Impact of Eligibility Requirements and Propensity to Serve on Demographic Representation in the Department of the Air Force

The U.S. Department of the Air Force (DAF) has been working for some time to improve the representation of women and racial and ethnic minorities in its ranks and officer corps so that the DAF reflects the nation that it serves. RAND Corporation research suggests that benchmarking DAF accessions against the general U.S. population lacks important context because it compares DAF demographics to a general population that includes large numbers of people who are neither eligible to serve nor attracted to military service. In addition, RAND research demonstrates that representation of women from a particular racial or ethnic group in the DAF might differ from that of men from the same group relative to a population benchmark; similarly, representation compared with benchmarks within one gender may differ across race and ethnicity. Comparisons with a population benchmark by gender or by race and ethnicity alone mask such differences.

This brief summarizes RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF) research on a process that provides more-relevant benchmarks for assessing DAF demographics and that accurately reflects important gender and racial and ethnic differences.

Approach

The project team used a statistical method that RAND developed to estimate the distribution of gender and race and ethnicity in the U.S. population that is eligible and has a propensity to serve in the military. For eligibility, the analysis used multiple survey-based data sources to assess major factors — age, education, number of children, marital status, body composition, health, aptitude, moral character, and drug use — that narrow the field of eligible candidates. For propensity, the analysis used the annual Monitoring the Future survey of approximately 15,000 12th graders to assess attraction to military service. The team presented benchmarking results for enlisted accessions and for new officers by the source of their accessions: (1) USAFA and (2) ROTC or OTS (see Table 1).

Conclusion

The PAF project team's findings suggest that the DAF should consider gender and race and ethnicity jointly when benchmarking DAF accessions. Examining the intersection of gender and race and ethnicity allows for a more accurate view of the effects of eligibility requirements on demographic distributions. Although the body mass index and height requirements and minimum standards for education and aptitude are barriers for individuals of all races and ethnicities, these criteria affect each gender and racial and ethnic group to a different degree. These differences are important for understanding the representation of demographic subgroups in the DAF.