The Biden Administration Will Find It Difficult to Contain Israel and Iran's Escalating Tensions
Iranian officials are blaming Israel and vowing revenge for a major blackout that damaged centrifuges at the Natanz nuclear research facility. The attack is likely to complicate nuclear diplomacy, further erode trust between Tehran and Washington, and may only incentivize Iran to advance its program. What does this mean for the nascent nuclear talks in Vienna?
Apr 14, 2021 The Washington Post Monkey Cage Blog
Why Israel-UAE Deal Doesn't Merit the Hype
Some have called the Israel-UAE normalization agreement a geopolitical earthquake. But the hyperbole is not warranted; this deal is unlikely to be a strategic game changer in the Middle East.
Aug 18, 2020 Al-Monitor
An Israeli Escalation Against Iran?
Israeli involvement in recent attacks on Iran would not be surprising, and more such attacks might be coming. However, Israel's bet that the Iranians will not respond is risky. It's hard to control escalation when things are so volatile, especially as hardline Iranian leaders may increase pressure to retaliate.
Jul 15, 2020 The Washington Post Monkey Cage Blog
A Way Forward for the United States and Turkey
Relations between the United States and Turkey, while fraught with tension, must also align with a mutual interest in stability in the Middle East and preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction. It may be important for the region's stability and prosperity to find constructive ways for the United States to work with Turkey in the years ahead.
Jul 9, 2020 Al-Monitor
COVID-19 Impacts on Strategic Dynamics in the Middle East
The pandemic is sure to have transformational effects everywhere, and the Middle East is no exception. But it's unlikely that the crisis will lead to new regional strategic dynamics. Rather, it's more likely to reinforce existing and largely negative trend lines.
Mar 26, 2020 The RAND Blog
Peace with the Region Is Not a Peace Plan
Acceptance of Israel from the broader Arab world will not resolve the dilemma of how the Israelis and the Palestinians can agree to live on the same land together. A viable plan for the future, one that is about real peace and not a one-sided political gambit, must recognize these realities.
Feb 13, 2020 Al-Monitor
With Chaos in the Streets of Iran, Here's How the United States Could Help the Iranian People
The Iranian people deserve American support. But current U.S. policies are hurting the cause that Iranians are fighting for while failing to achieve any strategic objectives.
Dec 3, 2019 Los Angeles Times
Israel’s War with Iran May Be Going Too Far
Israel has a right to defend itself from Iranian threats to its country. American leaders should consider balancing support for Israel's efforts to counter Iran with firm redlines about activities negatively impacting American interests.
Sep 16, 2019 The National Interest
The Costs of Confrontation with Iran Are Mounting
Even if the United States and Iran avoid a direct military clash, recent escalation and the U.S. maximum pressure campaign are exacting long-term costs for U.S. interests and regional stability in ways that may be difficult if not impossible to reverse.
Jun 17, 2019 The Hill
The Warsaw Summit Is No Madrid
The peace process begun in Madrid nearly 30 years ago showed promise, but ultimately stalled, and will need rethinking to adapt to today's Middle East. The world could use a worthy successor. The Warsaw summit probably isn't it.
Feb 13, 2019 New Republic
Helping Lebanon Succeed Is More Than About Countering Iran
As tensions increase on the Israeli-Lebanese border the possibility is growing that a confrontation with Iran may move from Syria to Lebanon. For the United States, turning its back on this small but strategically critical country and conflating U.S. interests in Lebanon solely with countering Iran could be short-sighted, and a missed opportunity at a time when the region has few.
Jan 16, 2019 The National Interest
Bringing Back Sanctions Will Hurt U.S. Allies and Iran, but Will It Help the U.S.?
What happens if leaving the Iran nuclear deal and applying “maximum pressure” doesn't lead Iran to change its behavior or the regime to collapse? The Trump administration may find that it's much easier to break a deal than to replace it with something better.
Aug 7, 2018 The Hill
The Strategic Fallout of U.S. Withdrawal from the Iran Deal
President Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement. What will happen next? Friction between the United States and its European allies will likely increase, while Iran moves closer to China and Russia. Also, the resentment of a new generation of Iranians toward America is likely to grow.
May 10, 2018 The Hill
Can Europe Save the Iran Nuclear Deal?
In mid-January, President Trump threatened to withdraw from the Iran agreement if Europe does not “fix” it within four months. There are viable steps Europe could take to address Trump's concerns about the deal — on missile development, inspections, and sunset clauses. However, if the U.S. withdraws, Europe could still work with other international powers to keep the deal alive.
