Terrorism Risk Modeling for Intelligence Analysis and Infrastructure Protection
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The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has adopted a focused approach to risk reduction. DHS is moving increasingly to risk analysis and risk-based resource allocation, a process that is designed to manage the greatest risks instead of attempting to protect everything. This report applies a probabilistic terrorism model that is broadly applied in the insurance industry to assess risk across cities, to assess risks within specific cities, and to assist intelligence analysis. Among the authors' conclusions: Terrorism risk is concentrated in a small number of cities, with most cities having negligible relative risk, so terrorism estimates such as those described in the report should be incorporated into the grant allocation assessment process. DHS should consider funding the development of city profiles of major metropolitan areas receiving DHS preparedness grants. It should also develop descriptions of terrorist attack planning and operations that can be used to translate estimates from risk models of likely attack scenarios into detailed recommendations. Finally, DHS should develop tabletop exercises to test the scenarios and provide feedback.
Table of Contents
Chapter One
Terrorism Risk Models for the Insurance Industry: A New Resource for Intelligence Analysts
Chapter Two
Terrorism Risk Modeling for the Insurance Industry: The RMS Probabilistic Terrorism Model
Chapter Three
Application 1: Terrorism Risk in UASI Areas
Chapter Four
Application 2: Profiling Terrorism Risk in Las Vegas
Chapter Five
Application 3: Informing Threat Assessment Using the RMS Terrorism Risk Model
Chapter Six
Conclusions and Recommendations
Appendix A
RMS Terrorism Advisors' Network
Appendix B
City Tiers and Likelihoods from the RMS Probabilistic Terrorism Model
Appendix C
Definitions of Fiscal Year 2005 UASI-Eligible Urban Areas
Appendix D
Example of Filtering Risk-Analysis Results Using Intelligence Assessments of Terrorist Capabilities
The research described in this report was conducted by the RAND Center for Terrorism Risk Management Policy for the Department of Homeland Security.
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