John V. Parachini

@JohnParachini on Twitter

Senior International and Defense Researcher, former Director of RAND National Defense Research Institute's Intelligence Policy Center; Affiliate Faculty, Pardee RAND Graduate School

Washington Office

Education

M.B.A., Georgetown University; M.A. in international relations, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University; B.A. in philosophy, Haverford College

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

John Parachini (he, him, his) is a senior international and defense researcher, former director of the RAND Intelligence Policy Center, and a member of the Pardee RAND Graduate School faculty. His primary areas of research include intelligence, counterterrorism, weapons proliferation, and warning. He has led RAND projects on the history and future of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence; terrorists' interest in and acquisition of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons; Russian and Chinese conventional arms sales; North Korean decisionmaking; open-source Intelligence; foreign terrorist fighter adaptations to countermeasures; artificial intelligence (AI) in China; and emerging technologies.

Parachini has testified before both houses of Congress and published articles on terrorism and weapons proliferation in the Washington Quarterly, Arms Control Today, RAND Review, The Nonproliferation Review, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Prism, Los Angeles Times, San Francisco Chronicle, Newsday, USA Today, Asian Military Review, RealClearWorld, RealClearDefense, The Hill, and International Herald Tribune.

Previously, Parachini served as executive director of the Washington office of the Monterey Institute of International Studies' Center for Nonproliferation Studies. Before that, he was a senior associate at the Henry L. Stimson Center, where he focused on nonproliferation and arms control issues. He also served in short assignments at the U.S. State Department.

Parachini has taught at Georgetown University, the University of Southern California Washington Policy Center, and the City University of New York's Baruch College. He earned his Ph.D. in international relations from the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University.

Research Focus

Previous Positions

Executive Director, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies; Senior Associate, Henry L. Stimson Center

Recent Projects

Strategic Warning: Organizing and Managing the Mission for the Current Era
Foreign Fighters and Adaptations to Countermeasures
Advancing USMC OSINT Capabilities: Leveraging Intelligence Community Best Practices
Factors Shaping North Korea's Thinking on Deterrence, Coercion, Escalation and Conflict Termination
Identifying Emerging Technologies and New Uses of Existing Technologies

Selected Publications

Parachini, John V., Rohan Kumar Gunaratna, Implications of the Pandemic for Terrorist Interest in Biological Weapons: Islamic State and al-Qaeda Pandemic Case Studies, RAND Corporation (RR-A612-1), 2022

Parachini, John V., Ryan Bauer, and Peter A. Wilson, Impact of the U.S. and Allied Sanction Regimes on Russian Arms Sales, RAND Corporation (RR-A1341-1), 2021

Parachini, John V., Scott W. Harold, Gian Gentile, Derek Grossman, Leah Heejin Kim, Logan Ma, Michael J. Mazarr, and Linda Robinson, North Korean Decisionmaking: Economic Opening, Conventional Deterrence Breakdown, and Nuclear Use, RAND Corporation (RR-A165-1), 2020

Weinbaum, Cortney, John V. Parachini, Richard S. Girven, Michael H. Decker, and Richard C. Baffa, Perspectives and Opportunities in Intelligence for U.S. Leaders, RAND Corporation (PE-287-OSD), 2018

Brian A. Jackson et al., Breaching the Fortress Wall: Understanding Terrorist Efforts to Overcome Defensive Technologies, RAND Corporation (MG-481), 2007

Brian A. Jackson et al., Aptitude for Destruction, Vol. 2: Case Studies of Organizational Learning in Five Terrorist Groups, RAND Corporation (MG-331), 2005

Sara A. Daly et al., Aum Shinrikyo, Al Qaeda and the Kinshasa Reactor: Implications of Three Case Studies for Combating Nuclear Terrorism, RAND Corporation (DB-458), 2005

John Parachini et al., Diversion of Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Weapons Expertise from the Former Soviet Union: Understanding an Evolving Problem, RAND Corporation (DB-457), 2005

Languages

Italian

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: Agence France Press; Australian Financial Review; BBC; Boston Globe; CBS; Christian Science Monitor; CNN; Congressional Quarterly; Dallas Morning News; Fox; History of the 90s Podcast; KCBS-AM; MSNBC; National Journal; NPR; Reuters; Shephard Media; St. Petersburg Times (FL); Toronto Star; Voice of America; WashingtonPost.com; WTOP

