John Birkler

Adjunct Senior Fellow

Off Site Office

Education

M.S. in physics, University of South Carolina; B.S. in physics, Roanoke College

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

John Birkler is an adjunct senior fellow at the RAND Corporation. He has held a variety of research and management positions since joining RAND. From 1987 to 1997, he served as director, Acquisition and Support Policy Program, then from 1998 to 2019, as director of RAND's Maritime Programs, where he led and managed research for the U.S. Navy, Office of the Secretary of Defense, U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM), U.S. Coast Guard, the Australian DoD, and the UK Ministry of Defence, and mentored U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard executive fellows at RAND.

Birkler's research spans RDT&E strategies and planning, industrial base, acquisition, management, and organization issues. In addition to the above maritime clients, his research has covered a wide range of aircraft systems (including the Joint Strike Fighter, F-15, F-14, B-1, B-2, A-12, C-5, C-17, F-117, F/A-18 E/F), missiles and munitions (including the advanced cruise missile, the Tomahawk cruise missile, and precision conventional munitions), and surface and subsurface combatants. He also has led studies on the links between the health of the defense industrial base and levels of innovation and competition. His most recent work has involved managing or leading multiple Analyses of Alternatives (AoAs) for the Navy, USMC and Army, and SOCOM, Australian DoD, and leading a high-profile RAND analysis of Australia's Naval Shipbuilding Enterprise.

Birkler received his M.S. in nuclear and solid state physics from the University of South Carolina and completed the UCLA Executive Program in Management. After completing his third Command tour, he retired from the Navy Reserve with the rank of Captain.

Research Focus

Recent Projects

Combat aircraft
Unmanned aerial vehicles
Aircraft carriers
Surface combatants
Submarines/submersibles

Selected Publications

Birkler, John, John F. Schank, Mark V. Arena, Edward G. Keating, Joel B. Predd, James Black, Irina Elena Danescu, Dan Jenkins, James G. Kallimani, Gordon T. Lee, Roger Lough, Robert Murphy, David Nicholls, Giacomo Persi Paoli, Deborah Peetz, Brian Perkinson, Jerry M. Sollinger, Shane Tierney, and Obaid Younossi, Australia's Naval Shipbuilding Enterprise: Preparing for the 21st Century, RAND Corporation (RR-1093), 2015

Birkler, John, John F. Schank, Mark V. Arena, Jessie Riposo, and Gordon T. Lee, Strengthening the Shipbuilding Industry, U. S. Naval Institute (EP-50406), 2013

Birkler, John, John F. Schank, Jessie Riposo, Mark V. Arena, Robert W. Button, Paul DeLuca, James Dullea, James G. Kallimani, John Leadmon, Gordon T. Lee, Brian McInnis, Robert Murphy, Joel B. Predd, and Raymond H. Williams, Australia's Submarine Design Capabilities and Capacities: Challenges and Options for the Future Submarine, RAND Corporation (MG-1033), 2011

Arena, Mark V., John Birkler, Determining When Competition Is a Reasonable Strategy for the Production Phase of Defense Acquisition, RAND Corporation (OP-263), 2009

Birkler, John, Industry and Infrastructure for Future Submarines: An International Perspective, RAND Corporation (CP-622), 2011

Birkler, John, Paul Bracken, Gordon T. Lee, Mark A. Lorell, Soumen Saha, and Shane Tierney, Keeping a Competitive U.S. Military Aircraft Industry Aloft: Findings from an Analysis of the Industrial Base, RAND Corporation (MG-1133), 2011

Birkler, John, Mark V. Arena, Irv Blickstein, Jeffrey A. Drezner, Susan M. Gates, Meilinda Huang, Robert Murphy, Charles Nemfakos, and Susan K. Woodward, From Marginal Adjustments to Meaningful Change: Rethinking Weapon System Acquisition, RAND Corporation (MG-1020), 2010

Birkler, John, Untying Gulliver: Taking Risks to Acquire Novel Weapon Systems, RAND Corporation (OP-268), 2009

