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PRISM 2011 Base

Mode-Destination Model Estimation

by James Fox, Bhanu Patruni, Andrew Daly, Sunil Patil

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PRISM West Midlands is a travel demand model forecasting system which was developed by RAND Europe and Mott MacDonald on behalf of the seven metropolitan districts in the West Midlands Metropolitan Area, the Highways Agency and Centro. The model system is required to be responsive to a wide range of policy levers, and to assess the impact of different policies on specific segments of the population. The original model development was undertaken between 2002 and 2004, with a base year of 2001, and a number of enhancements have been made to the model system since 2004, including adding incomes to the model, and an improved treatment of cost sensitivity and updating the base year to 2006.

In the PRISM Refresh project, the demand and network models in PRISM have been more fundamentally updated to reflect a 2011 base year. RAND Europe's role was to re-estimate the demand models using household interview data collected between 2009 and 2012, and deliver to Mott MacDonald an operational demand model implementation that can run together with the network models in the overall PRISM model system. The work was again undertaken on behalf of the seven metropolitan districts in the West Midlands Metropolitan Area, the Highways Agency and Centro.

This report documents the development of the updated mode-destination models. Models have been developed for 14 travel purposes, all of which represent travellers' choices of travel mode and destination. The models for some travel purposes also include the choice of access mode and station for train and metro travel, allowing park-and-ride travel to be explicitly represented. However, bus park-and-ride travel is not modelled. Choice of time of day of travel for car drivers is also incorporated to allow representation of peak pricing policies and the impact of increased congestion in the peak periods. For other models of travel, all-day demand is allocated to the model time periods using fixed factors.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    Modelling assumptions

  • Chapter Three

    Level of service data

  • Chapter Four

    Model specification

  • Chapter Five

    Model results

  • Chapter Six

    Model validation

  • Chapter Seven

    Summary

  • Appendix A

    Tour building analysis

  • Appendix B

    Parking cost data

  • Appendix C

    Model results

  • Appendix D

    Car driver tour length distributions

Research conducted by

The research described in this report was prepared for Mott MacDonald and conducted by RAND Europe.

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