Commentary

Fighter Aircraft

Russia's Su-35: Are Its Military Aircraft Exports Headed for a Fall?
Squeezed by sanctions and pressed to replace equipment destroyed in Ukraine, Russia's aerospace sector isn't likely to have combat aircraft to sell, even if it wants to. If purchasing countries start to change their minds and invest in drones and other less-expensive precision guided munitions, the market for Russian combat aircraft might start to rapidly decline.
Oct 20, 2022
Defense News
Information Operations

Debunking Russian Lies About Biolabs at Upcoming U.N. Meetings
Before Russia invaded Ukraine in February, its diplomatic missions began circulating some particularly fantastical lies. It's tempting to write off such claims as cartoonish propaganda. But Russia is making similarly outrageous claims to the United Nations and other international forums. Such maneuvers could dangerously undermine international arms control agreements.
Sep 12, 2022
United Press International
Nuclear Disarmament

How Russia's Nuclear Double Cross of Ukraine Teaches Dangerous Lessons
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the West's support for Kyiv has been tempered by an ace up Vladimir Putin's sleeve: the potential use of nuclear weapons. But other countries are taking notice, which could imperil world stability even further.
Aug 16, 2022
Breaking Defense
International Economic Relations

A Test of How Effective Sanctions Are
The threat of severe sanctions failed to stop a Russian invasion of Ukraine. But if and when harsher economic punishment is handed down to Moscow, what effect might it have?
Feb 24, 2022
RealClearWorld
Fighter Aircraft

Is Russia's Su-75 'Checkmate' Aircraft a Case of Vapor Marketing?
During a Moscow air show last summer, Russia rolled out a mockup of the Su-75, a multipurpose fighter-bomber designed to compete in the global marketplace. But given the Russian aerospace sector's difficulties in developing, let alone delivering, advanced combat aircraft, prospective buyers should consider a range of options to meet defense needs.
Jan 6, 2022
Defense One
Africa

What Does Africa Need Most Now: Russian Arms Sales or Good Vaccines?
Why is Russia's main export to Africa advanced conventional weapons at a time when other needs are so great? African leaders might think twice about aggressive Russian arms pitches and engagement of mercenaries, and prioritize measures to stem the COVID-19 pandemic and encourage economic growth.
Nov 17, 2021
RealClearWorld
International Trade

Russia Engine Troubles: Is Putin's Behavior Catching Up with Him?
Actions taken to curb Russian malign activities around the globe appear to be affecting Russia's marine and aerospace engine sector. Efforts to arrest Russia's bad behavior might gain momentum if more countries followed the lead of Norway, which chose supporting sanctions over short-term economic gain.
Jun 15, 2021
The RAND Blog
Russia

Sanctions Targeting Russia's Defense Sector: Will They Influence Its Behavior?
In response to recent Russian cyber espionage, interference in U.S. elections, and the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, President Biden announced a new round of sanctions and expulsions of Russian officials. But will these sanctions hurt Russia's defense industry enough to curb the Kremlin's behavior?
May 20, 2021
RealClearDefense
Open Source Intelligence

An Early Policy Victory for DNI Haines: Boost the Priority of Open Sources Information
The quantity, quality, and accessibility of publicly available information has exploded over the past decades. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines has an opportunity to advance intelligence community mission activities on several key issues shaped by the digital information age, including the role of publicly available information.
Mar 4, 2021
The Hill
Intelligence Community

Biden and the U.S. Intelligence Community
President-elect Biden faces a daunting domestic and foreign policy agenda. Choosing an experienced hand like former CIA Deputy Director Avril Haines to be the next Director of National Intelligence could help restore the Intelligence Community's role in informing White House decisionmaking.
Nov 25, 2020
The Hill
Air Defense

Drone-Era Warfare Shows the Operational Limits of Air Defense Systems
External powers have intervened in the civil wars in Libya and Syria, supplying advanced conventional weapons that have intensified the conflicts. But not all of the weapons have performed as claimed.
Jul 2, 2020
RealClearDefense
Military Acquisition and Procurement

Spending Smart or Spending Big: The Value of Systematic Assessments of Weapons Procurement
Considering the COVID-19 pandemic and inevitable economic difficulties, national governments should be encouraged to weigh their military requirements in a more cost-effective manner. Countries need to think strategically about the life cycle costs of equipment, not just the original purchase price.
Jun 8, 2020
The RAND Blog
Philippines

