An Improved Econometric Model of Metropolitan Employment and Population Growth

by John H. Niedercorn


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A description of an econometric model designed to explain the growth of employment and population in 36 of the nation's largest metropolitan areas. The model is formulated, estimated, and tested. Forecasts made with it indicate that population and employment growth will be rapid in most of these areas. Central cities will become increasingly specialized in white-collar employment, while blue-collar employment will tend to move to the suburbs. Increased commuter traffic between the central city and its suburbs is likely in a majority of the 36 metropolitan areas.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Research memorandum series. The Research Memorandum was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 1973 that represented working papers meant to report current results of RAND research to appropriate audiences.

This research in the public interest was supported by RAND, using discretionary funds made possible by the generosity of RAND's donors, the fees earned on client-funded research, and independent research and development (IR&D) funds provided by the Department of Defense.

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