Honors & Awards

RAND President's Award, James Thomson

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: ABCnews.com; Boston Globe; Newhouse News Service; Reuters

Commentary

Submarines

Nuclear Subs Idea Worth Floating
Whether Australia should operate and maintain nuclear-propelled attack submarines has been debated for years. While controversial to some, the option of nuclear subs in Australia's future fleet may be a useful alternative given trends in the country's security environment.
Oct 1, 2019
The Australian

Publications

Report
Is the Defense Acquisition System Postured to Solve National Defense Strategy Operational Problems?
The authors propose assessing the defense acquisition system's ability to overcome the operational problems outlined in the 2018 National Defense Strategy, discuss why the approach is valuable, and suggest next steps.
Sep 20, 2021
Journal Article
Innovating Innovation in the U.S. Department of Defense Looking to Large Corporations for Inspiration
In recent years DoD leaders have become interested in identifying ways to create a culture, policies, and processes that yield more innovation than today's environment produces. This paper argues that this approach could hamper U.S. technological performance.
2021
Report
Australia's Naval Shipbuilding Enterprise: Preparing for the 21st Century
RAND researchers explore the feasibility of Australia sustaining a domestic naval shipbuilding industry compared with buying ships from foreign shipbuilders. The authors outline the complex consequences and trade-offs of both options.
Apr 15, 2015
Report
Keeping Major Naval Ship Acquisitions on Course: Key Considerations for Managing Australia's SEA 5000 Future Frigate Program
This study provides a program overview of acquisition options available for the Commonwealth of Australia's next generation naval surface combatant and identifies internal and external factors that can influence a major ship acquisition program.
Dec 22, 2014
Report
Management Perspectives Pertaining to Root Cause Analyses of Nunn-McCurdy Breaches, Volume 6: Contractor Motivations and Anticipating Breaches
The authors analyze what motivates defense contractors to determine if better incentives exist to the ones now used, and analyze major defense acquisition programs to see if it is possible to identify programs that might incur a Nunn-McCurdy breach.
Oct 8, 2014
Journal Article
Strengthening the Shipbuilding Industry
To prevent atrophy in a fiscally challenged environment, the U.S. Navy and ship manufacturers will need to adopt a set of broad management strategies.
Dec 1, 2013
Report
Keeping a Competitive U.S. Military Aircraft Industry Aloft: Findings from an Analysis of the Industrial Base
Evaluates the near-term and long-term risks and costs of the United States having little or no competition among companies involved with designing, developing, and producing fixed-wing military aircraft and related systems.
Jan 16, 2012
Research Brief
Australia's Domestic Submarine Design Capabilities: Options for the Future Submarine
To design a new naval submarine domestically, Australia's industry and Government will need about 1,000 skilled draftsmen and engineers. Cultivating this workforce could take 15-20 years; partnering with foreign designers could expedite the process.
Dec 22, 2011
Report
Australia's Submarine Design Capabilities and Capacities: Challenges and Options for the Future Submarine
Assesses the domestic engineering and design skills that Australian industry and government will need to design a new submarine, identifies the skills they currently possess, and evaluates how best to fill any gaps between the two.
Dec 15, 2011
Brochure
Industry and Infrastructure for Future Submarines: An International Perspective
Presented at the Submarine Institute of Australia's 2010 Conference in Perth, Australia, this paper draws on RAND's international submarine experience to highlight policies that Australia may wish to consider in planning for its new submarine.
Jan 28, 2011
Report
From Marginal Adjustments to Meaningful Change: Rethinking Weapon System Acquisition
The authors present detailed proposals to improve defense acquisition through initiatives focused on competition, novel systems, risk management, organizational factors, prototyping, and the acquisition workforce.
Oct 8, 2010
Report
Determining When Competition Is a Reasonable Strategy for the Production Phase of Defense Acquisition
Identifies the benefits and drawbacks of competition in defense acquisitions and uses RAND's required cost reduction methodology to show how DoD can determine when the introduction of competition during production is a reasonable strategy.
