Rethinking Russia's Threat to NATO

by David A. Shlapak, Michael Johnson

Senior RAND researchers Michael Johnson, David A. Ochmanek, and David Shlapak discuss a series of wargames that examined the probable outcome of a Russian invasion of the Baltic states. Wargames conducted in 2014 and 2015 showed that a near-term Russian invasion could reach the Estonian and Latvian capitals or Tallinn and Riga in less than 60 hours. The research underlying this video presentation is described fully in the RAND report, RR-1253-A, Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank: Wargaming the Defense of the Baltics. That report proposes that a multi-brigade NATO armored force — adequately supported by airpower, land-based fires, and other enablers on the ground and ready to fight at the onset of hostilities — could prevent the rapid overrun of the Baltic states, fundamentally changing the strategic picture as seen from Moscow.

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