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This study examines how the United States Air Force (USAF) can sustain sufficient nuclear skills and experience within the Air Force Nuclear Enterprise. The research specifically examines the overall officer nuclear workforce's accumulated nuclear experience and determines where skill gaps exist based on the competencies required for nuclear-related jobs. Nuclear personnel without sufficient nuclear skill are less likely to adequately perform their nuclear-oriented jobs and their decreased job performance likely impairs or at least creates inefficient operations for the USAF's nuclear deterrence capability. Assuming that human capital development is one relevant factor that helps produce effective nuclear operations, this dissertation investigates how nuclear workforce policies might properly develop and sustain useful and effective human capital that consequently provides the USAF with safe, secure, and credible nuclear operations. These workforce policies will examine ways to improve the development and utilization of officer personnel within the new Air Force Global Strike Command (AFGSC) and identify viable policy alternatives that allow Nuclear Enterprise policymakers to shape the career fields in preferred ways.
Table of Contents
Chapter One
Introduction
Chapter Two
Human Capital Management: Theory and Competency-Based Analysis
Chapter Three
Demand: Competencies Required for Nuclear-Related Jobs
Chapter Four
Supply: Competencies Acquired in Nuclear Related Jobs
Chapter Five
Gaps Between Supply and Demand
Chapter Six
Modeling Nuclear Officer Development
Chapter Seven
Conclusions and Recommendations
Appendix A
US Nuclear Operations Background
Appendix B
AFGSC Officer Career Field Demographics
Appendix C
Officer AFSC Explained
Appendix D
SEI Codes
Appendix E
Nuclear Enterprise Competencies
Appendix F
11B, 12B, and 13SXC Jobs by Organization
Appendix G
AFGSC Organization Chart
Appendix H
Job Group Cluster Analysis
Appendix I
Officer Cohort Survival Analysis
Appendix J
Competency Gap Statistics
Appendix K
Simulation Scenarios
Appendix L
Comparing System Designs to a Standard Design
Appendix M
Simulation Output Data Analysis
Appendix N
Common Random Numbers
Appendix O
Increasing Retention Rate Distribution
Research conducted by
This document was submitted as a dissertation in January 2011 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of Bart Bennett (Chair), Ray Conley, and Jim Quinlivan.
This publication is part of the RAND Corporation Dissertation series. Pardee RAND dissertations are produced by graduate fellows of the Pardee RAND Graduate School, the world's leading producer of Ph.D.'s in policy analysis. The dissertations are supervised, reviewed, and approved by a Pardee RAND faculty committee overseeing each dissertation.
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