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PRISM West Midlands is a travel demand model forecasting system which was developed by RAND Europe and Mott MacDonald on behalf of the seven metropolitan districts in the West Midlands Metropolitan Area, the Highways Agency and Centro. The model system is required to be responsive to a wide range of policy levers, and to assess the impact of different policies on specific segments of the population. The original model development was undertaken between 2002 and 2004, with a base year of 2001, and a number of enhancements have been made to the model system since 2004, including adding incomes to the model, and an improved treatment of cost sensitivity and updating the base year to 2006.

In the PRISM Refresh project, the demand and network models in PRISM have been more fundamentally updated to reflect a 2011 base year. RAND Europe's role was to re-estimate the demand models using household interview data collected between 2009 and 2012, and deliver to Mott MacDonald an operational demand model implementation that can run together with the network models in the overall PRISM model system. The work was again undertaken on behalf of the seven metropolitan districts in the West Midlands Metropolitan Area, the Highways Agency and Centro.

This report documents the implementation of the new demand models. The implementation comprises three main components: the Population Model, which predicts the future West Midlands population by geographical zone and population segment, the travel demand models, which predict total transport demand for that future population, and distributes that demand over mode, destination and time period alternatives, and the Final Processing Model, which processes the outputs from the travel demand models and applies a pivoting procedure in order to generate trip matrices for assignment to the highway and public transport networks.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    Population segments

  • Chapter Three

    The Population Model

  • Chapter Four

    Travel demand models

  • Chapter Five

    Final processing

  • Chapter Six

    Base year validation

  • Chapter Seven

    Summary

  • Appendix A

    Mean proportions

  • Appendix B

    Detailed TravDem validation

Research conducted by

The research described in this report was prepared for Mott MacDonald and conducted by RAND Europe.

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