Edward Geist

@sovietologist on Twitter

Policy Researcher

Santa Monica Office

Education

Ph.D. in history, University of North Carolina; M.A. in history, University of North Carolina; B.A. in history, William & Mary College

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Edward Geist is a policy researcher at the RAND Corporation. His research interests include Russia (primarily defense policy), civil defense, artificial intelligence, nuclear weapons, and the potential impact of emerging technologies on nuclear strategy. He was formerly a MacArthur Nuclear Security Fellow at Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation and a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at RAND. His book Armageddon Insurance: Civil Defense in the United States and Soviet Union, 1945–1991, was published by University of North Carolina Press in 2019. Geist received his Ph.D. in history from the University of North Carolina in 2013.

Research Focus

Selected Publications

Edward Geist "Why Reasoning Under Uncertainty Is Hard for Both Machines and People — and an Approach to Address the Problem," in The RAND Corporation, Adaptive Engagement for Undergoverned Spaces: Concepts, Challenges, and Prospects for New Approaches, RAND Corporation (RR-A1275-1), 2022

Honors & Awards

Strategy and Policy Fellowship, Smith Richardson Foundation

Languages

Russian

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: indy100; New York Magazine; NPR/National Public Radio; War and Peace

Commentary

Russia

Is Putin Irrational? What Nuclear Strategic Theory Says About Deterrence of Potentially Irrational Opponents
Increasingly isolated and desperate, Putin might try to suddenly escalate the Ukraine conflict rather than back down in the face of international opposition. The United States and its allies must account for the possibility that even in the face of credible deterrent threats Putin might double down and lash out.
Mar 8, 2022
The RAND Blog
Dispute Resolution

Nuclear Strategists Know How Dangerous the Debt Fight Is
Nuclear-war strategists' work offers a warning for Congress: The more times a game is played, the more treacherous it becomes, because when both sides believe catastrophe will always be averted in the end, each behaves more rashly. In the debt-ceiling dispute, the United States could end up defaulting precisely because each side keeps waiting for the other to blink.
Nov 29, 2021
The Atlantic
Military Strategy

The U.S. Doesn't Need More Nuclear Weapons to Counter China's New Missile Silos
There's little reason for the United States to worry much about whatever the Chinese military is building in hundreds of new missile silos in China. America and its allies have ways to counter any threats these silo fields pose.
Oct 18, 2021
The Washington Post
Military Strategy

Defeat Is Possible
If the United States is to have a reasonable hope of winning a war, it needs to think about what it would be like to lose. An essential first step could be to start taking the prospect of protracted near-peer conflict seriously.
Jun 17, 2021
War on the Rocks
Artificial Intelligence

Military Deception: AI's Killer App?
Contrary to the promise that AI would deliver an omniscient view of everything happening in the battlespace—the goal of U.S. military planners for decades—it now appears that technologies of misdirection are winning. Military deception, in short, could prove to be AI’s killer app.
Oct 23, 2019
War on the Rocks
Artificial Intelligence

Will Artificial Intelligence Undermine Nuclear Stability?
In the coming years, AI-enabled progress in tracking and targeting adversaries' nuclear weapons could undermine the foundations of nuclear stability. Will AI someday be able to guide strategy decisions about escalation or even launching nuclear weapons?
May 1, 2018
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Publications

