Louis T. Mariano

Senior Statistician

Washington Office

Education

Ph.D. in statistics, Carnegie Mellon University; M.S. in statistics, Carnegie Mellon University; B.S. in mathematics and statistics, American University

One Page Bio

Overview

Lou Mariano is a senior statistician at the RAND Corporation. His current research includes topics in education, military manpower, and healthcare.

Mariano's education research has focused on evaluations of the implementation and efficacy of school reform efforts; furthering the methodology and application of experimental and quasi-experimental designs; refining methods for estimating teacher contributions to student learning; and the expansion of item response theory models, with emphasis on the reduction of measurement error. His current military manpower research includes investigation of factors impacting the dynamics of career path selection, promotion, retention, and diversity of Air Force personnel.

Mariano holds a Ph.D. in statistics from Carnegie Mellon University.

Research Focus

Recent Projects

Evaluation of the 4-Day School Week
Using Student Achievement Data to Monitor Progress and Performance: Methodological Challenges Presented by COVID-19
Data-Enabled Talent Management through Targeted Benchmarks, Best Practices, and Partnerships
Evaluation of the Long‐Term Effects of Retention under New York City's Student Promotion Policy
Post-operative Nudges to Reduce Opioid Prescribing (POST-OP)

Selected Publications

Kilburn, M. Rebecca, Andrea Phillips, Celia J. Gomez, Louis T. Mariano, Christopher Joseph Doss, Wendy M. Troxel, Emily Morton, and Kevin Estes, Does Four Equal Five? Implementation and Outcomes of the Four-Day School Week, RAND Corporation (RR-A373-1), 2021

Schweig, Jonathan, Andrew McEachin, Megan Kuhfeld, Louis T. Mariano, and Melissa Kay Diliberti, Adapting Course Placement Processes in Response to COVID-19 Disruptions: Guidance for Schools and Districts, RAND Corporation (RR-A1037-1), 2021

Mariano, L.T. and Martorell, P., "The Causal Effects of Grade Retention on Behavioral Outcomes," Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness , 11(2), 2018

Mariano, L.T. and Elliott, M.N., "An Item Response Theory Approach to Estimating Survey Mode Effects: Analysis of Data from a Randomized Mode Experiment," Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology, 5(2), 2017

Lim, Nelson, Louis T. Mariano, Amy G. Cox, David Schulker, and Lawrence M. Hanser, Improving Demographic Diversity in the U.S. Air Force Officer Corps, RAND Corporation (RR-495-AF), 2014

Mariano, Louis T. and Martorell, Paco, "The Academic Effects of Summer Instruction and Retention in New York City," Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 35, 2013

Mariano, L.T., McCaffrey, D.F., and Lockwood, J.R., "A Model For Teacher Effects From Longitudinal Data Without Assuming Vertical Scaling," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, 35, 2010

Mariano, L.T. and Junker, B.W., "Covariates of the Rating Process in Hierarchical Models for Multiple Ratings of Test Items," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, 32(3), 2007

Honors & Awards

Fellow, American Statistical Association
Leonard J. Savage Award for Outstanding Doctoral Dissertation in the Application Methodology of Bayesian Statistics, The International Society for Bayesian Analysis & the American Statistical Association Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Outstanding Reviewer, Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics (2005, 2009, 2013 and 2014), American Educational Research Association

Commentary

Education Policy

Can Grade Retention Help with COVID-19 Learning Recovery in Schools?
Early grade retention is getting more attention as a potential way to make up for missed learning during the pandemic. But retaining kids without providing the necessary supports or failing to identify the right kids using objective criteria will likely yield ineffective results or even lead to adverse effects.
Mar 28, 2023
Brookings Institution's Brown Center Chalkboard