Are Military Purchases in SE Asia for Political Balancing a Good Use of National Defense Resources?
The Philippines has embarked upon a multi-phase, multi-year modernization of its armed forces, but some of the acquisition decisions appear to be driven by political symbolism rather than responsible military decisions. Using military procurement for political symbolism and paying a high price for it takes resources away from other pressing national security and domestic needs.
May 7, 2020
Asian Military Review
Missile Defense

Russian S-400 Surface-to-Air Missile System: Is It Worth the Sticker Price?
Many countries do not fully appreciate that effective air defense requires a networked system and not just one missile system component. Getting the true defensive value out of the S-400 surface-to-air system requires additional components that add costs and complexities.
May 6, 2020
The RAND Blog
Chemical Terrorism

Keep Chemical Weapons Out of Terrorist Hands
As the Islamic State group and the Nusra Front seized territory in Syria and northern Iraq, they came upon military sites with chemical munitions and industrial facilities with toxic chemicals. Reducing such opportunities should be a priority.
Sep 27, 2016
U.S. News & World Report
Syria

Syria Cease-Fire Should Ban Chemical Weapons
The United States and Russia negotiated an agreement to suspend fighting in Syria and get relief supplies to trapped civilians. They should not miss an opportunity to regularly and forcefully draw a red line on the use of toxic chemicals as weapons.
Sep 15, 2016
USA Today
Middle East

Arab Spring, not Osama bin Laden's Fall, Will Determine Middle East's Fate
The unanswered question is just what will endure in the Arab world: comparatively peaceful demonstrations leading to regime change, or brutal tactics by authoritarian regimes to crush dissent and cling to power, writes John Parachini.
May 9, 2011
Christian Science Monitor
Peacekeeping and Stability Operations

A Bottom-Up Peace in Afghanistan
The Afghan government has embarked on a high-stakes gamble: Try to negotiate with the leaders of the various insurgent networks to end the nine-year-old Afghan war, write Wali Shaaker and John Parachini.
Jul 15, 2010
Providence Journal
Rereading the Duelfer Report
Published commentary by RAND staff.
Nov 15, 2004
International Herald Tribune
Iraq's Had Time to Really Hide Its Weapons Sites
Published commentary by RAND staff.
Sep 19, 2002
Newsday
Deny Victory to Anthrax Terrorists
By keeping in mind the modest scope of the anthrax attacks and not overreacting, we deny the perpetrators of these attacks their objective of terrorizing us into doing what they want us to do. These anthrax cases do, however, highlight some areas for improvement in America's response that can help reduce fear and anxiety, thereby denying the terrorists their objective.
Oct 17, 2001
International Herald Tribune
Religion Isn't Sole Motive of Terror
Published commentary by RAND staff.
Sep 16, 2001
Los Angeles Times