2009
Report
Dollar Value and Risk Levels: Changing How Weapon System Programs Are Managed
Proposes a new paradigm in which the basis of management and oversight of a major defense acquisition program would be the level of risk it represents, including technical, system integration, design, production, and business innovation risk.
2009
Report
Untying Gulliver: Taking Risks to Acquire Novel Weapon Systems
Describes the special features of novel systems and then outlines the major elements of an acquisition strategy that would be more consistent with these features and with the expected environment of urgency that might attend their development.
2009
Research Brief
Getting the Most Out of Littoral Combat Ships
This research brief summarizes analysis of the Littoral Combat Ship, the U.S. Navy's first modular warship, suggesting the best locations for homeports, mission package installation sites, and the quantity of mission packages that should be procured.
Mar 11, 2008
Report
Using the Steel-Vessel Material-Cost Index to Mitigate Shipbuilder Risk
The more accurately a cost index captures a shipbuilder's risk, the less the Navy should have to pay its shipbuilders. The authors urge the Navy to develop a modern-vessel index that represents the materials used today.
Mar 9, 2008
Report
Littoral Combat Ships: Relating Performance to Mission Package Inventories, Homeports, and Installation Sites
Explores the trade-offs between three elements of the U.S. Navy's Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) program: the number of LCSs, the number of mission packages required, and the number and locations of homeports and mission package installation sites.
May 7, 2007
Research Brief
New Combat and Noncombat Roles for U.S. Aircraft Carriers
This research brief describes the range of new capabilities that U.S. aircraft carriers will require for combat and noncombat operations in the next 20 to 30 years.
Aug 29, 2006
Report
Leveraging America’s Aircraft Carrier Capabilities: Exploring New Combat and Noncombat Roles and Missions for the U.S. Carrier Fleet
Using two Concept Options Groups, explores possible nontraditional combat and noncombat roles for aircraft carriers.
Apr 28, 2006
Report
Acquisition and Competition Strategy Options for the DD(X): The U.S. Navy’s 21st Century Destroyer
How can the Navy achieve the most effective competition among its suppliers during development and production of its new family of destroyers while ensuring that two shipyards remain in business to compete on future programs?
Jan 31, 2006
Report
The United Kingdom’s Nuclear Submarine Industrial Base, Volume 2: Ministry of Defence Roles and Required Technical Resources
Recommends measures and structures the UK Ministry of Defence can adopt to better manage its risks and responsibilities in submarine acquisition.
Dec 5, 2005
Research Brief
Building Ships On Time: How Can the Defence Procurement Agency More Accurately Monitor Progress?
UK military shipbuilding experiences considerable schedule slippage. To assess the reasons for this and means to improve it, RAND researchers surveyed major shipbuilders, reviewed relevant literature, and identified the primary causes of production d...
Nov 25, 2005
Research Brief
Commercial Shipbuilding Techniques: Can They Be Applied to Warship Production in the United Kingdom?
The United Kingdom faces numerous challenges in producing warships from now through 2020, including developing a sufficiently sized and skilled workforce, updating facilities, and maintaining viable producers. To address these challenges, the UK Mini...
Nov 25, 2005
Research Brief
Diversifying the Customer Base for Shipbuilding in the United Kingdom
UK's attempts to re-enter the commercial shipbuilding market or enter the military ship export market would face daunting challenges. Design breakthroughs by the UK could help its competitive position, but such advances require risky investments.
Nov 25, 2005
Research Brief
Reducing the Cost of Aircraft Carrier Acquisition
The United Kingdom's Ministry of Defence is designing its next class of aircraft carriers. At the ministry's request, RAND presented several cost-saving tools and measures.
Nov 25, 2005
Report
The United Kingdom’s Nuclear Submarine Industrial Base, Volume 1: Sustaining Design and Production Resources
Recommends strategies to efficiently sustain and operate the United Kingdom's submarine industrial base.
Aug 30, 2005
Report
The United Kingdom’s Nuclear Submarine Industrial Base, Volume 3: Options for Initial Fuelling
Assesses where the United Kingdom's nuclear fuelling of submarines should occur to best minimise cost and schedule risks.
Aug 30, 2005
