Dara Massicot

All Is Not Well on Russian Front Lines

For now, despite the Kremlin's dysfunctional decisions, Russia's defensive positions in Ukraine are still secure. But for how long? The cumulative pressure of bad choices is mounting and the problems endemic to Russia's campaign in Ukraine are likely to worsen.

The Russian Military's Looming Personnel Crises of Retention and Veteran Mental Heath

Russia's looming troop-retention and veteran-treatment problems are already visible on the horizon, even though they have been delayed by policy. By invading Ukraine, Russia has created a wave of severe trauma that will soon crash over its own country.

Russian Troops Know How Little They Mean to Putin

Over the past year, the Russian military has sustained staggering losses—over 100,000 casualties, thousands of pieces of armored equipment, and several squadrons of fighter jets and helicopters. But Russia isn't stopping. Newly mobilized Russian troops, knowing they are being used as cannon fodder, have made public appeals to be spared.

One Year After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Experts React

We asked nearly 30 RAND experts to highlight takeaways from the first year of Russia's all-out war—and share what they're watching as the conflict in Ukraine grinds on. Here's what they said.

Why Vladimir Putin Is Likely to Be Disappointed

None of the Kremlin's recent gambits—annexation, mobilization or personnel shuffles—can overcome the larger problems facing Russia's military. And in the months ahead, its difficulties will only worsen.

Russian Forces in Ukraine: Muddling Through

The Russian armed forces have suffered tens of thousands of casualties and lost more than 5,000 pieces of equipment. These deficits will make it hard for Russia to hold regions in Ukraine that it may soon try to annex. To succeed, Moscow will have to replenish personnel and equipment at scale—tasks that will prove extremely difficult.

Russia's Ambitions and the War in Ukraine: Q&A with Dara Massicot

Dara Massicot is a senior policy researcher at RAND who specializes in Russian military strategy. In this interview, she discusses Russia's war in Ukraine, its incorrect assumptions about Ukraine's will to fight, and how hard it's going to be for Russia to restore its military capabilities.

The Russian Military Has Failed Its Sons

The Russian military has a long history of mistreating its personnel and their frightened families. The military's culture of disregard for the lives and well-being of its personnel has done more than undermine their combat performance; it has also tanked their morale and will to fight.

Ukraine Needs Help Surviving Airstrikes, Not Just Killing Tanks

A Russian large-scale multidomain operation would be devastating for the Ukrainian military and people, and Ukraine should work to prevent that. But steps can also be taken to reduce the effects of the air and missile strikes that would likely lead off such an operation.

Summit a Chance to Clarify U.S.-Russia Relations: RAND Call With Experts

RAND experts discuss possible topics of conversation and potential takeaways from the upcoming summit between the United States and Russia. The summit will be a chance to rebuild and review the countries' fraught relationship.

Anticipating a New Russian Military Doctrine in 2020: What It Might Contain and Why It Matters

The United States and its allies should anticipate the possibility of an updated Russian military doctrine as early as 2020. Evaluating this document closely is important for understanding Russian threat perceptions and the leadership's methods to address those threats.

Report

Deterring Russia and Iran: Improving Effectiveness and Finding Efficiencies

To support defense planners in crafting effective deterrence strategies, RAND researchers assess the impact of U.S. forward presence, exercises and short-term deployments, and security cooperation on deterrence in Europe and the Middle East.

Report

Russian Military Personnel Policy and Proficiency: Reforms and Trends, 1991–2021

The authors of this report draw on Russian-language sources to examine trends in Russian military personnel policies and initiatives from the 1990s through December 2021, prior to Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Journal Article

What Russia Got Wrong: Can Moscow Learn From Its Failures in Ukraine?

Russia's struggles in Ukraine cannot be explained only as endemic military problems. Is Russia capable of learning from its failures?

Testimony

Russian Military Operations in Ukraine in 2022 and the Year Ahead

Testimony presented before the U.S. Senate Committee on Armed Services on February 28, 2023.

