Military Recruiting: Trends, Outlook, and Implications
Jan 1, 2001
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The authors estimate an econometric model of high-quality enlistment supply using geographically disaggregated data from two periods, FY83-87 and FY90-93. They find that econometric models based on data from the earlier period do not predict the recruiting difficulties reported by the military in the 1990s. This conforms to a preliminary assessment provided by Asch and Orvis (MR-549-A/OSD, 1994). The authors also find that econometric models estimated with the 1990s data give altered counsel about the effects of at least some policy variables, most notably the number of recruiters.
Variables Influencing Enlistment Supply
The Econometric Models
Conclusions and Recommendations
A Formal Model of Enlistment Supply
The Stochastic Specification and Estimation Procedures
Estimation Results for Aggregate and Logarithmic Models for the Army
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