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The Army cannot effectively project power if it cannot get to where it needs to go to confront future adversaries. The authors of this report developed scenarios and conducted political-military games to determine what strategies, tactics, and capabilities potential adversaries might use to prevent or complicate U.S. access to key areas and how effective the U.S. counters to these tactics are. After their assessment, the authors were reasonably sanguine about the ability of the U.S. to prevail in the near term, but they also identified areas of future concern and suggested several improvements, including expanding the number of in-theater bases that might be available; enhancing the flexibility and deployability of U.S. forces to more austere bases; and upgrading detection, warning, and force protection measures.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    Analytic Approach

  • Chapter Three

    Southwest Asian Theater: An Iraq Game

  • Chapter Four

    The Pacific Theater: A PRC-Taiwan Game

  • Chapter Five

    European Theater: A Russia-Baltics Game

  • Chapter Six

    Latin America and the Caribbean

  • Chapter Seven

    What the Games Revealed About Anti-Access Threats

  • Chapter Eight

    Toward a Strategy for Assuring Access

  • Chapter Nine

    Conclusions and Implications

Research conducted by

The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Army and performed by the RAND Arroyo Center.

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