Report

Russia's Evolution Toward a Unified Strategic Operation: The Influence of Geography and Conventional Capacity

In this report, RAND researchers examine the reasons behind Russia's evolution toward a unified strategic operation, as well as the capabilities that would be necessary to execute key conventional offensive tasks in such an operation.

Report

Understanding Russian Coercive Signaling

Russia has consistently engaged in signaling activities toward the United States and its allies in recent years. The authors analyze this behavior to provide a better understanding of its drivers and practical guidelines for assessing future events.

Report

Disrupting Deterrence: Examining the Effects of Technologies on Strategic Deterrence in the 21st Century

The authors examined potential implications of emerging technologies for deterrence in the context of U.S. national security policy. They identified long-term effects on two major aspects of the deterrence dynamic -- effectiveness and stability.

Report

Security Cooperation in a Strategic Competition

In this study, RAND researchers examined the current role of security cooperation efforts as a tool in the emerging strategic competition among the United States, Russia, and China.

Report

Russia's Growing Presence in Africa: A Geostrategic Assessment

This report presents an empirically rigorous description of where Russia is involved in Africa, where it is most likely to become involved in the future, and what implications this might have for U.S. Air Forces Africa's regional strategy.

Report

Analysis of Russian Irregular Threats

The authors of this report describe strategic global trends related to Russian global influence and behavior and provide an overview and assessment of hostile activities that Russia has undertaken in the face of these trends.

Journal Article

Can a Pragmatic Relationship With the Taliban Help Russia Counter Terrorism?

Neither the United States nor Russia wants to see Afghanistan become a haven for international terrorist groups. For now, Russia is taking a pragmatic approach to the Taliban in that it has a relationship with the group that the United States does not.

Report

Russian Grand Strategy: Rhetoric and Reality

What is Russia's declared grand strategy? How do its actions and resource decisions match its declarations? The authors of this report offer answers to these questions and suggest implications for U.S. policymakers.

Report

Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security

Russia has long used political, military, economic, informational, and clandestine tools against countries in the Black Sea region. In this report, the authors present elements of a Western strategy to counter Russian malign influence and aggression.

Report

Russia's Limit of Advance: Analysis of Russian Ground Force Deployment Capabilities and Limitations

Analysis of Russian military capabilities reveals stark limitations in Russia's ability to safely and effectively deploy and sustain ground forces around the world.

Report

Russia's Limit of Advance: Scenarios

Russia's ability to deploy military forces around the world is significantly depleted from the Soviet era. This report describes the strengths and weaknesses of Russia's ground force deployment capacity.

Research Brief

Meeting Europe's 21st Century Security Challenges: Reimagining Conventional Arms Control

The authors of this report outline new conventional arms control measures to lower the risk of conflict in Europe and replace existing, outdated measures.

Report

A New Approach to Conventional Arms Control in Europe: Addressing the Security Challenges of the 21st Century

Through a combination of interviews, workshops, and structured analysis on the causes of potential conflict, the authors of this report outline new conventional arms control measures to lower the risk of conflict in Europe.

Report

The Future of the Russian Military: Russia's Ground Combat Capabilities and Implications for U.S.-Russia Competition

Researchers analyze societal, political, economic, and demographic factors that undergird Russian military power. They also make projections about how Russian ground combat capabilities will evolve in the future and how the U.S. Army can respond.

Research Brief

What Will Russian Military Capabilities Look Like in the Future?

RAND researchers analyzed the development of Russia's military capabilities over the next 20 years -- with a focus on ground combat -- and the implications of that development for U.S.-Russian competition and for the U.S. Army.

Commentary

The Russian Way of Warfare: A Primer

This perspective provides a primer on how Russia's military might fight in the event of a major conflict against a peer or near-peer adversary.

Commentary

Strengthening Strategic Stability with Russia

This report analyzes trends in strategic stability between Russia and the United States, examines Russian views on the subject, and assesses current prospects for stemming the erosion of strategic stability.