greater role and increased autonomy in transatlantic and global security and defense. How can Europe and the United States work together to reduce misperceptions about strategic autonomy and chart an outcome that could enhance transatlantic solidarity and security?

    Nov 19, 2021


  • Space Science and Technology

    Navigating Norms for the New Space Era

    To make better progress on global norms for responsible behavior in space, the U.S. defense and intelligence communities might first consider reaching a consensus among themselves on what these norms should be. Until they reconcile their differences the United States will be less likely be in a position to play a leadership role.

    Feb 8, 2021

    The National Interest

  • Security Cooperation

    How Joe Biden Can Galvanize Space Diplomacy

    The potential for conflicts to originate in outer space, or for terrestrial conflicts to extend there, has grown with the development of counterspace weapons and the explosion of commercial space activity. But previous efforts to establish norms have had limited results. The Biden administration has an opportunity, working with like-minded allies and partners, to galvanize nascent international efforts.

    Jan 15, 2021


  • Norway

    How Norway's Allies View Its Defense Challenges and Opportunities

    Norway's Ministry of Defence will shortly publish its next Long Term Plan, which outlines how the Armed Forces, in tandem with other elements of government and society, can best address the threats to Norway. Other countries can learn from how Norway chooses to tackle emerging challenges, and can benefit from its lessons learned.

    Apr 16, 2020

    Defense News

  • Russia

    Russia's Strategy in the Black Sea: How NATO Can Up Its Game

    In March 2019, RAND brought together a group of security experts to discuss Russia's strategy in the Black Sea region, and what Western countries can do to protect common interests and counter Moscow's malign influence there.

    Sep 24, 2019

    The RAND Blog

  • Turkey

    A Turning Point in U.S-Turkish Relations?

    While Turkish President Erdogan and U.S. President Trump emphasized the positive aspects of bilateral relations after their meeting, there remain points of contention. The stakes at this meeting and its outcome are high for both Turkey and the United States, and could mark a major milestone in the relationship.

    May 21, 2017

    U.S. News & World Report

  • Security Cooperation

    'If You Want Peace, Prepare for Resistance'

    Lithuania's government issued a guide on how its citizens can resist a potential Russian invasion and occupation. Resistance is a key element of the “Total Defense” strategy all three Baltic states have been pursuing, spurred on by Russian aggression.

    Nov 22, 2016

    The National Interest

  • North Atlantic Treaty Organization

    NATO's Russia Problem: The Alliance's Tough Road Ahead Post-Warsaw Summit

    NATO emerged from Warsaw more unified than some had predicted it would, especially after the shock of Brexit. But with strained economies, rising populism, and persistent threats from the East and the South, NATO still faces an uphill battle.

    Jul 13, 2016

    The National Interest

  • Russia

    The Growing Importance of Black Sea Security

    The U.S. and NATO response to Russia's more assertive policy in Europe since 2014 has focused heavily on deterring possible Russian threats to the Baltic region. As allies take steps to strengthen defense of the Baltic region, they need to pay increased attention to enhancing security and deterrence in the Black Sea area.

    Jul 11, 2016

    U.S. News & World Report