Krystyna Marcinek

@KMMarcinek on Twitter

Assistant Policy Researcher; Ph.D. Candidate, Pardee RAND Graduate School

Santa Monica Office

Education

M.Phil. in policy analysis, Pardee RAND Graduate School; M.A. in Russian, East European, and Eurasian studies, Jagiellonian University, Poland

One Page Bio

Overview

Krystyna Marcinek is an assistant policy researcher at RAND and a Ph.D. student at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. Her research interests include international security, NATO, Russia, and the role of emerging technologies in the future of warfare.

Marcinek previously held analytical and advisory positions in several government institutions in Poland, including the Prime Minister's Office, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and the Polish Army. Her primary focus was Russian influence on Polish and regional security. She has conducted analyses of the Ukrainian crisis, the EU migrant crisis, counterterrorism, and energy security.

Marcinek holds an M.Phil. in policy analysis from Pardee RAND Graduate School and an M.A. with honors in Russian, East European, and Eurasian studies from Jagiellonian University in Poland.

Research Focus

Languages

Polish; Russian; Ukrainian

Commentary

Nuclear Weapons and Warfare

Nuclear Weapons and Putin's 'Holy War'
Russia's nuclear saber-rattling has shifted the stakes of the war in Ukraine. But enabling Russia's blackmail doesn't prevent the catastrophic costs of nuclear escalation. It merely shifts those costs away from Russia and into the future, inviting other nuclear states to pull the same move for their conquests.
Nov 2, 2022
The Hill
Natural Gas

Russia Does Not Seem to Be After Ukraine's Gas Reserves
There seems to be very little reason to believe that the true stakes of the war in Ukraine are the country's natural gas reserves, as some have speculated. Ukrainian gas fields appear too small to justify the costs of the invasion, too hard to keep, and almost impossible for Russia to exploit.
Apr 11, 2022
The RAND Blog

Publications

Report
The Trade-Offs of Ukraine's Recovery: Fighting for the Future
In making decisions about reconstruction, the Ukrainian people and their government will face trade-offs regarding timelines, prioritization of efforts, leadership, and funding.
May 2, 2023
Report
The Russian General Staff: Understanding the Military's Decisionmaking Role in a "Besieged Fortress"
In this report, the authors develop a foundational text for policymakers and warfighters to improve collective understanding of the Russian General Staff, including its capacity to condition Russia's national security decisionmaking process.
Mar 22, 2023
Report
Russia's Asymmetric Response to 21st Century Strategic Competition: Robotization of the Armed Forces
The authors explore Russian views on the military applications of robotics and artificial intelligence and how they differ from the United States' views on the matter. They assess whether Moscow has delivered -- or can deliver -- its robotization vision.
Mar 13, 2023
Report
An Exploratory Examination of Agent-Based Modeling for the Study of Social Movements
The authors of this report explore the use of agent-based modeling as a method for studying the effects of information and communications technologies on the formation, maintenance, and dissolution of social movements over time.
Aug 16, 2022
Report
Russian Military Forecasting and Analysis: The Military-Political Situation and Military Potential in Strategic Planning
In this report, the authors draw on a framework developed by the Russian military science community to gain insight into the likelihood and character of future war and the correlation of military potential between Russia and potential adversaries.
Jun 23, 2022
Draft
The Role of Communication and Network Technologies in the Dynamics of Social Movements
Investigates the multi-faceted role of information technologies in the spread and dynamics of social movements.
Jun 10, 2022
Report
Tweeting Out Surveys to Pro-Ukraine Influencers: Exploring the Potential for Enlisting Support in the Information Fight Against Russia
RAND researchers used Twitter advertisements to solicit survey participation from the most-influential members of the pro-Ukraine activist community, drawing on key influencers to help counter Russian propaganda in the region.
Mar 24, 2021
Report
Detecting Malign or Subversive Information Efforts over Social Media: Scalable Analytics for Early Warning
The authors examine scalable analytic means to detect malign or subversive information efforts. The report has operational relevance to the U.S. government and may also benefit other researchers and social media companies dealing with malign actors.
Mar 16, 2020
Report
Understanding Russian Subversion: Patterns, Threats, and Responses
This Perspective examines the interests that inspire Russia's use of subversion, the means involved, recent events that illustrate attempts at Russian subversion, and ways to improve the response to subversion attempts.
Feb 18, 2020
Research Brief
Systemic Risk: It's Not Just in the Financial Sector
After a decade of focus on financial firms, new analysis using an innovative approach and new dataset shows that firms in a diverse range of sectors, such as technology and telecommunications, pose a systemic risk to the economy at large.
Feb 3, 2020
Report
Systemic Risk in the Broad Economy: Interfirm Networks and Shocks in the U.S. Economy
Following the 2008 financial crisis, little attention was paid to systemic risks in the economy at large. The authors of this report address that gap, finding evidence that systemic risk extends beyond the financial sector.
Jan 21, 2020
Report
Fighting Shadows in the Dark: Understanding and Countering Coercion in Cyberspace
The authors of this report examine cases from Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea to understand whether and how states use cyber operations to coerce other states or actors, and highlight the challenges of identifying cyber coercion.
Sep 17, 2019
Research Brief
Will to Fight: Returning to the Human Fundamentals of War
This brief argues for the importance of improving our understanding of what influences will to fight, and it describes two models for doing so: one for analyzing a military unit's will to fight, and one for analyzing a nation's will to fight.
Sep 13, 2019