Recent statistics suggest that fertility in Europe shows signs of recovery after decades of year-on-year drops. This report updates a study on low fertility from 2004 and explores the extent, causes and consequences of the recent recovery.

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Low fertility in Europe

Is there still reason to worry?

by Stijn Hoorens, Jack Clift, Laura Staetsky, Barbara Janta, Stephanie Diepeveen, Molly Morgan Jones, Jonathan Grant

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Research Questions

  1. Is fertility really recovering, to what extent and where?
  2. If so, what are the underlying reasons for this trend?
  3. What are the key differences between different regions and, within countries, between different groups in the population?
  4. What are the consequences for policy? Do we need to adjust the conclusions in the 2004 report?

Many European governments have been concerned about falling fertility rates, because of the welfare implications of an ageing population and a shrinking workforce. However, 'Doomsday' scenarios of fertility spiralling downwards and European populations imploding have not yet materialised. Recent statistics for childbearing even suggest some recovery in Europe's fertility. RAND Europe therefore decided to update its 2004 study into the causes and consequences of low fertility in Europe. The report analyses the latest data, reviewed recent literature, and examined the situation in Germany, Poland, Spain, Sweden and the UK in depth.

The recent recovery appears to be due to complex set of interacting factors, including economic growth, increased female labour participation, and improved gender equality in the work force. Policy and the fertility of migrants also had an effect, albeit limited. Policy makers should note that European couples are not necessarily having more children, but are having them later in life, and that rising fertility rates will not have an immediate impact on population ageing or its consequences.

The outlook for fertility in the EU as a whole is not as bleak as it was a decade ago, but fertility rates in several countries are still alarmingly low. These countries will need to continue exploring ways to remove the barriers to parenthood. Implementing measures that help both women and men to combine their career with their family life has direct effects for gender equality and labour force participation, but potential positive externalities for childbearing behaviour.

Key Findings

  • Declining fertility is a global phenomenon induced by a complex interplay of factors, and we still do not understand the drivers of fertility
  • Europe has seen a trend of recovery of aggregate period fertility, but policymakers should not overinterpret these indicators
  • More older women are bearing children, but fewer younger mothers
  • The trend of increasing childbearing at later ages is not a new phenomenon
  • Migration is not the main explanation for the recent recovery of period fertility
  • The association between economic growth and fertility has reversed in some countries
  • Policy matters, but probably only a little; the impact of individual policy measures tends to be fairly small
  • Enabling parents to combine labour participation and family duties has positive side-effects
  • Regardless of recent period fertility recovery, Europe’s population will continue to age

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    Demographic trends: what the data tell us

  • Chapter Three

    Drivers of fertility: what the literature tells us

  • Chapter Four

    Case study: Germany

  • Chapter Five

    Case study: Poland

  • Chapter Six

    Case study: Spain

  • Chapter Seven

    Case study: Sweden

  • Chapter Eight

    Case study: United Kingdom

  • Chapter Nine

    Conclusions and implications for policy

  • Appendix A

    The potential consequences of population ageing

  • Appendix B

    The other drivers of population dynamics

Research conducted by

The research described in this report was conducted by RAND Europe.

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