John V. Parachini

One Year After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Experts React

We asked nearly 30 RAND experts to highlight takeaways from the first year of Russia's all-out war—and share what they're watching as the conflict in Ukraine grinds on. Here's what they said.

Russia's Su-35: Are Its Military Aircraft Exports Headed for a Fall?

Squeezed by sanctions and pressed to replace equipment destroyed in Ukraine, Russia's aerospace sector isn't likely to have combat aircraft to sell, even if it wants to. If purchasing countries start to change their minds and invest in drones and other less-expensive precision guided munitions, the market for Russian combat aircraft might start to rapidly decline.

Debunking Russian Lies About Biolabs at Upcoming U.N. Meetings

Before Russia invaded Ukraine in February, its diplomatic missions began circulating some particularly fantastical lies. It's tempting to write off such claims as cartoonish propaganda. But Russia is making similarly outrageous claims to the United Nations and other international forums. Such maneuvers could dangerously undermine international arms control agreements.

How Russia's Nuclear Double Cross of Ukraine Teaches Dangerous Lessons

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the West's support for Kyiv has been tempered by an ace up Vladimir Putin's sleeve: the potential use of nuclear weapons. But other countries are taking notice, which could imperil world stability even further.

A Test of How Effective Sanctions Are

The threat of severe sanctions failed to stop a Russian invasion of Ukraine. But if and when harsher economic punishment is handed down to Moscow, what effect might it have?

Is Russia's Su-75 'Checkmate' Aircraft a Case of Vapor Marketing?

During a Moscow air show last summer, Russia rolled out a mockup of the Su-75, a multipurpose fighter-bomber designed to compete in the global marketplace. But given the Russian aerospace sector's difficulties in developing, let alone delivering, advanced combat aircraft, prospective buyers should consider a range of options to meet defense needs.

What Does Africa Need Most Now: Russian Arms Sales or Good Vaccines?

Why is Russia's main export to Africa advanced conventional weapons at a time when other needs are so great? African leaders might think twice about aggressive Russian arms pitches and engagement of mercenaries, and prioritize measures to stem the COVID-19 pandemic and encourage economic growth.

Russia Engine Troubles: Is Putin's Behavior Catching Up with Him?

Actions taken to curb Russian malign activities around the globe appear to be affecting Russia's marine and aerospace engine sector. Efforts to arrest Russia's bad behavior might gain momentum if more countries followed the lead of Norway, which chose supporting sanctions over short-term economic gain.

Sanctions Targeting Russia's Defense Sector: Will They Influence Its Behavior?

In response to recent Russian cyber espionage, interference in U.S. elections, and the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, President Biden announced a new round of sanctions and expulsions of Russian officials. But will these sanctions hurt Russia's defense industry enough to curb the Kremlin's behavior?

An Early Policy Victory for DNI Haines: Boost the Priority of Open Sources Information

The quantity, quality, and accessibility of publicly available information has exploded over the past decades. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines has an opportunity to advance intelligence community mission activities on several key issues shaped by the digital information age, including the role of publicly available information.

Biden and the U.S. Intelligence Community

President-elect Biden faces a daunting domestic and foreign policy agenda. Choosing an experienced hand like former CIA Deputy Director Avril Haines to be the next Director of National Intelligence could help restore the Intelligence Community's role in informing White House decisionmaking.

Drone-Era Warfare Shows the Operational Limits of Air Defense Systems

External powers have intervened in the civil wars in Libya and Syria, supplying advanced conventional weapons that have intensified the conflicts. But not all of the weapons have performed as claimed.

Spending Smart or Spending Big: The Value of Systematic Assessments of Weapons Procurement

Considering the COVID-19 pandemic and inevitable economic difficulties, national governments should be encouraged to weigh their military requirements in a more cost-effective manner. Countries need to think strategically about the life cycle costs of equipment, not just the original purchase price.

Are Military Purchases in SE Asia for Political Balancing a Good Use of National Defense Resources?

