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Selecting recruits who will complete their term of enlistment is very important for both maintaining Army readiness and minimizing cost. This report describes a recruit selection tool that estimates prospective outcomes and costs for different combinations of recruits' cognitive, noncognitive, demographic, physical, and behavioral attributes. The tool assesses the effects of multiple, simultaneous changes in the selection of prospects on losses during the first term, on the incidence of certain adverse personnel actions, and on specific reasons for early separation from the Army. This enables the Army to identify potential changes to selection of youth based on a variety of attributes in order to expand supply smartly or to decrease the rates of targeted adverse outcomes, and to strategically examine trade-offs in outcomes and costs associated with changes in the characteristics of the recruit cohort.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    Research Approach for Initial Phase of Work

  • Chapter Three

    Construction of Recruit Characteristic Selection Tool and Simulation of Effects of Changes in Recruit Characteristics

  • Chapter Four

    Summary and Conclusions

  • Appendix A

    Supplemental Analyses

  • Appendix B

    Recruit Selection Tool Illustrations

  • Appendix C

    Use of Recruit Selection Tool

Research conducted by

The research described in this report was prepared for the United States Army was conducted by the Personnel, Training, and Health Program within the RAND Arroyo Center.

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