Assessing Force Sufficiency and Risk Using RAND's Multi-Period Assessment of Force Flow (MPAFF) Tool

This report describes RAND's Multi-Purpose Assessment of Force Flow (MPAFF) tool for conducting quick, time-phased analysis of force sufficiency under a variety of assumptions on force generation policies, readiness policies, and force employment policies for the U.S. Army. This tool is part of a larger analytic approach developed by RAND to assess the risks and costs of proposed changes in Army force structures and associated readiness and force generation policies in a more rapid way than traditional assessment approaches, while preserving enough fidelity to continue to support Army decisionmakers. The MPAFF tool comes in two variants. The original MPAFF tool is designed to provide quick-turn analysis to support Army force and budget planning. The MPAFF-J variant provides the same analysis in a package that supports running thousands (even millions) of cases rapidly to enable sensitivity analysis and exploration of the robustness of potential policy options. The approach embraced by both variants uses input data generally available to Army planners and makes use of existing models and parameters available to the Army and RAND. The information provided by this analytic approach provides insight on the capacity and capability of an Army force structure to meet various strategic demands, as well as the effects of broad changes to policies related to force size, capabilities mix, force generation and readiness, reserve component usage, and beliefs about future threats.