The Philippines has embarked upon a multi-phase, multi-year modernization of its armed forces, but some of the acquisition decisions appear to be driven by political symbolism rather than responsible military decisions. Using military procurement for political symbolism and paying a high price for it takes resources away from other pressing national security and domestic needs.

Russian S-400 Surface-to-Air Missile System: Is It Worth the Sticker Price?

Many countries do not fully appreciate that effective air defense requires a networked system and not just one missile system component. Getting the true defensive value out of the S-400 surface-to-air system requires additional components that add costs and complexities.

Keep Chemical Weapons Out of Terrorist Hands

As the Islamic State group and the Nusra Front seized territory in Syria and northern Iraq, they came upon military sites with chemical munitions and industrial facilities with toxic chemicals. Reducing such opportunities should be a priority.

Syria Cease-Fire Should Ban Chemical Weapons

The United States and Russia negotiated an agreement to suspend fighting in Syria and get relief supplies to trapped civilians. They should not miss an opportunity to regularly and forcefully draw a red line on the use of toxic chemicals as weapons.

Arab Spring, not Osama bin Laden's Fall, Will Determine Middle East's Fate

The unanswered question is just what will endure in the Arab world: comparatively peaceful demonstrations leading to regime change, or brutal tactics by authoritarian regimes to crush dissent and cling to power, writes John Parachini.

A Bottom-Up Peace in Afghanistan

The Afghan government has embarked on a high-stakes gamble: Try to negotiate with the leaders of the various insurgent networks to end the nine-year-old Afghan war, write Wali Shaaker and John Parachini.

Rereading the Duelfer Report

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Iraq's Had Time to Really Hide Its Weapons Sites

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Deny Victory to Anthrax Terrorists

By keeping in mind the modest scope of the anthrax attacks and not overreacting, we deny the perpetrators of these attacks their objective of terrorizing us into doing what they want us to do. These anthrax cases do, however, highlight some areas for improvement in America's response that can help reduce fear and anxiety, thereby denying the terrorists their objective.

Religion Isn't Sole Motive of Terror

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Report

Conference Proceedings on Indian and U.S. Security Cooperation: Defense Production, Indo-Pacific Region, and Afghanistan

A two-day conference explored Indian and U.S. views on security across the Indo-Pacific, informed by six papers discussing bilateral security cooperation, Russian arms sales to India, and the challenges posed by China to regional security.

Tool

Mapping Chinese and Russian Military and Security Exports to Africa

RAND researchers analyzed which African countries received military arms and private military and security contractors from China and Russia in 2018-2021. This visualization maps China's and Russia's influence across Africa.

Commentary

Lessons Learned from the COVID-19 Outbreak: Preventing and Managing Future Pandemics

This collection of essays describes missteps made and lessons of critical importance learned during the global and U.S. response to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, with the goal of improving preparedness and preventing future pandemics.

Tool

China's Weapons Exports and Private Security Contractors

RAND researchers provide a visualization of China's military and security influence around the world through the country's exports of weapons and private security contractors during 2018-2021.

Report

Implications of the Pandemic for Terrorist Interest in Biological Weapons: Islamic State and al-Qaeda Pandemic Case Studies

Some analysts have expressed concern that weaknesses in responses to the COVID-19 pandemic will motivate terrorists to seek biological weapons. Although the prospect is unlikely, measures can be taken to address public health and military challenges.

Report

Impact of the U.S. and Allied Sanction Regimes on Russian Arms Sales

In this report, the authors examine Russian arms exports and the impact of sanctions designed to discourage third country purchases and raise the cost of future Russian malign interference in other nation-states.

Report

North Korean Decisionmaking: Economic Opening, Conventional Deterrence Breakdown, and Nuclear Use

The authors examine (1) experiences of different communist regimes to forecast North Korean adoption of a new economic model; (2) what might happen if conventional deterrence fails on the Peninsula; and (3) why North Korea might use nuclear weapons.

