A Methodology for Projecting the Electrical Energy Demand of the Residential Sector in California

by C. C. Mow, W. E. Mooz, S. K. Anderson

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This methodology employs traditional extrapolation techniques and end-use and econometric analysis to project the electrical energy demand of the residential sector. Forecasts are based on past trends in energy consumption, expressed in kilowatt-hours per annum, and saturation data for each appliance within three functional groupings: kitchen; lighting, utility, and household maintenance; and environmental control, recreation, and personal care. The effects of electricity and gas prices on consumption were explored through a regression analysis on a cross section of the data. The effects of electrical energy requirements of typical households in each of the five major utility districts were examined for three test cases — one without price increases and two with different prices for electricity and gas. One result based on standard population projections, is that California's residential demand will more than triple in the next 30 years. (See also R-991, R-1106, R-1107.)

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