A Delicate Balance

Portfolio Analysis and Management for Intelligence Information Dissemination Programs

Eric Landree, Richard Silberglitt, Brian G. Chow, Lance Sherry, Michael S. Tseng

ResearchPublished Dec 15, 2009

This description of the application of the RAND Corporation's PortMan portfolio analysis and management method for the National Security Agency (NSA) Information Sharing Services (ISS) division demonstrates how PortMan (1) enables the data-driven analysis of project portfolios and (2) provides a means for monitoring the progress of potentially high-value projects and associated risk-mitigation strategies.

RAND developed two sets of metrics to help ISS estimate the expected value of the projects in its portfolio, one for research and development (R&D) projects and one for operations and maintenance (O&M) projects. Metrics were based on elicitations of the important components of value and risk from ISS staff and an analysis of documents provided by ISS management. RAND also conducted a Delphi consensus-building exercise with subject matter experts from ISS's Senior Leadership Group (SLG) to estimate both the value and the probability of successful implementation of each project. PortMan allows for the inclusion of value, risk, and cost in the portfolio analysis, and RAND used a linear programming model to select a portfolio of projects that delivers the maximum portfolio expected value for the available budget.

This analysis generated reproducible and auditable data to support programmatic decisionmaking within ISS; it also provided a venue in which ISS leadership could identify areas of consensus and non-consensus and debate the latter. Finally, it provided data and analysis of expected value versus program budget and expected value-to-cost ratios of individual projects that can be used by program managers and directors in discussions with supervisors and senior management.

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Document Details

  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Available
  • Year: 2009
  • Print Format: Paperback
  • Paperback Pages: 64
  • Paperback Price: $23.00
  • Paperback ISBN/EAN: 978-0-8330-4909-4
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/MG939
  • Document Number: MG-939-NSA

Citation

RAND Style Manual
Landree, Eric, Richard Silberglitt, Brian G. Chow, Lance Sherry, and Michael S. Tseng, A Delicate Balance: Portfolio Analysis and Management for Intelligence Information Dissemination Programs, RAND Corporation, MG-939-NSA, 2009. As of October 5, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG939.html
Chicago Manual of Style
Landree, Eric, Richard Silberglitt, Brian G. Chow, Lance Sherry, and Michael S. Tseng, A Delicate Balance: Portfolio Analysis and Management for Intelligence Information Dissemination Programs. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2009. https://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG939.html. Also available in print form.
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The research described in this report was prepared for the National Security Agency. The research was conducted in the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community.

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