Publications

Tool
Mapping Chinese and Russian Military and Security Exports to Africa
RAND researchers analyzed which African countries received military arms and private military and security contractors from China and Russia in 2018-2021. This visualization maps China's and Russia's influence across Africa.
Dec 13, 2022
Report
Lessons Learned from the COVID-19 Outbreak: Preventing and Managing Future Pandemics
This collection of essays describes missteps made and lessons of critical importance learned during the global and U.S. response to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, with the goal of improving preparedness and preventing future pandemics.
Nov 1, 2022
Tool
China's Weapons Exports and Private Security Contractors
RAND researchers provide a visualization of China's military and security influence around the world through the country's exports of weapons and private security contractors during 2018-2021.
Aug 19, 2022
Report
Implications of the Pandemic for Terrorist Interest in Biological Weapons: Islamic State and al-Qaeda Pandemic Case Studies
Some analysts have expressed concern that weaknesses in responses to the COVID-19 pandemic will motivate terrorists to seek biological weapons. Although the prospect is unlikely, measures can be taken to address public health and military challenges.
May 31, 2022
Report
Impact of the U.S. and Allied Sanction Regimes on Russian Arms Sales
In this report, the authors examine Russian arms exports and the impact of sanctions designed to discourage third country purchases and raise the cost of future Russian malign interference in other nation-states.
Nov 18, 2021
Report
North Korean Decisionmaking: Economic Opening, Conventional Deterrence Breakdown, and Nuclear Use
The authors examine (1) experiences of different communist regimes to forecast North Korean adoption of a new economic model; (2) what might happen if conventional deterrence fails on the Peninsula; and (3) why North Korea might use nuclear weapons.
Aug 20, 2020
Report
Perspectives and Opportunities in Intelligence for U.S. Leaders
This Perspective identifies opportunities for senior government leaders to enact meaningful changes in the Intelligence Community across departments, agencies, and disciplines.
Sep 24, 2018
Testimony
Assessing North Korea's Chemical and Biological Weapons Capabilities and Prioritizing Countermeasures
Testimony presented before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Trade, and the Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific on January 17, 2018.
Jan 17, 2018
Research Brief
Getting Inside the Terrorist Mind
This research brief summarizes three new RAND monographs: one focuses on terrorists' defenses against counterterrorist technologies; another details terrorist technology- and knowledge-sharing; a third explores terrorist targeting preferences.
May 2, 2007
Report
Breaching the Fortress Wall: Understanding Terrorist Efforts to Overcome Defensive Technologies
Examines the history of terrorist conflicts to understand terrorists' counter-technology efforts and to help the nation make the best choices to protect it from the threat of terrorism.
Jan 29, 2007
Research Brief
Combating Nuclear Terrorism: Lessons from Aum Shinrikyo, Al Qaeda, and the Kinshasa Reactor
Few terrorist groups have made a systematic effort to acquire nuclear weapons or materials. RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF) studied three of these cases to to better understand the supply and demand for nuclear materials and why these attempts failed.
Nov 25, 2005
Report
Three Years After: Next Steps in the War on Terror
Three years after 9/11, the RAND Corporation held a conference to share results from recent terrorism studies with government officials, military officers, congressional staff, foundations and NGOs, foreign embassy representatives, and the public.
Jun 13, 2005
Report
Diversion of Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons Expertise from the Former Soviet Union: Understanding an Evolving Problem
Assesses the threat of diversion of expertise and sensitive information from the weapons complexes of the former Soviet Union.
May 13, 2005
Report
Aptitude for Destruction, Volume 1: Organizational Learning in Terrorist Groups and Its Implications for Combating Terrorism
Understanding how terrorist groups learn may aid in developing strategies to combat terrorist activities.
Apr 11, 2005
Report
Aptitude for Destruction, Volume 2: Case Studies of Organizational Learning in Five Terrorist Groups
Case studies of the organizational learning activities of five major terrorist groups and a methodology for ascertaining what and why they learned.
Apr 11, 2005
Report
Aum Shinrikyo, Al Qaeda, and the Kinshasa Reactor: Implications of Three Case Studies for Combating Nuclear Terrorism
Explores attempts by terrorists to acquire nuclear materials and fabricate nuclear systems and suggests that strict controls on nuclear weapons, materials, and expertise will reduce opportunities for terrorists to acquire them.
Apr 7, 2005
Testimony
Combating Terrorism: The 9/11 Commission Recommendations and the National Strategies
Testimony presented to the House Committee of Government Reform, Subcommittee on National Security, Emerging Threats, and International Relations on September 22, 2004.
2004
Report
The Office of Science and Technology Policy Blue Ribbon Panel on the Threat of Biological Terrorism Directed Against Livestock
Focuses on the nation's emergency management infrastructure and prioritizes a future research and development portfolio for thwarting potential terrorist bio-attacks against U.S. livestock and related produce.
2004
Report
Homeland Security: A Compendium of Public and Private Organizations' Policy Recommendations
Presents recent recommendations from various commissions and think tanks regarding U.S. homeland security policy.
2003
Report
The Implications of the September 11 Terrorist Attacks for California: A Collection of Issue Papers
This collection of issue papers illustrates that there is work to be done to improve our understanding of terrorism's longer-term effects.
2002
Periodical
RAND Review: Vol. 26, No. 2, Summer 2002
Surveys RAND research conducted since Sept. 11, 2001, that examines the dimensions of the terrorist threat and potential responses to it, and issues such as global priorities, oversees deployments, homeland security, and state and local initiatives.
2002
Testimony
Anthrax Attacks, Biological Terrorism and Preventive Responses
Testimony presented before the Subcommittee on Technology, Terrorism, and Government Information on November 6, 2001.
2001
Testimony
Combating Terrorism: Assessing the Threat of Biological Terrorism
Testimony presented before the Subcommittee on National Security, Veterans Affairs, and International Relations, Committee on Government Reform U.S. House of Representatives on October 12, 2001.
2001