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The text of an interview for Japan's [The] [Kokubo], predicting some effects from President Johnson's announcements of the bombing cessation and his withdrawal from the presidential race: (1) reduced political schism in the United States; (2) a temporizing (if any) response from North Vietnam; (3) a fracturing rather than a strengthening of South Vietnam; (4) favorable worldwide opinion, blurred by announcements of bombing up to the 20th parallel and an additional 13,500 troops; and (5) unfavorable reaction in Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Australia. Serious negotiations are doubtful before the American elections, and then the primary emphasis should be on enforcement instrumentation, with ideological gains secondary. Two lessons from the war are to avoid turning insurgencies into conventional wars and to use tolerance with persistence in improving a government's effectiveness. A major possible effect of the war may be U.S. isolationism so as to deal with domestic issues. The problems are soluble, but they will take time.
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