Terrorism Risk Modeling for Intelligence Analysis and Infrastructure Protection

Henry H. Willis, Tom LaTourrette, Terrence K. Kelly, Scot Hickey, Samuel Neill

ResearchPublished Sep 16, 2007

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has adopted a focused approach to risk reduction. DHS is moving increasingly to risk analysis and risk-based resource allocation, a process that is designed to manage the greatest risks instead of attempting to protect everything. This report applies a probabilistic terrorism model that is broadly applied in the insurance industry to assess risk across cities, to assess risks within specific cities, and to assist intelligence analysis. Among the authors' conclusions: Terrorism risk is concentrated in a small number of cities, with most cities having negligible relative risk, so terrorism estimates such as those described in the report should be incorporated into the grant allocation assessment process. DHS should consider funding the development of city profiles of major metropolitan areas receiving DHS preparedness grants. It should also develop descriptions of terrorist attack planning and operations that can be used to translate estimates from risk models of likely attack scenarios into detailed recommendations. Finally, DHS should develop tabletop exercises to test the scenarios and provide feedback.

Order a Print Copy

Format
Paperback
Page count
94 pages
List Price
$20.00
Buy link
Add to Cart

Topics

Document Details

  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Available
  • Year: 2007
  • Print Format: Paperback
  • Paperback Pages: 94
  • Paperback Price: $20.00
  • Paperback ISBN/EAN: 978-0-8330-3974-3
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/TR386
  • Document Number: TR-386-DHS

Citation

RAND Style Manual
Willis, Henry H., Tom LaTourrette, Terrence K. Kelly, Scot Hickey, and Samuel Neill, Terrorism Risk Modeling for Intelligence Analysis and Infrastructure Protection, RAND Corporation, TR-386-DHS, 2007. As of September 23, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR386.html
Chicago Manual of Style
Willis, Henry H., Tom LaTourrette, Terrence K. Kelly, Scot Hickey, and Samuel Neill, Terrorism Risk Modeling for Intelligence Analysis and Infrastructure Protection. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2007. https://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR386.html. Also available in print form.
BibTeX RIS

The research described in this report was conducted by the RAND Center for Terrorism Risk Management Policy for the Department of Homeland Security.

This publication is part of the RAND technical report series. RAND technical reports, products of RAND from 2003 to 2011, presented research findings on a topic limited in scope or intended for a narrow audience; discussions of the methodology employed in research; literature reviews, survey instruments, modeling exercises, guidelines for practitioners and research professionals, and supporting documentation; and preliminary findings. All RAND technical reports were subject to rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.

RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.