Following the failure of recent efforts by the United States to engage North Korea in denuclearization negotiations, the author proposed and tested an approach to negotiations, called the portfolio method, that addresses the reasons for past failures in an effort to develop action plans that will successfully engage all sides. The author assembled a team of experts, who went through the steps for portfolio creation and provided a review.

Engagement with North Korea

A Portfolio-Based Approach to Diplomacy

Rafiq Dossani

ResearchPublished Oct 26, 2020

Following the failure of recent efforts by the United States to engage North Korea in denuclearization negotiations, the author proposed and tested an approach to negotiations, called the portfolio method, that addresses the reasons for past failures in an effort to develop action plans that will successfully engage all sides. The elements of the portfolio method are (1) the inclusion of countries with national interests that overlap those of the United States and North Korea, (2) prior agreement on the goals of negotiation between the negotiating parties, (3) the inclusion of primarily hard commitments in agreements, (4) the incorporation of the preferences of in-country stakeholders, (5) the linking of multiple areas of negotiation, and (6) trust-building mechanisms.

To test the portfolio method, the author assembled a team of experts, who went through the steps for portfolio creation with actual cases using the portfolio method and provided a review. The author used the method of Track II dialogue to assemble experts who are nonstate actors with differing national interests to investigate how breakdowns in negotiations can be addressed.

The action plans were first reviewed for the support they would receive from in-country stakeholders. Second, experts discussed combinations of action plans that would meet the negotiation goals. Using this discussion, experts proposed three portfolios with different levels of risk, trade-offs, and ongoing commitments. Third, the expert panel identified the roles that stakeholder countries could play with regard to ensuring that the agreements succeed.

Key Findings

  • In his assessment of past failures, the author identified three principal reasons for failure that would need to be addressed in future negotiations: (1) disagreements on the goals of negotiations, (2) inadequate domestic and international support (both state and nonstate), and (3) the failure to use trust-building mechanisms.
  • The expert panel resulted in the recommendation of three portfolios, each containing diplomatic, economic, and security components. The expert panel also recommended roles that each stakeholder country (the United States, China, North Korea, and South Korea) would play in the implementation of the agreement.
  • The expert dialogue was generally supportive of the portfolio method and its key elements because it made explicit the condition that official negotiations on action plans must be based on a pre-agreed framework of goals and other elements. The experts also welcomed the insights that considering trade-offs brought to the analysis, such as recognizing a country's bargaining power.

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Document Details

  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Available
  • Year: 2020
  • Print Format: Paperback
  • Paperback Pages: 88
  • Paperback Price: $21.00
  • Paperback ISBN/EAN: 978-1-9774-0600-2
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/RRA432-1
  • Document Number: RR-A432-1

Citation

RAND Style Manual
Dossani, Rafiq, Engagement with North Korea: A Portfolio-Based Approach to Diplomacy, RAND Corporation, RR-A432-1, 2020. As of October 10, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA432-1.html
Chicago Manual of Style
Dossani, Rafiq, Engagement with North Korea: A Portfolio-Based Approach to Diplomacy. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2020. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA432-1.html. Also available in print form.
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This research was sponsored by the Korea Foundation and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD).

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