Mar 12, 2018 Reuters
What to Make of Trump's Decision on Jerusalem
While the Israeli-Palestinian issue is not a high priority in the Arab world today with all the other turmoil engulfing the region, not even the Trump administration's closest allies support the president's decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital. And it risks inflaming regional tension and increasing anti-American sentiment.
Dec 28, 2017 Jewish Journal
Decertifying the Iran Nuclear Deal Would Not Increase U.S. Leverage
The Iran nuclear agreement is not perfect, but it is working. Iran is no longer on the brink of being able to produce a nuclear weapon as it was two years ago. The suggestion that decertifying would increase U.S. leverage to renegotiate and strengthen the agreement is unrealistic.
Oct 5, 2017 Jewish Journal
State Competition, Not Sectarianism, Key Driver of Middle East Politics
Sectarianism is real and dangerous in the Middle East, but the region is more complicated. The next leaders in Iran and Saudi Arabia, under pressure from youthful populations and worsening economic challenges, may no longer see value in a costly sectarian agenda.
Aug 3, 2017 Axios
Time for Quiet Diplomacy, Not Taking Sides
Disputes within the Gulf Cooperation Council are inevitable given differing threat perceptions and political interests, but there is no reason for the U.S. to pursue policies that aggravate the differences and risk fueling greater instability. Instead, Washington could assure both sides that it will support any agreement they reach.
Jun 7, 2017 The National Interest
What to Expect in the Middle East: Q&A with Dalia Dassa Kaye
Dalia Dassa Kaye explains why there's more to the Middle East than what appears in daily headlines, how RAND is working to help people in the region, and more.
Apr 24, 2017
The Limits of Going It Alone in Syria
Very little on the ground in Syria has changed since the U.S. missile strikes against the Assad regime. To translate this military action into policy gains, it will be necessary to follow up with increased diplomatic coordination with international partners and institutions.
Apr 18, 2017 U.S. News & World Report
Hidden Dangers of Moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem
Moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem would antagonize partners in the Islamic world who are key to fighting ISIS. And any potential cooperation that might have developed between Israel and Arab states over common concerns about Iran could suffer.
Dec 28, 2016 Newsweek
RAND Experts Q&A on the Iran Nuclear Deal, One Year Later
Looking back on the past year, five RAND experts respond to a series of critical questions about the Iran nuclear deal, its implementation, and potential challenges ahead.
Jul 12, 2016
The Iran Deal Is Working: What Now?
U.S. policy will likely continue to balance the tensions between containing and deterring Iran with regional allies, while testing areas where engagement with Iran might either be unavoidable (as in Syria) or desirable (such as in counternarcotics cooperation or efforts to stabilize Afghanistan).
Mar 9, 2016 The National Interest
A Better Deal for Iran
It is critical for lawmakers to understand there will be serious consequences for rejecting the Iran deal. And those consequences look a lot worse for the United States and its partners than for Iran.
Aug 24, 2015 The Hill
Peace in the Middle East: America's New Post-Iran Deal Challenge
It is no surprise that the final Iran nuclear deal was met with opposition in Israel and Saudi Arabia. For all the talk about whether or not this is a good deal, negotiating with Iran was the original sin from their perspective.
Jul 20, 2015 The National Interest
The Iran Nuclear Deal: RAND Experts Answer Questions About the Days Ahead
Diplomats have reached a nuclear agreement with Iran. Now, the United States faces important policy decisions that will help shape the days ahead and the relationship that emerges between Iran and the other parties involved.
Jul 14, 2015
Here's What Will Happen If the Iran Deal Falls Through
Even a strong nonproliferation agreement that prevents all pathways toward the Iranian bomb won't magically transform the Middle East. But on balance, the region would be better off with a good nuclear deal than without one.
Jul 7, 2015 Foreign Affairs
Don't Call It a Shakeup: Why the Nuclear Deal Won't Change U.S. Regional Politics
The United States can't wait for a final nuclear deal with Iran to begin thinking through how to manage its aftermath. The challenges ahead are already clear. Washington should prepare for them by setting aside old formulas that have failed to advance stability.
Apr 10, 2015 Foreign Affairs
RAND Experts Q&A on the Iran Nuclear Framework
President Barack Obama hailed last week's framework for an Iranian nuclear accord as a 'historic understanding,' and there was celebration in Iran, but many challenges remain.
