What Even Superintelligent Computers Can’t Do
A Preliminary Framework for Identifying Fundamental Limits Constraining Artificial General Intelligence
Published Jun 26, 2025
Commentators anticipate that artificial general intelligence (AGI) will have unprecedented geopolitical impact because it will be able to invent new technologies. However, the laws of the physical universe impose fundamental limits such that we can predict with confidence things that even the most powerful forms of AGI will not be able to do. The authors outline an approach for estimating the likelihood that a particular technology or capability is attainable.
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Document Details
- Copyright: RAND Corporation
- Availability: Web-Only
- Year: 2025
- Pages: 19
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/WRA3990-1
- Document Number: WR-A3990-1
Citation
RAND Style Manual
Geist, Edward and Alvin Moon, What Even Superintelligent Computers Can’t Do: A Preliminary Framework for Identifying Fundamental Limits Constraining Artificial General Intelligence, RAND Corporation, WR-A3990-1, 2025. As of September 10, 2026: https://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WRA3990-1.html
Chicago Manual of Style
Geist, Edward and Alvin Moon, What Even Superintelligent Computers Can’t Do: A Preliminary Framework for Identifying Fundamental Limits Constraining Artificial General Intelligence. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WRA3990-1.html.
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