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As manufacturing processes and materials used in aircraft engine production change and new information on aircraft engine technology becomes available, cost-estimation techniques must be updated. The authors present the results of a RAND research project to develop a new methodology for estimating military jet engine costs. They first discuss the technical parameters that drive the engine development schedule, development costs, and production costs, and then present a quantitative analysis of actual historical data on development schedules and costs. Their principal focus was on adding new observations to the cost-estimating database from earlier RAND studies and updating the parametric relationships for aircraft engine costs and development time. The authors present a series of parametric relationships for forecasting the development cost, development time, and production cost of future military engine programs. Their results indicate that rotor inlet temperature is a significant variable in most of the reported estimating relationships. Full-scale test hours and whether an engine is new or derivative were also found to be significant measures.
Table of Contents
Chapter One
Introduction
Part I
Engine Basics and Performance Parameters
Chapter Two
Jet Engine Basics, Metrics, and Technological Trends
Chapter Three
Trends in Technological Innovation
Part II
Data Analysis and Cost-Estimating Techniques
Chapter Four
An Overview of Cost-Estimating Methods
Chapter Five
Estimating Parameters and Gathering Data
Chapter Six
Statistical Analysis
Chapter Seven
Conclusions
Appendix A
An Examination of the Time of Arrival Metric
Appendix B
An Overview of Military Jet Engine History
Appendix C
Aircraft Turbine Engine Development
Appendix D
Modern Tactical Jet Engines
Research conducted by
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