Annual Trends Among the Unsheltered in Three Los Angeles Neighborhoods: The Los Angeles Longitudinal Enumeration and Demographic Survey (LA LEADS) 2023 Annual Report

Despite substantial ongoing efforts to resolve homelessness in Los Angeles, data from Los Angeles County's January 2023 point-in-time count found a 9 percent increase from the previous year in the estimated number of people experiencing homelessness countywide and a 10 percent increase in the City of Los Angeles (Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority, 2023). These sobering estimates underscore the need to continue efforts to address homelessness in the Los Angeles region and to monitor the progress of these efforts.

This study provides another year of results from the Los Angeles Longitudinal Enumeration and Demographic Survey (LA LEADS), a first-of-its-kind longitudinal data collection effort in three neighborhoods in the City of Los Angeles. Since fall 2021, RAND researchers have conducted regular enumerations of the unsheltered population in Hollywood, Skid Row, and Venice. These three neighborhoods are well known for having high concentrations of people living unsheltered. In addition to counts, we conducted surveys with people living unsheltered in these neighborhoods to better understand the characteristics, experiences, and needs of this population. The results of the first year of this study—including enumeration data showing substantial growth in the size of these populations and survey results providing new evidence on the housing needs and experiences of unsheltered individuals—were presented in Ward, Garvey, and Hunter (2023).

We continued our enumeration and survey efforts in these three neighborhoods in 2023 using an updated survey instrument to learn more about the experiences of respondents with the homelessness outreach system, shelter and/or housing services, and street health care services. In addition to continuing to collect data on many key survey items so that we could compare our results across time, we added new questions about employment, income, experiences with service providers, health conditions, and substance use.

Effective monitoring of the state of unsheltered homelessness in Los Angeles is a critical task. The results from this ongoing study can continue to provide important evidence on the extent of progress in addressing the homelessness crisis in Los Angeles, but it is also important to stress that the localized nature of our study is an important limitation on the conclusions that can be drawn from it. Most importantly, although we focus on neighborhoods with persistent and large populations of unsheltered residents, we cannot rule out important sources of change in the sizes of the populations we observe, such as the migration of individuals into or out of these neighborhoods.

This study is aimed at a broad audience of policymakers, community stakeholders, and interested members of the general public. For this reason, we have attempted to keep our analysis at a relatively high level. Interested readers are directed to the separate annex, which provides more-detailed data and much greater methodological detail on this study. The annex is available at www.rand.org/t/RRA1890-4.

Key Takeaways

This study presents findings from the 2023 Los Angeles Longitudinal Enumeration and Demographic Survey (LA LEADS). This update includes comparisons with the data from previous years and additional information about the experiences and needs of unsheltered populations across three Los Angeles neighborhoods: Hollywood, Skid Row, and Venice. Our key findings are as follows:

• On average, the number of unsheltered residents in these neighborhoods did not grow, a notable change from late September 2021 through 2022, when the rate of growth was 10 percent on an annual basis.
• In areas that had substantial encampment resolution activities, we observed temporary declines in the unsheltered population that lasted two to three months on average. Because of policy changes regarding tent encampments in Venice, the share of unhoused people living literally unsheltered (e.g., without a tent) increased from 20 percent to 46 percent.
• More than one-half of respondents reported a chronic mental health condition, about one-half of respondents reported a chronic physical health condition, and about one-half of respondents reported a substance use disorder. Respondents in Skid Row were older and less healthy than respondents from the other two neighborhoods. Twenty-nine percent of all respondents reported one or more past overdoses, and probable rates of lifetime substance use disorder were 84 percent.
• About one-half of respondents reported being on the streets for three years or longer. About two-thirds of respondents were actively looking for housing. Respondents in Venice were less likely to be actively looking for housing, experienced less time on the streets on average, and were less likely to have been last housed in California.
• About one-half of respondents reported recent engagement with a homelessness outreach worker or case manager. Respondents in Hollywood had more-frequent contacts and higher reports of receiving assistance. Around 45 percent of all respondents reported never receiving an offer of housing or shelter while experiencing homelessness in Los Angeles.
• On average, 10 percent of respondents reported being employed. Three-quarters of respondents had an income of less than $600 per month, with incomes higher in Skid Row and among people who were employed. People living in vehicles were more likely to be employed.

These findings demonstrate the diverse characteristics and acute needs among the unsheltered population in these three Los Angeles neighborhoods that are known for high rates of homelessness. Although the growth rate in unsheltered homelessness appears to have flattened, there is evidence that remaining unsheltered residents may be, on average, more vulnerable.