Research Brief
Choosing Defense Project Portfolios: A New Tool for Making Optimal Choices in a World of Constraint and Uncertainty
Oct 11, 2012
Toward Affordable Systems
Portfolio Analysis and Management for Army Science and Technology Programs
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Consistent with U.S. Department of Defense acquisition policy since 2003, U.S. Army leadership has called for consideration of lifecycle cost at system design and technology development stages so that adjustments can be made early enough to ensure affordability. This study developed and demonstrated a method and model to incorporate lifecycle cost into the portfolio analysis and management process for Army Science and Technology programs. The linear programming model developed here can select an optimized portfolio of Science and Technology projects to meet all individual capability requirements at the lowest total remaining lifecycle cost. The study results demonstrate several applications important to the management of Army Science and Technology programs, as well as estimation methods for the contribution of Science and Technology projects to capability requirements and for cost components.
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Table of Contents
Chapter One
Introduction
Chapter Two
The Current DoD Acquisition Policy
Chapter Three
Description of Our Evolutionary Method
Chapter Four
Estimation of Input Parameters
Chapter Five
Applications to S&T Portfolio Management
Chapter Six
Findings and Recommendations
Appendix A
Additional Information on Army Acquisition Categories and Combat Developer
Appendix B
Estimation of Expected Values
Appendix C
Estimation of Marginal Unit Cost, Number of Units, and Marginal Operating and Maintenance Cost
Appendix D
Universal Curves for Estimation of the Remaining Lifecycle Cost for Components
Appendix E
Choosing Essential ATOs Across a Wide Range of Capability Requirements
Appendix F
Insensitivity of Model Results to Detailed Estimation of Remaining Lifecycle Cost
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The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Army and conducted by RAND Arroyo Center.
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