Commentary

Perspectives and Opportunities in Intelligence for U.S. Leaders

This Perspective identifies opportunities for senior government leaders to enact meaningful changes in the Intelligence Community across departments, agencies, and disciplines.

Testimony

Assessing North Korea's Chemical and Biological Weapons Capabilities and Prioritizing Countermeasures

Testimony presented before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Trade, and the Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific on January 17, 2018.

Research Brief

Getting Inside the Terrorist Mind

This research brief summarizes three new RAND monographs: one focuses on terrorists' defenses against counterterrorist technologies; another details terrorist technology- and knowledge-sharing; a third explores terrorist targeting preferences.

Report

Breaching the Fortress Wall: Understanding Terrorist Efforts to Overcome Defensive Technologies

Examines the history of terrorist conflicts to understand terrorists' counter-technology efforts and to help the nation make the best choices to protect it from the threat of terrorism.

Research Brief

Combating Nuclear Terrorism: Lessons from Aum Shinrikyo, Al Qaeda, and the Kinshasa Reactor

Few terrorist groups have made a systematic effort to acquire nuclear weapons or materials. RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF) studied three of these cases to to better understand the supply and demand for nuclear materials and why these attempts failed.

Report

Three Years After: Next Steps in the War on Terror

Three years after 9/11, the RAND Corporation held a conference to share results from recent terrorism studies with government officials, military officers, congressional staff, foundations and NGOs, foreign embassy representatives, and the public.

Report

Diversion of Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons Expertise from the Former Soviet Union: Understanding an Evolving Problem

Assesses the threat of diversion of expertise and sensitive information from the weapons complexes of the former Soviet Union.

Report

Aptitude for Destruction, Volume 1: Organizational Learning in Terrorist Groups and Its Implications for Combating Terrorism

Understanding how terrorist groups learn may aid in developing strategies to combat terrorist activities.

Report

Aptitude for Destruction, Volume 2: Case Studies of Organizational Learning in Five Terrorist Groups

Case studies of the organizational learning activities of five major terrorist groups and a methodology for ascertaining what and why they learned.

Report

Aum Shinrikyo, Al Qaeda, and the Kinshasa Reactor: Implications of Three Case Studies for Combating Nuclear Terrorism

Explores attempts by terrorists to acquire nuclear materials and fabricate nuclear systems and suggests that strict controls on nuclear weapons, materials, and expertise will reduce opportunities for terrorists to acquire them.

Testimony

Combating Terrorism: The 9/11 Commission Recommendations and the National Strategies

Testimony presented to the House Committee of Government Reform, Subcommittee on National Security, Emerging Threats, and International Relations on September 22, 2004.

Report

The Office of Science and Technology Policy Blue Ribbon Panel on the Threat of Biological Terrorism Directed Against Livestock

Focuses on the nation's emergency management infrastructure and prioritizes a future research and development portfolio for thwarting potential terrorist bio-attacks against U.S. livestock and related produce.

Report

Homeland Security: A Compendium of Public and Private Organizations' Policy Recommendations

Presents recent recommendations from various commissions and think tanks regarding U.S. homeland security policy.

Report

The Implications of the September 11 Terrorist Attacks for California: A Collection of Issue Papers

This collection of issue papers illustrates that there is work to be done to improve our understanding of terrorism's longer-term effects.

Periodical

RAND Review: Vol. 26, No. 2, Summer 2002

Surveys RAND research conducted since Sept. 11, 2001, that examines the dimensions of the terrorist threat and potential responses to it, and issues such as global priorities, oversees deployments, homeland security, and state and local initiatives.

Testimony

Anthrax Attacks, Biological Terrorism and Preventive Responses

Testimony presented before the Subcommittee on Technology, Terrorism, and Government Information on November 6, 2001.

Testimony

Combating Terrorism: Assessing the Threat of Biological Terrorism

Testimony presented before the Subcommittee on National Security, Veterans Affairs, and International Relations, Committee on Government Reform U.S. House of Representatives on October 12, 2001.