Report
Differences Between Military and Commercial Shipbuilding: Implications for the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence
Looks at the feasibility of UK shipbuilders expanding outside their domestic military contracts into the worldwide commercial or foreign military markets.
Jun 15, 2005
Report
Monitoring the Progress of Shipbuilding Programmes: How Can the Defence Procurement Agency More Accurately Monitor Progress?
Explores the reasons for and ways to anticipate schedule delays in shipbuilding programmes.
Jun 15, 2005
Report
Outsourcing and Outfitting Practices: Implications for the Ministry of Defence Shipbuilding Programmes
Advises how the United Kingdom should best use modern outsourcing and outfitting practices for shipbuilding in the years to come.
Jun 15, 2005
Report
Options for Reducing Costs in the United Kingdom’s Future Aircraft Carrier (CVF) Programme
Examines ways in which the UK Ministry of Defence can reduce the whole-life costs and manpower requirements of the Royal Navy's two Future Aircraft Carriers (CVFs).
May 6, 2005
Report
Modernizing the U.S. Aircraft Carrier Fleet: Accelerating CVN 21 Production Versus Mid-Life Refueling
What are the pros and cons of speeding up production of the Navy's newest carrier?
2005
Report
The U.S. Coast Guard’s Deepwater Force Modernization Plan: Can It Be Accelerated? Will It Meet Changing Security Needs?
Explores acceleration of the pace at which the U.S. Coast Guard can acquire surface and air assets that it will operate in the deepwater environment (50 or more nautical miles from shore) and whether the original Integrated Deepwater System program t
Aug 15, 2004
Report
Competition and Innovation in the U.S. Fixed-Wing Military Aircraft Industry
Responds to Senate's concerns that further consolidation in the military-aircraft industry, which has dropped from 11 prime contractors in 1960 to the current three, will pose risks to innovation and cost through limited or no competition.
2003
Report
Options for Funding Aircraft Carriers
Examines alternatives to full-funding strategy (appropriation of enough money for an entire construction project in the initial year of construction) for funding aircraft carriers.
Jun 1, 2002
Report
Refueling and Complex Overhaul of the USS Nimitz (CVN 68): Lessons for the Future
Improving the planning and execution of the refueling and complex overhaul of the Navy's nuclear aircraft carriers
Apr 1, 2002
Report
The Royal Navy's New-Generation Type 45 Destroyer: Acquisition Options and Implications
In 2001, RAND helped the United Kingdom's Ministry of Defence (MOD) evaluate different acquisition strategies that it might use to acquire the new-generation Type 45 destroyer.
2002
Report
Assessing Competitive Strategies for the Joint Strike Fighter: Opportunities and Options
Defense policymakers in the United States expect that the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) will play a critical role in U.S. and allied military forces through the first half of this century.
2001
Report
Advanced SEAL Delivery System: Perspectives and Options
The Deep Submergence Directorate of the Naval Sea Systems Command asked RAND to undertake a brief analysis examining the follow-on production of the Advanced SEAL Delivery System (ASDS). This documented briefing presents the study findings.
2001
Research Brief
Injecting Competition into the Joint Strike Fighter Program: Can a Winner-Take-All Environment Become More Competitive?
The Department of Defense (DoD) should stick with its winner-take-all strategy to develop and produce the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) - which is slated to become the workhorse fighter for the Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps.
2001
Report
An Acquisition Strategy, Process, and Organization for Innovative Systems
Critics of the weapon-system acquisition process rarely address the question of how to achieve improvements in the process. examines some specific dimensions of improvement that are needed and suggestsa broad strategy for achieving those improvements.
2000
Report
A Tool for Evaluating Force Modernization Options
Military resource allocation choices are often contentious, especially when — as now — international events and domestic budgets require significant changes in the character and capabilities of U.S. military forces.
1998
Report
Gaining New Military Capability: An Experiment in Concept Development
Presents highlights from a RAND concept options group (COG) convened to consider options for using technologies that could enable U.S. forces to perform an existing military mission better, perform it differently, or gain a new capability.
