Two Notes on Inferring Long Run Behavior from Social Experiments
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Discusses the problem of inferring the long-run effect of a change in price on quantity demanded when price is changed for only a short period of time. The subject was first considered in the New Jersey Negative Income Tax Maintenance Experiment by Charles Metcalf. This paper derives Metcalf's results in a simple fashion and also generalizes them. An application to the Health Insurance Study is presented.
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