Report
Opportunities and Risks of 5G Military Use in Europe
The authors consider U.S. military uses of the fifth-generation technology standard for cellular communications in a notional 2030 time frame, concentrating on a future smart logistics mission in the Baltics and surrounding countries.
Mar 23, 2023
Report
Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: Overarching Findings and Recommendations
This report synthesizes the findings and recommendations from two companion reports on intrastate proxy wars: civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state.
Mar 9, 2023
Report
Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: State Motivations and Future Trends
The authors used quantitative analysis and case studies of China, Iran, and Russia to examine the causes and likely future trends in proxy wars: civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state.
Mar 9, 2023
Report
Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: Military Implications
The authors examine the military implications of intrastate proxy wars (civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state) via a literature review and four case studies.
Mar 9, 2023
Report
Russian Military Strategy: Organizing Operations for the Initial Period of War
The authors of this report identify and examine several factors to assess the orientation of Russian military strategy, including the balance of power, Russian diplomacy with China, views on future war, and trends in force readiness and mobilization.
Nov 22, 2022
Report
Emerging Technology Beyond 2035: Scenario-Based Technology Assessment for Future Military Contingencies
This report presents the development and implementation of a technology assessment process to help the Army understand the implications of key emerging technologies that could be important for Army missions in the years 2035 to 2050.
Aug 29, 2022
Report
Adaptive Engagement for Undergoverned Spaces: Concepts, Challenges, and Prospects for New Approaches
This report is a compendium of expert insights regarding opportunities for investing in science and technology to increase U.S. ability to engage in long-term competition in undergoverned spaces.
Jul 13, 2022
Report
Disrupting Deterrence: Examining the Effects of Technologies on Strategic Deterrence in the 21st Century
The authors examined potential implications of emerging technologies for deterrence in the context of U.S. national security policy. They identified long-term effects on two major aspects of the deterrence dynamic -- effectiveness and stability.
Apr 14, 2022
Report
Mitigating Challenges to U.S.-Russia Strategic Stability
The authors examine the challenges to the U.S.-Russian bilateral strategic stability paradigm and assess possible policy changes that could address these challenges.
Feb 17, 2022
Report
Anticipating Adversary Military Interventions
The authors explore where, how, and how often U.S. adversaries (specifically, Russia, China, and Iran) have intervened militarily since 1946 and identify why these adversaries initiated military interventions and why they might do so in the future.
Sep 27, 2021
Report
Russia's Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts
Despite Russia's relatively small global economic footprint, it has engaged in more interventions than any other U.S. competitor since 1991. In this report, the authors assess when, where, and why Russia conducts military interventions.
Sep 27, 2021
Report
Exploring the Feasibility and Utility of Machine Learning-Assisted Command and Control: Volume 1, Findings and Recommendations
This report describes the potential for artificial intelligence (AI) systems to assist in Air Force command and control (C2). The authors develop a framework and metrics for assessing the suitability of a given AI system for a given C2 problem.
Jul 15, 2021
Report
Exploring the Feasibility and Utility of Machine Learning-Assisted Command and Control: Volume 2, Supporting Technical Analysis
This volume serves as the technical analysis to a report concerning the potential for artificial intelligence systems to assist in Air Force command and control (C2).
Jul 15, 2021
Report
Defense Acquisition in Russia and China
This report discusses recent research into the research, development, and acquisition processes of Russia and China—both doctrinally and in practice—and identifies areas in which each country excels and where each country has challenges.
Jul 14, 2021
Report
Competing with Russia Militarily: Implications of Conventional and Nuclear Conflicts
In this Perspective, the authors illuminate the implications of a conventional military confrontation between NATO and Russia in Europe and the associated risk of nuclear escalation.
Jun 22, 2021
Report
Technology Innovation and the Future of Air Force Intelligence Analysis: Volume 2, Technical Analysis and Supporting Material
The authors recommend tools, technologies, and processes to address the growing demand for Air Force Distributed Common Ground System support as it relates to intelligence squadrons within the 480th Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Wing.
Jan 27, 2021
Report
Technology Innovation and the Future of Air Force Intelligence Analysis: Volume 1, Findings and Recommendations
There is growing demand for the Air Force Distributed Common Ground System to analyze sensor data. The authors assessed how new tools and technologies, including artificial intelligence and machine learning, can help meet these demands.
Jan 27, 2021
Research Brief
The Department of Defense's Posture for Artificial Intelligence: Assessment and Recommendations for Improvement
In this report, RAND Corporation researchers assess the state of artificial intelligence relevant to the U.S. Department of Defense and provide recommendations for the future of the department's artificial intelligence posture.
Jan 26, 2021
Report
Counter-Radicalization Bot Research: Using Social Bots to Fight Violent Extremism
As the online recruitment of violent extremist organizations grows, the U.S. government may benefit from promising emerging technology tools to rapidly detect targets of such recruitment efforts and deliver counter-radicalization content to them.
Oct 8, 2020
Report
The Department of Defense Posture for Artificial Intelligence: Assessment and Recommendations
In this report, the authors assess the state of artificial intelligence (AI) relevant to DoD, conduct an independent assessment of the Department of Defense's posture in AI, and put forth a set of recommendations to enhance that posture.
Dec 17, 2019
Report
Understanding Russia's Intervention in Syria
Russia's 2015 military intervention in Syria's civil war took many by surprise. The authors of this report assess where and under what conditions Moscow could intervene again by analyzing the factors that drive Russian decisionmaking on intervention.
Oct 31, 2019
Report
Exploring the Role Nuclear Weapons Could Play in Deterring Russian Threats to the Baltic States
This report examines what role nonstrategic nuclear weapons could play in deterring a Russian invasion of the Baltic states, where the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's current posture is weak.
Oct 24, 2019
Report
The Future of the Russian Military: Russia's Ground Combat Capabilities and Implications for U.S.-Russia Competition
Researchers analyze societal, political, economic, and demographic factors that undergird Russian military power. They also make projections about how Russian ground combat capabilities will evolve in the future and how the U.S. Army can respond.
Jun 18, 2019
Research Brief
What Will Russian Military Capabilities Look Like in the Future?
RAND researchers analyzed the development of Russia's military capabilities over the next 20 years -- with a focus on ground combat -- and the implications of that development for U.S.-Russian competition and for the U.S. Army.
Jun 18, 2019
Report
Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground
As the U.S. National Defense Strategy recognizes the United States is currently locked in a great-power competition with Russia. This report analyzes how the United States can compete to its own advantage and capitalize on Russia's weaknesses.
Apr 24, 2019
Research Brief
Overextending and Unbalancing Russia: Assessing the Impact of Cost-Imposing Options
This brief summarizes a report that comprehensively examines non-violent, cost-imposing options that could be pursued to overextend and unbalance the Russian regime.
Apr 24, 2019
Report
Characteristics of Successful U.S. Military Interventions
Using an original data set of 145 ground, air, and naval interventions from 1898 through 2016, this report identifies those factors that have made U.S. military interventions more or less successful at achieving their political objectives.
Apr 1, 2019
Report
How Might Artificial Intelligence Affect the Risk of Nuclear War?
This Perspective -- part of a series examining critical security challenges in 2040 -- is the culmination of a series of workshops examining possible outcomes regarding the influence of advanced computing and artificial intelligence on nuclear security.
Apr 24, 2018
Report
Assessing Russian Reactions to U.S. and NATO Posture Enhancements
RAND researchers develop a framework to assess likely Russian reactions to ongoing and proposed NATO posture enhancements in Europe in order to help policymakers determine the utility and advisability of different options.
Oct 10, 2017
Report
Technological Lessons from the Fukushima Dai-Ichi Accident
This study analyzes technological successes and identifies capability gaps regarding technological countermeasures to radioactive contamination caused by the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant accident.
Jun 1, 2016
Report
Overcoming Obstacles to Advanced Reactor Technologies
This perspective examines the institutional and technical obstacles to the commercialization of advanced nuclear reactors for electrical power generation in the United States.
Aug 31, 2015