Edward Geist

Is Putin Irrational? What Nuclear Strategic Theory Says About Deterrence of Potentially Irrational Opponents

Increasingly isolated and desperate, Putin might try to suddenly escalate the Ukraine conflict rather than back down in the face of international opposition. The United States and its allies must account for the possibility that even in the face of credible deterrent threats Putin might double down and lash out.

Nuclear Strategists Know How Dangerous the Debt Fight Is

Nuclear-war strategists' work offers a warning for Congress: The more times a game is played, the more treacherous it becomes, because when both sides believe catastrophe will always be averted in the end, each behaves more rashly. In the debt-ceiling dispute, the United States could end up defaulting precisely because each side keeps waiting for the other to blink.

The U.S. Doesn't Need More Nuclear Weapons to Counter China's New Missile Silos

There's little reason for the United States to worry much about whatever the Chinese military is building in hundreds of new missile silos in China. America and its allies have ways to counter any threats these silo fields pose.

Defeat Is Possible

If the United States is to have a reasonable hope of winning a war, it needs to think about what it would be like to lose. An essential first step could be to start taking the prospect of protracted near-peer conflict seriously.

Military Deception: AI's Killer App?

Contrary to the promise that AI would deliver an omniscient view of everything happening in the battlespace—the goal of U.S. military planners for decades—it now appears that technologies of misdirection are winning. Military deception, in short, could prove to be AI’s killer app.

Will Artificial Intelligence Undermine Nuclear Stability?

In the coming years, AI-enabled progress in tracking and targeting adversaries' nuclear weapons could undermine the foundations of nuclear stability. Will AI someday be able to guide strategy decisions about escalation or even launching nuclear weapons?

Commercial Book

Deterrence Under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare

Using insights from computer science, Deterrence Under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare evaluates how AI could make nuclear war winnable, and whether that possibility is likely.

Commentary

Qualities Precede Quantities: Deciding How Much Is Enough for U.S. Nuclear Forces

Nuclear developments by potential adversaries have led some to argue that the United States needs to expand its own nuclear forces. The author argues that adversary perceptions should be the primary criteria for sizing U.S. nuclear forces.

Report

Opportunities and Risks of 5G Military Use in Europe

The authors consider U.S. military uses of the fifth-generation technology standard for cellular communications in a notional 2030 time frame, concentrating on a future smart logistics mission in the Baltics and surrounding countries.

Report

Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: Overarching Findings and Recommendations

This report synthesizes the findings and recommendations from two companion reports on intrastate proxy wars: civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state.

Report

Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: State Motivations and Future Trends

The authors used quantitative analysis and case studies of China, Iran, and Russia to examine the causes and likely future trends in proxy wars: civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state.

Report

Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: Military Implications

The authors examine the military implications of intrastate proxy wars (civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state) via a literature review and four case studies.

Report

Russian Military Strategy: Organizing Operations for the Initial Period of War

The authors of this report identify and examine several factors to assess the orientation of Russian military strategy, including the balance of power, Russian diplomacy with China, views on future war, and trends in force readiness and mobilization.

Report

Emerging Technology Beyond 2035: Scenario-Based Technology Assessment for Future Military Contingencies

This report presents the development and implementation of a technology assessment process to help the Army understand the implications of key emerging technologies that could be important for Army missions in the years 2035 to 2050.

Report

Adaptive Engagement for Undergoverned Spaces: Concepts, Challenges, and Prospects for New Approaches

This report is a compendium of expert insights regarding opportunities for investing in science and technology to increase U.S. ability to engage in long-term competition in undergoverned spaces.

Report

Disrupting Deterrence: Examining the Effects of Technologies on Strategic Deterrence in the 21st Century

The authors examined potential implications of emerging technologies for deterrence in the context of U.S. national security policy. They identified long-term effects on two major aspects of the deterrence dynamic -- effectiveness and stability.

Report

Mitigating Challenges to U.S.-Russia Strategic Stability

The authors examine the challenges to the U.S.-Russian bilateral strategic stability paradigm and assess possible policy changes that could address these challenges.

Report

Anticipating Adversary Military Interventions

The authors explore where, how, and how often U.S. adversaries (specifically, Russia, China, and Iran) have intervened militarily since 1946 and identify why these adversaries initiated military interventions and why they might do so in the future.

Report

Russia's Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts

Despite Russia's relatively small global economic footprint, it has engaged in more interventions than any other U.S. competitor since 1991. In this report, the authors assess when, where, and why Russia conducts military interventions.

Report

Exploring the Feasibility and Utility of Machine Learning-Assisted Command and Control: Volume 1, Findings and Recommendations

This report describes the potential for artificial intelligence (AI) systems to assist in Air Force command and control (C2). The authors develop a framework and metrics for assessing the suitability of a given AI system for a given C2 problem.