Publications

Draft
Research, Interrupted: Addressing Practical and Methodological Challenges Under Turbulent Conditions
Researchers examine the COVID-19 pandemic as one salient case of a large-scale disruption to schooling that exemplifies the challenges faced by researchers evaluating education interventions and policies under turbulent conditions.
Nov 21, 2023
Research Brief
Impact of Eligibility Requirements and Propensity to Serve on Demographic Representation in the Department of the Air Force
This brief summarizes RAND Project AIR FORCE research on a process that provides relevant benchmarks for assessing Department of the Air Force demographics and that accurately reflects important gender and racial and ethnic differences.
Nov 14, 2023
Journal Article
Think Again: Is Grade Retention Bad for Kids?
In this brief, we provide a review of recent literature on the causal effects of student grade retention and present three policy recommendations for those considering grade retention policies.
Oct 23, 2023
Report
Population Benchmarking for the U.S. Department of the Air Force: Impact of Eligibility Requirements and Propensity to Serve on Demographic Representation
Department of the Air Force accession eligibility criteria affect women and racial and ethnic minority candidates differently than they affect White men. Understanding the eligible population is crucial to growing a diverse workforce.
Oct 17, 2023
Report
Evaluation of the California County Resentencing Pilot Program: Year 2 Findings
The California County Resentencing Pilot Program was established to support and evaluate a collaborative approach to prosecutorial discretion in resentencing eligible incarcerated individuals. The authors document results from year 2 of the program.
Sep 27, 2023
Journal Article
Disparities in Postoperative Opioid Prescribing by Race and Ethnicity: An Electronic Health Records-Based Observational Study from Northern California, 2015-2020
To examine racial and ethnic disparities in postoperative opioid prescribing.
May 24, 2023
Report
Benchmarking Demographic Diversity in Air Force Functional Areas Against Near-Equivalent Civilians: The Air Force Occupational Diversity Benchmarking Workbooks
To allow decisionmakers to discover potential barriers to a diverse and inclusive workforce, the authors created a method to measure diversity in the Department of the Air Force occupations using near-equivalent civilian occupations as benchmarks.
Feb 22, 2023
Report
Evaluation of the California County Resentencing Pilot Program: Year 1 Findings
This evaluation of the California County Resentencing Pilot Program seeks to determine how the program is implemented in nine pilot counties and what the characteristics are of a possible candidate for resentencing.
Oct 3, 2022
Report
U.S. Air Force Enlisted Classification and Reclassification: Potential Improvements Using Machine Learning and Optimization Models
The authors review options for improving processes for classifying and reclassifying enlisted active-duty, non–prior service airmen for initial skills training in the United States Air Force.
Mar 14, 2022
Report
Changes in School Composition During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Implications for School-Average Interim Test Score Use
The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has exacerbated concerns about using school-aggregate test scores to monitor school performance. In this report, researchers investigate how changes to school composition may contaminate aggregate scores.
Jan 19, 2022
Journal Article
Evaluating the Effectiveness of Email-Based Nudges to Reduce Postoperative Opioid Prescribing: Study Protocol of a Randomised Controlled Trial
Study protocol of a randomized controlled trial testing the effectiveness of two behavioral nudges, one based on peer behavior and one based on best practice guidelines, in reducing excessive postoperative opioid prescriptions.
2022
Research Brief
Can Four Equal Five? Assessing the Four-Day School Week
This brief provides information on the implementation and outcomes of a four-day school week using quantitative and qualitative data from a variety of sources, including surveys of parents and students, across six states.
Oct 7, 2021
Report
Does Four Equal Five? Implementation and Outcomes of the Four-Day School Week
The authors provide information on the implementation and outcomes of the four-day school week using quantitative and qualitative data from a variety of sources, including surveys of parents and students in 36 districts in three states.
Oct 7, 2021
Report
Expanding Charter School Capacity: The Case of Propel Montour
Researchers examine the expansion of Propel Schools, a small, regional charter school network in southwestern Pennsylvania, to describe the academic and behavioral experiences of continuing and expansion students from fall 2017 to spring 2020.
Sep 29, 2021
Report
Improving the Representation of Women and Racial/Ethnic Minorities Among U.S. Coast Guard Active-Duty Members
Researchers sought to identify the root causes of underrepresentation for women and members of racial/ethnic minority groups in the U.S. Coast Guard, as well as facilitators of and barriers to increasing diversity, equity, and inclusion.
Aug 11, 2021
Report
