Louis T. Mariano

Photo of Louis Mariano
Senior Statistician; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School
Washington Office


Ph.D. in statistics, Carnegie Mellon University; M.S. in statistics, Carnegie Mellon University; B.S. in mathematics and statistics, American University


Lou Mariano is a senior statistician at the RAND Corporation. His current research includes topics in education, military manpower, and healthcare.

Mariano's education research has focused on evaluations of the implementation and efficacy of school reform efforts; furthering the methodology and application of experimental and quasi-experimental designs; refining methods for estimating teacher contributions to student learning; and the expansion of item response theory models, with emphasis on the reduction of measurement error. His current military manpower research includes investigation of factors impacting the dynamics of career path selection, promotion, retention, and diversity of Air Force personnel.

Mariano holds a Ph.D. in statistics from Carnegie Mellon University.

Recent Projects

  • Evaluation of the 4-Day School Week
  • Using Student Achievement Data to Monitor Progress and Performance: Methodological Challenges Presented by COVID-19
  • Data-Enabled Talent Management through Targeted Benchmarks, Best Practices, and Partnerships
  • Evaluation of the Long‐Term Effects of Retention under New York City's Student Promotion Policy
  • Post-operative Nudges to Reduce Opioid Prescribing (POST-OP)

Selected Publications

Mariano, L.T. and Martorell, P. , "The Causal Effects of Grade Retention on Behavioral Outcomes," Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness , 11(2), 2018

Mariano, L.T. and Elliott, M.N., "An Item Response Theory Approach to Estimating Survey Mode Effects: Analysis of Data from a Randomized Mode Experiment," Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology, 5(2), 2017

Lim, N., Mariano, L.T., Cox, A., Schulker, D., and Hanser, L., Improving Diversity in the U.S. Air Force Officer Corps, RAND (RR-495-AF), 2014

Mariano, Louis T. and Martorell, Paco, "The Academic Effects of Summer Instruction and Retention in New York City," Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 35, 2013

Mariano, L.T., McCaffrey, D.F., and Lockwood, J.R., "A Model For Teacher Effects From Longitudinal Data Without Assuming Vertical Scaling," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, 35, 2010

Lockwood JR, McCaffrey DF, Mariano LT and Setodji C., "Bayesian Methods for Scalable Multivariate Value-Added Assessment," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, 32(2), 2007

Le, V., Mariano, L.T., and Faxon-Mills, S., "Can College Outreach Programs Improve College Readiness? The Case of the College Bound, St. Louis Program," Research in Higher Education, 57(3), 2016

Mariano, L.T. and Junker, B.W., "Covariates of the Rating Process in Hierarchical Models for Multiple Ratings of Test Items," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, 32(3), 2007

Honors & Awards

  • Fellow, American Statistical Association
  • Leonard J. Savage Award for Outstanding Doctoral Dissertation in the Application Methodology of Bayesian Statistics, The International Society for Bayesian Analysis & the American Statistical Association Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
  • Outstanding Reviewer, Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics (2005, 2009, 2013 and 2014), American Educational Research Association