1998
Report
The U.S. Aircraft Carrier Industrial Base: Force Structure, Cost, Schedule, and Technology Issues for CVN77
The U.S. Aircraft Carrier Industrial Base: Force Structure, Cost, Schedule, and Technology Issues for CVN77
1998
Report
CVX Propulsion System Decision: Industrial Base Implications of Nuclear and Non-Nuclear Options
CVX Propulsion System Decision: Industrial Base Implications of Nuclear and Non-Nuclear Options
1998
Report
The Predator ACTD: A Case Study for Transition Planning to the Formal Acquisition Process
The Predator ACTD: A Case Study for Transition Planning to the Formal Acquisition Process
1997
Report
The Global Hawk Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Acquisition Process: A Summary of Phase I Experience
The purpose of this case study is to understand how one such program, the High Altitude Endurance Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (HAE UAV), has benefited from certain changes from established acquisition procedures.
1997
Testimony
Aircraft Carrier Industrial Base
The purpose of this hearing was to receive testimony on the Department of the Navy's shipbuilding development and procurement programs as reflected in the Defense Authorization Request for Fiscal Year 1998 and the Future Years Defense Program.
1997
Report
Formulating Strategies for International Collaboration in Developing and Producing Defense Systems
Outlines a strategy that generates new concepts to perform needed tasks, forces the involvement of multiple nations, maintains competitive forces, and has equitable financial structuring, minimizing the inevitable penalties of collaboration.
1997
Report
A Framework for Precision Conventional Strike in Post-Cold War Military Strategy
Examines the value PCS weapons have in future military strategies and draws inferences about investment of system development and acquisition dollars.
1996
Report
Shaping and Integrating the Next Military: Organization Options for Defense Acquisition and Technology
This briefing offers several options for Acquisition and Technology to restructure itself for the new world of defense management.
1996
Report
Three Programs and Ten Criteria: Evaluating and Improving Acquisition Program Management and Oversight Processes Within the Department of Defense
Synthesizes a set of lessons learned from an analysis of past problems in DoD acquisition and develops a framework for evaluating management practices in ongoing development and/or production programs.
1996
Research Brief
Naval Research, Development, and Technology: Deciding What to Buy and How to Buy It
Interested in the generalizability of the approach and in the applicability of the resulting methods to science and technology investment policy across DoD.
1995
Report
Priority-Setting and Strategic Sourcing in the Naval Research, Development, and Technology Infrastructure
This report suggests ways in which the Dept. of the Navy might realize more value from its increasingly constrained research, development, and technology (RD&T) dollars.
1995
Report
The U.S. Submarine Production Base: An Analysis of Cost, Schedule, and Risk for Selected Force Structures: Executive Summary
A summary of an analysis comparing two approaches to future submarine production: (1) allowing production to shut down as currently programmed submarines are finished, then restarting it when more are needed, and (2) continuing low-rate production.
1994
Report
The U.S. Submarine Production Base: An Analysis of Cost, Schedule, and Risk for Selected Force Structures
Compares the practicality and cost of two approaches to future submarine production: allowing production to shut down as currently programmed submarines are finished, then restarting it when more are needed, or continuing low-rate production.
1994
Report
Reconstituting a Production Capability: Past Experience, Restart Criteria and Suggested Policies
Evaluates the feasibility of restarting weapon system production lines in response to a resurgent major threat and suggests steps that might be taken at shutdown to ease restart.
1993
Report
Dual-Source Procurement in the Tomahawk Program
Part of a broader study examining the economic implications of establishing a second production source for the Advanced Cruise Missile (ACM).
1990
Report
Issues Associated with Second-Source Procurement Decisions
In some cases it may be actually less costly for the government to forgo competition and rely on a single supplier.
1990
Report
The Relative Cost Factor: A Method of Comparing Petroleum Refinery Investment
Major refinery projects are complex endeavors that span many years and require the integration of many activities and groups. A simple model could not capture all these facets.