Adapting Course Placement Processes in Response to COVID-19 Disruptions: Guidance for Schools and Districts
Because of the pandemic, spring 2020 end-of-year assessments were canceled and schools began the 2020-2021 year without assessment data. The authors compare three strategies to estimate missing test scores and help with course placement decisions.
Feb 16, 2021
Journal Article
Assessment of Postoperative Opioid Prescriptions Before and After Implementation of a Mandatory Prescription Drug Monitoring Program
In this study of adult patients who received a postoperative prescription for opioid medication, mandatory consultation with EHR-based alerts was associated with decreases in prescription quantities.
2021
Journal Article
Developing School Leaders: Findings From a Randomized Control Trial Study of the Executive Development Program and Paired Coaching
This article presents the results of two randomized control trials evaluating the impacts of the National Center on Education and the Economy's Executive Development Program and coaching on schoolwide practices and performance.
2021
Report
Advancement and Retention Barriers in the U.S. Air Force Civilian White Collar Workforce: Implications for Demographic Diversity
This report documents results of a study examining challenges that Air Force civilian women, racial/ethnic minorities, and individuals with disabilities may face in advancing to higher pay grades as well as factors influencing retention decisions.
Sep 3, 2020
Report
Effects of the Executive Development Program and Aligned Coaching for School Principals in Three U.S. States: Investing in Innovation Study Final Report
In this report, part of a series on professional development for school principals, the authors analyze the effects of a professional development program and paired coaching for middle school principals in three states.
Jul 1, 2020
Report
Air Force Manpower Determinants: Options for More-Responsive Processes
The authors examine the process the Air Force uses to determine manpower requirements, compare it with processes used in other services and organizations, and evaluate options for increasing the efficiency of the Air Force process.
Jun 25, 2020
Research Brief
How Does Repeating a Grade Impact Students' High School Persistence and Behavior? The Case of New York City
A study examining the long-term causal effects of student retention in grades 3 through 8 found no evidence of systematic effects on attendance and suspensions. Retention in earlier grades was less likely to produce disadvantageous outcomes.
Jul 30, 2018
Draft
The Effects of Grade Retention on High School Outcomes: Evidence from New York City Schools
Examines the causal impact of grade retention on high school attainment outcomes.
Jul 30, 2018
Report
Training Success for U.S. Air Force Special Operations and Combat Support Specialties: An Analysis of Recruiting, Screening, and Development Processes
This report addresses challenges for implementing new approaches to Air Force high-demand, high-attrition specialty recruiting, screening, and development processes, and takes a holistic approach to identifying methods to fill gaps in processes.
May 15, 2018
Journal Article
An Item Response Theory Approach to Estimating Survey Mode Effects: Analysis of Data from a Randomized Mode Experiment
Survey respondents assigned to an aural mode (e.g., telephone) more often endorse the first and especially the last item compared with those assigned to a visual mode (mail).
Jun 1, 2017
Journal Article
Can College Outreach Programs Improve College Readiness? The Case of the College Bound, St. Louis Program
In the past decade, there has been a proliferation of community- and school-based college readiness programs designed to increase the participation of students who have traditionally been underrepresented in higher education.
May 1, 2016
Report
Recommendations for Improving the Recruiting and Hiring of Los Angeles Firefighters
Reviews the Los Angeles Fire Department's hiring practices as of June 2014 and outlines a recommended new firefighter hiring process.
Jan 22, 2015
Report
Improving Demographic Diversity in the U.S. Air Force Officer Corps
Examines the relative scarcity of minorities and women among senior leaders (i.e., colonel and above) in the uniformed Air Force, with the goal of identifying contributing factors and potential policy responses.
May 20, 2014
Journal Article
The Academic Effects of Summer Instruction and Retention in New York City
This article examines the impacts of summer instruction and test-based grade retention in New York City.
Mar 1, 2013
Draft
Examining the Effectiveness of the College Bound Program: Early Findings
Examines the impact of College Bound, a college readiness program designed to increase the college graduation rates of low-income students, most of whom are first-generation college students.
Feb 27, 2013
Journal Article
A Model for Teacher Effects from Longitudinal Data Without Assuming Vertical Scaling
The authors developed a "generalized persistence" (GP) model, a Bayesian multivariate model for estimating teacher effects that accommodates longitudinal data that are not vertically scaled by allowing less than perfect correlation of a teacher's effects across test administrations.
2010
Periodical
