Evolving patterns and impacts of migration

Global societal trends to 2030: Thematic report 4

by Svitlana Kobzar, Tess Hellgren, Stijn Hoorens, Dmitry Khodyakov, Ohid Yaqub

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This Research Report forms part of our series on global societal trends and their impact on the EU in 2030. This analysis is embedded within the framework of the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) set up to develop a lasting framework to assess global trends and to develop policy responses across EU institutions over the next institutional cycle (2014–2019). The first phase of the project assessed the long-term, international, domestic, economic and political trends facing the European Union over the next two decades; the second phase of the project split trends into three streams, namely the economy, governance and power, and society. RAND Europe's assessment of likely global societal trends constituted 'Trend Report 2 — Society' for this second phase.

This report presents the evidence base, uncertainties and potential trajectories surrounding trends in one of the six major themes which form part of Trend Report 2 — Society, namely migration. The report analyses the impact of migration worldwide, the factors influencing migration and its relation to urbanisation, and examines the future of migration to Europe. The changes explored in this report relate to a transformation in the nature of migration, and the many types of existing migration flows.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    The worldwide impact of international migration is substantial

  • Chapter Two

    International migration is characterised by an evolving diversity of types and patterns of migrants

  • Chapter Three

    Globally, internal migration will continue to be both a driver and a result of urbanisation

  • Chapter Four

    In Europe the attractiveness of migrants' receiving climate will help determine the future of international migration trends

Research conducted by

The research described in this report was prepared for the Bureau of European Policy Advisers, BEPA and conducted by RAND Europe.

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