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As manufacturing processes and materials used in aircraft engine production change and new information on aircraft engine technology becomes available, cost-estimation techniques must be updated. The authors present the results of a RAND research project to develop a new methodology for estimating military jet engine costs. They first discuss the technical parameters that drive the engine development schedule, development costs, and production costs, and then present a quantitative analysis of actual historical data on development schedules and costs. Their principal focus was on adding new observations to the cost-estimating database from earlier RAND studies and updating the parametric relationships for aircraft engine costs and development time. The authors present a series of parametric relationships for forecasting the development cost, development time, and production cost of future military engine programs. Their results indicate that rotor inlet temperature is a significant variable in most of the reported estimating relationships. Full-scale test hours and whether an engine is new or derivative were also found to be significant measures.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One


  • Part I

    Engine Basics and Performance Parameters

  • Chapter Two

    Jet Engine Basics, Metrics, and Technological Trends

  • Chapter Three

    Trends in Technological Innovation

  • Part II

    Data Analysis and Cost-Estimating Techniques

  • Chapter Four

    An Overview of Cost-Estimating Methods

  • Chapter Five

    Estimating Parameters and Gathering Data

  • Chapter Six

    Statistical Analysis

  • Chapter Seven


  • Appendix A

    An Examination of the Time of Arrival Metric

  • Appendix B

    An Overview of Military Jet Engine History

  • Appendix C

    Aircraft Turbine Engine Development

  • Appendix D

    Modern Tactical Jet Engines

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The research described in this report was performed under the auspices of RAND's Project AIR FORCE.

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