Report

Exploring the Feasibility and Utility of Machine Learning-Assisted Command and Control: Volume 2, Supporting Technical Analysis

This volume serves as the technical analysis to a report concerning the potential for artificial intelligence systems to assist in Air Force command and control (C2).

Report

Defense Acquisition in Russia and China

This report discusses recent research into the research, development, and acquisition processes of Russia and China—both doctrinally and in practice—and identifies areas in which each country excels and where each country has challenges.

Commentary

Competing with Russia Militarily: Implications of Conventional and Nuclear Conflicts

In this Perspective, the authors illuminate the implications of a conventional military confrontation between NATO and Russia in Europe and the associated risk of nuclear escalation.

Report

Technology Innovation and the Future of Air Force Intelligence Analysis: Volume 2, Technical Analysis and Supporting Material

The authors recommend tools, technologies, and processes to address the growing demand for Air Force Distributed Common Ground System support as it relates to intelligence squadrons within the 480th Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Wing.

Report

Technology Innovation and the Future of Air Force Intelligence Analysis: Volume 1, Findings and Recommendations

There is growing demand for the Air Force Distributed Common Ground System to analyze sensor data. The authors assessed how new tools and technologies, including artificial intelligence and machine learning, can help meet these demands.

Research Brief

The Department of Defense's Posture for Artificial Intelligence: Assessment and Recommendations for Improvement

In this report, RAND Corporation researchers assess the state of artificial intelligence relevant to the U.S. Department of Defense and provide recommendations for the future of the department's artificial intelligence posture.

Report

Counter-Radicalization Bot Research: Using Social Bots to Fight Violent Extremism

As the online recruitment of violent extremist organizations grows, the U.S. government may benefit from promising emerging technology tools to rapidly detect targets of such recruitment efforts and deliver counter-radicalization content to them.

Report

The Department of Defense Posture for Artificial Intelligence: Assessment and Recommendations

In this report, the authors assess the state of artificial intelligence (AI) relevant to DoD, conduct an independent assessment of the Department of Defense's posture in AI, and put forth a set of recommendations to enhance that posture.

Report

Understanding Russia's Intervention in Syria

Russia's 2015 military intervention in Syria's civil war took many by surprise. The authors of this report assess where and under what conditions Moscow could intervene again by analyzing the factors that drive Russian decisionmaking on intervention.

Report

Exploring the Role Nuclear Weapons Could Play in Deterring Russian Threats to the Baltic States

This report examines what role nonstrategic nuclear weapons could play in deterring a Russian invasion of the Baltic states, where the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's current posture is weak.

Report

The Future of the Russian Military: Russia's Ground Combat Capabilities and Implications for U.S.-Russia Competition

Researchers analyze societal, political, economic, and demographic factors that undergird Russian military power. They also make projections about how Russian ground combat capabilities will evolve in the future and how the U.S. Army can respond.

Research Brief

What Will Russian Military Capabilities Look Like in the Future?

RAND researchers analyzed the development of Russia's military capabilities over the next 20 years -- with a focus on ground combat -- and the implications of that development for U.S.-Russian competition and for the U.S. Army.

Report

Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground

As the U.S. National Defense Strategy recognizes the United States is currently locked in a great-power competition with Russia. This report analyzes how the United States can compete to its own advantage and capitalize on Russia's weaknesses.

Research Brief

Overextending and Unbalancing Russia: Assessing the Impact of Cost-Imposing Options

This brief summarizes a report that comprehensively examines non-violent, cost-imposing options that could be pursued to overextend and unbalance the Russian regime.

Report

Characteristics of Successful U.S. Military Interventions

Using an original data set of 145 ground, air, and naval interventions from 1898 through 2016, this report identifies those factors that have made U.S. military interventions more or less successful at achieving their political objectives.

Commentary

How Might Artificial Intelligence Affect the Risk of Nuclear War?

This Perspective -- part of a series examining critical security challenges in 2040 -- is the culmination of a series of workshops examining possible outcomes regarding the influence of advanced computing and artificial intelligence on nuclear security.

Report

Assessing Russian Reactions to U.S. and NATO Posture Enhancements

RAND researchers develop a framework to assess likely Russian reactions to ongoing and proposed NATO posture enhancements in Europe in order to help policymakers determine the utility and advisability of different options.

Report

Technological Lessons from the Fukushima Dai-Ichi Accident

This study analyzes technological successes and identifies capability gaps regarding technological countermeasures to radioactive contamination caused by the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant accident.

Commentary

Overcoming Obstacles to Advanced Reactor Technologies

This perspective examines the institutional and technical obstacles to the commercialization of advanced nuclear reactors for electrical power generation in the United States.