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Estimating the economic costs of antimicrobial resistance

Model and Results

by Jirka Taylor, Marco Hafner, Erez Yerushalmi, Richard Smith, Jacopo Bellasio, Raffaele Vardavas, Teresa Bienkowska-Gibbs, Jennifer Rubin

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The independent Review on AMR led by the economist Jim O'Neill commissioned RAND Europe to conduct a study estimating the global costs of antimicrobial resistance until 2050 in the absence of any progress in tackling the challenge. We developed a general equilibrium model, which calculated the extent of losses to the world economy caused by decreases in the supply of labour resulting from resistant hospital acquired infections and selected major infectious diseases (HIV, TB, malaria). Our approach incorporated a set of seven scenarios with varying rates of future resistance, time of onset of increases in resistance, and availability of effective second-line therapy.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    Conceptual approach and scope of the study

  • Chapter Three

    Method: A dynamic general equilibrium model

  • Chapter Four

    Applying the theoretical model to AMR

  • Chapter Five

    Results

  • Chapter Six

    Sensitivity analyses and additional calculations

  • Chapter Seven

    Discussion

  • Chapter Eight

    Conclusion

  • Appendix A

    Regional groupings

  • Appendix B

    Detailed discussion of health data components

  • Appendix C

    Detailed description of the economic data: social accounting matrix

  • Appendix D

    Summary of assumptions and limitations

Research conducted by

The research described in this report was prepared for the Independent Review on Antimicrobial Resistance and conducted by RAND Europe.

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