1987
Report
Assessing the Benefits and Costs of Motion for C-17 Flight Simulators: Technical Appendixes
This document provides technical support for R-3276
1986
Report
Assessing the Benefits and Costs of Motion for C-17 Flight Simulators
This study examines the benefits and costs of incorporating a motion system in the C-17 flight training simulator.
1986
Report
Comparing Project Investment Costs: A Methodology and Baseline for the Refining Industry
Describes a method for comparing refinery project costs and attempts to establish an industry baseline against which investment costs for such projects can be compared.
1986
Report
Improving Operational Suitability Through Better Requirements and Testing
This report proposes prescriptive actions that could increase the contribution made by requirements and test-and-evaluation (T&E) aspects of the weapon system acquisition process to the fielding of more operationally suitable Air Force systems.
1986
Report
Cost and Schedule Implications of Multinational Coproduction
This paper examines the cost, schedule, and program management implications of multinational coproduction--international collaboration during weapon system production.
1984
Report
Future combat environments: implications for the engine development process
This paper reviews reliability and durability features of various aircraft engines; discusses design features that may enhance maintainability and assesses the extent to which they have been incorporated in existing engines; and assesses how demands ...
1984
Report
Reform in Defense Acquisition Policies: A Different View
This paper takes issue with those in the defense community who suggest that the way to get low-cost production of defense hardware is for the government to rely on continued attempts to achieve stable, long-term purchases of the kind that would ...
1983
Report
Regression Diagnostics in Practice: Experiences from Modeling Jet Engine Costs
Describes how regression diagnostics were used to help develop revised cost-estimating relationships for jet engines.
1983
Report
Development and Production Cost Estimating Relationships for Aircraft Turbine Engines
This Note describes RAND's latest study of cost estimating relationships for new military aircraft turbine engine development and production programs. It presents equations for estimating development and production costs and time of arrival for U.S....
1982
Report
The Impact of Tanker Support on Selection of Long-Range Combat Aircraft Size
This Note addresses the problem of long-range combat aircraft (LRCA) size selection and the impact of tanker support.
1982
Report
A Method for Estimating the Cost of Aircraft Structural Modification
A method for estimating the cost of aircraft structural modification
1981
Report
Multinational Coproduction of Military Aerospace Systems
Assesses cost and schedule implications of acquiring weapon systems using multinational coproduction by examining experiences accumulated in a large and diverse set of aerospace development and production programs.
1981
Report
Aircraft Turbine Engine Monitoring Experience: An Overview and Lessons Learned from Selected Case Studies
Two approaches have evolved in attempts to improve engine operations, maintenance, and management while reducing support costs.
1980
Report
Future V/STOL Airplanes: Guidelines and Techniques for Acquisition Program Analysis and Evaluation - Executive Summary
As aeronautical technologies continue to advance, V/STOL airplanes will become increasingly more attractive for a variety of military missions.
1980
Report
Aircraft Turbine Engine Monitoring Experience: Implications for the F100 Engine Diagnostic System Program
A briefing report examining experience gained from six aircraft turbine engine monitoring system case studies and their implications for the F100 Engine Diagnostic System (EDS) under development for the F-15 and F-16 aircraft.
1979
Report
Aircraft turbine engine monitoring systems: overview and lessons learned from six case studies
Reviews the experience gained from several aircraft turbine engine monitoring systems and examines the implications of that experience for recently proposed monitoring systems. Two different approaches to engine monitoring have evolved: (1) Recordin...
1979
Report
Development, acquisition, and operating and support cost methods for aircraft turbine engines
Two successful engine costing methodologies are outlined: RAND work sponsored by the USAF, and Navy work done at the Naval Air Development Center. RAND's time-of-arrival method addresses three phases--development, acquisition, and operating and supp...
1978