Using results from a literature review; expert discussions; operational, technical, and strategic modeling; and case studies, the authors evaluate the utility the U.S. Air Force (USAF) might get from electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, how much influence the USAF has on technical development and supply chains, and options to transition emerging commercial technology to the USAF to recommend an eVTOL strategy for the USAF.

Amping Airpower—Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing for the U.S. Air Force

Military Utility, Market Dynamics, and Warfighter Adoption

Dahlia Anne Goldfeld, Lauren A. Mayer, Jeffrey S. Brown, Shawn Cochran, Elizabeth Hastings Roer, Sydney Litterer, Richard Mason, Jim Mignano, Samantha McBirney, Carlos A. Villegas

ResearchPublished Sep 30, 2024

Billions of dollars from industry have been poured into the development of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft for future urban mobility. Air Force Research Laboratory founded Agility Prime to shape and accelerate the eVTOL market. In this report, the authors evaluate the utility the U.S. Air Force (USAF) might get from eVTOL aircraft, how much influence the USAF has on technical development and supply chains, and options to transition emerging commercial technology to the USAF to recommend an eVTOL strategy for the USAF.

This research involved a literature review, expert discussions, operational modeling, aircraft performance modeling, electric charging and battery modeling, strategic modeling, and case studies. The main outputs are measures of eVTOL military utility, forecasted military market share, the future eVTOL supply chain geography, and feasible transition routes that the USAF could use to adopt eVTOL aircraft.

Among the findings is that, while eVTOL aircraft could likely benefit select USAF missions, eVTOL aircraft are unlikely to be transformational to the USAF. Furthermore, injecting capital into eVTOL firms is not likely to have Agility Prime's desired effect of shaping the domestic eVTOL industry. The authors recommend that Agility Prime focus on two lines of effort: one for small-scale operational use and live experiments, and another to foster and continue collaboration with eVTOL companies in pursuit of autonomous flight. This research was completed in July 2022. It has not been subsequently revised.

Key Findings

A revenue-generating eVTOL market is on the brink of emerging

  • Commercial viability hinges on sufficient charging infrastructure, pilot training, safety, and public trust.
  • Today's state-of-the-art eVTOL aircraft can carry a 1,000-lb payload for 150 to 200 nmi. Plausible future solid-state lithium batteries, lightweight hydrogen fuel cells, or hybrid fuel-electric aircraft model could significantly increase that range or payload.

eVTOL aircraft could benefit select missions today

  • One example would be using eVTOL aircraft to replace car transport of security forces at the Malmstrom Air Force Base missile fields and other very large facilities. Another example would be to provide operational support airlift in a future high-end fight when transport aircraft, such as C-130s, are in short supply.
  • eVTOL technology also confers resilience through runway and jet fuel independence.
  • However, eVTOLs are unlikely to be transformational today, and no major command appears ready to sponsor a eVTOL capability today. Stakeholders suggested that autonomous flight and increased range, payload, and hover would enhance eVTOL attractiveness.

The USAF's ability to influence production of eVTOL aircraft to meet military-specific requirements is limited

  • USAF eVTOL demand will constitute a fraction of a percent of the projected market; the USAF lacks significant mechanisms to shape the commercial market.
  • Security and reliability vulnerabilities exist. While no single foreign nation dominates manufacturing, certain countries do dominate the manufacturing of important inputs.

Transitioning emerging commercial technologies to the warfighter is challenging

  • Experimenting and using eVTOL aircraft for small-scale operations is the best path forward to collect feedback and showcase the technology.

Recommendations

  • Agility Prime should lead acquisition and experimentation efforts to buy, lease, or acquire as a service a few of the most-capable eVTOL aircraft for small-scale operational use and live experiments.
  • Agility Prime should sustain relationships with eVTOL companies to foster nonmonetary collaboration, particularly in pursuit of autonomous flight.
  • Agility Prime should support government entities working on eVTOL Federal Aviation Administration certifications, air traffic control regulations, and pilot requirements.
  • Agility Prime should broadly share knowledge about eVTOL supply chain risks to improve supply chain resource management for key inputs that are also critical for broader national security objectives.
  • The Office of the Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition and Air Force Futures should develop tools and processes to prepare for adoption of the next game-changing emerging commercial technologies, especially ones that do not immediately align with a capability gap.

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Document Details

  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Available
  • Year: 2024
  • Print Format: Paperback
  • Paperback Pages: 170
  • Paperback Price: $49.95
  • Paperback ISBN/EAN: 1-9774-1404-4
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/RRA1524-2
  • Document Number: RR-A1524-2

Citation

RAND Style Manual
Goldfeld, Dahlia Anne, Lauren A. Mayer, Jeffrey S. Brown, Shawn Cochran, Elizabeth Hastings Roer, Sydney Litterer, Richard Mason, Jim Mignano, Samantha McBirney, and Carlos A. Villegas, Amping Airpower—Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing for the U.S. Air Force: Military Utility, Market Dynamics, and Warfighter Adoption, RAND Corporation, RR-A1524-2, 2024. As of October 15, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1524-2.html
Chicago Manual of Style
Goldfeld, Dahlia Anne, Lauren A. Mayer, Jeffrey S. Brown, Shawn Cochran, Elizabeth Hastings Roer, Sydney Litterer, Richard Mason, Jim Mignano, Samantha McBirney, and Carlos A. Villegas, Amping Airpower—Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing for the U.S. Air Force: Military Utility, Market Dynamics, and Warfighter Adoption. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2024. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1524-2.html. Also available in print form.
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