RAND Review: Vol. 33, No. 3, Winter 2009-2010
Features focus on stabilization missions, grade retention, health financing, and RAND's president; other items discuss the European Union, sodium, health insurance, retail medical clinics, energy efficiency, disaster recovery, and alcohol pricing.
Dec 23, 2009
Research Brief
Ending Social Promotion in New York City Public Schools Without Leaving Children Behind
RAND researchers conducted a three-year study of New York City's promotion policy, using interviews, case studies, student surveys, and demographic and test score data to determine its effects on the outcomes of 5th-grade students held to the policy.
Oct 9, 2009
Report
Ending Social Promotion Without Leaving Children Behind: The Case of New York City
The New York City Department of Education asked RAND to conduct a longitudinal evaluation of its 5th-grade promotion policy. The findings provide a comprehensive view of the policy's implementation and its impact on student outcomes.
Sep 29, 2009
Draft
Achievement of Students in Multi-Grade Classrooms: Evidence from the Los Angeles Unified School District
Presents new evidence on the achievement of students in multigrade classrooms.
Aug 5, 2009
Research Brief
Lessons Learned from Developing and Implementing the Qatar Student Assessment System (Arabic version)
This research brief summarizes the development of a standards-based student assessment system in Qatar, lessons for policymakers in Qatar and elsewhere, and challenges in aligning the assessment with future changes in the curriculum standards.
Jul 29, 2009
Research Brief
Lessons Learned from Developing and Implementing the Qatar Student Assessment System
This research brief summarizes the development of a standards-based student assessment system in Qatar, lessons for policymakers in Qatar and elsewhere, and challenges in aligning the assessment with future changes in the curriculum standards.
Jul 1, 2009
Report
Lessons from the Field: Developing and Implementing the Qatar Student Assessment System, 2002-2006
This report recounts the development of Qatar's internationally benchmarked standards-based assessment system, providing important lessons learned for Qatar and other countries that are seeking to implement standards-based educational reforms.
Mar 17, 2009
Research Brief
Health Coverage Options for Military Retirees
This research brief summarizes the results of a 2006 pilot survey of military retirees, providing information on retirees' enrollment in civilian health care plans and reliance on TRICARE, the Department of Defense-sponsored health insurance.
Jul 4, 2007
Report
Civilian Health Insurance Options of Military Retirees: Findings from a Pilot Survey
Results of a pilot survey (in early 2006) of military retirees offer useful information on retirees' health care status, enrollment in civilian health care plans, and reliance on TRICARE, the Department of Defense-sponsored health insurance.
Jun 26, 2007
Journal Article
Bayesian Methods for Scalable Multivariate Value-Added Assessment
Interest in value-added models relying on longitudinal student-level test score data to isolate teachers' contributions to student achievement.
2007
Report
Evaluating Comprehensive School Reform Models at Scale: Focus on Implementation
Describes and applies a methodology for quantitatively measuring a school's level of comprehensive reform, and summarizes results.
Nov 7, 2006
Research Brief
When It Comes to Terrorism, How Prepared Are Local and State Agencies?
This research brief presents results of a survey of state and local response organizations to learn what they have done to improve their ability to respond to terrorist incidents since 9/11, how they have improved, and what still needs improvement.
Nov 7, 2006
Research Brief
Comprehensive School Reform: The Implementation Gap
This research brief explains that at the current level of implementation, comprehensive school reform can be expected to have little effect on student achievement.
Nov 3, 2006
Report
Combating Terrorism: How Prepared Are State and Local Response Organizations?
Results of a national survey of state and local response organizations' activities following 9/11 to improve preparedness to deal with terrorist incidents and other disasters.
Nov 1, 2006
Report
Public Health Preparedness: Integrating Public Health and Hospital Preparedness Programs
Examines different models for coordination that have been employed by local health departments and general acute-care hospitals to improve public health preparedness.
May 19, 2006
Journal Article
Challenges for Value-Added Assessment of Teacher Effects
The use of standardized test scores to facilitate school reform is now a cornerstone of education policy in the United States.
2005
Draft
Assessing The Implementation Of Comprehensive School Reform Models
Oct 20, 2004
Research Brief
Syndromic Surveillance: An Effective Tool for Detecting Bioterrorism?
To aid the early detection of bioterror events, public health officials and researchers have developed a new method called syndromic surveillance.
2004
Journal Article
Syndromic Surveillance: Is It Worth the Effort?
Unlike bombings, bioterrorism can be invisible, unapparent until people become ill, spreading silently as infected people interact with others.
2004