Apr 6, 2015 The RAND Blog
Tunisia Could Be a Model for What Works in the Mideast
Tunisia has a shot at showing that a different model in the region can succeed, a model of inclusion, tolerance and economic prosperity. It has a lot of work ahead of it, but the vision is there.
Mar 24, 2015 Los Angeles Times
New Israeli Government, New Position on Iran?
With elections taking place in Israel today, would a change of leadership lead to a fundamentally different Israeli stance on a nuclear deal? You'd think the answer was easy. But it's not.
Mar 17, 2015 Newsweek
Experts React to ISIS's Gruesome Execution of Jordanian Pilot
A grisly video released yesterday by ISIS appears to show Jordanian pilot Muath al-Kasaesbeh burned alive in a cage. Why the shift away from beheadings? What does the execution mean for Jordan? What implications will it have for ISIS?
Feb 4, 2015 The RAND Blog
Syrian Refugees: A Blessing in Disguise?
To avoid further resentment and restrictions on Syrians desperate to escape their war-torn country, as well as the instability such attitudes generate, the international community must work with host governments to increase and highlight the benefits refugee populations can bring to neighboring states.
Feb 2, 2015 The National Interest
An Iran Nuclear Deal Is Still Possible, and Here's Why
The United States and other world powers returned to the negotiating table this week to try to finalize a nuclear agreement with Iran after announcing a seven-month extension in late November. How did the parties get this far?
Dec 19, 2014 U.S. News & World Report
Not to Worry, Israel
Some Israelis worry that America's fight against the Islamic State group is distracting from the Iranian nuclear challenge. But the idea that the U.S. would make additional concessions to Iran in the nuclear negotiations because of the anti-Islamic State group effort is not based on realities on the ground.
Oct 23, 2014 U.S. News & World Report
The U.S. Can't Count on Regional Support in the Fight Against ISIS
Regional governments may put some of their differences aside to help fight ISIS. But in a region rife with turmoil and multiple internal fissures, Washington cannot count on its confrontation with ISIS as its partners' overriding priority.
Sep 16, 2014 The New York Times
RAND Experts Discuss U.S. Strategy on ISIS
President Obama outlined a strategy last week to deal with the threat posed by the terrorist group known as ISIS. RAND experts discuss the speech and the follow-up efforts so far.
Sep 15, 2014
Gaza and the Nuclear Negotiations
Whether a deal materializes that meets Iranian demands for a civilian nuclear program, but is limited enough to satisfy the United States and its partners remains to be seen. But the longer the Gaza conflict continues, the harder it'll be to insulate the negotiations from broader regional trends, which doesn't bode well for a successful outcome.
Jul 28, 2014 Foreign Affairs
The Fallacy of Iranian Leverage
Rather than helping Iran in the nuclear negotiations, Iran's battle against the ISIS could actually hurt it. The broader strategic dynamics were already working against Iran, and the situation in Iraq has only made that more true.
Jun 27, 2014 Foreign Affairs
Iran Deal: Will Israel Play Spoiler?
Israel will not embrace an agreement that is likely to leave in place some limited Iranian nuclear enrichment and infrastructure, but it nonetheless will not likely derail a deal with actions like a military strike.
Mar 12, 2014 The National Interest
A Different Israeli Take on Iran
An agreement did not come out of last week's talks. But when the participants resume negotiations later this month, they should keep one thing in mind: Not all Israelis are as alarmed about a potential deal as Netanyahu. Despite Netanyahu's hard line, many Israelis believe diplomacy can work.
Nov 12, 2013 Los Angeles Times
US Should Keep Focus on Syria, Not Iran
Those arguing for US-led airstrikes based on the premise of preventing a precedent with Iran would only make it easier for Iran and Syria to paint military action against the brutal Assad regime as an Israeli-inspired scheme rather than a regionally and internationally supported option, writes Dalia Dassa Kaye.
Sep 6, 2013 Al-Monitor
Learning the Wrong Lessons from Israel's Intervention in Syria
The lesson here is not that countries should act for the sake of maintaining credibility but that they should act when they believe it serves their interests and might make a difference, writes Dalia Dassa Kaye.
May 14, 2013 Reuters, The Great Debate blog
Israeli Election Not Likely to End Pressure on Obama for Iran Action
In the absence of any diplomatic breakthrough and the continued advance of Iran's nuclear enrichment program this year, we can expect Israeli leaders across the political spectrum to press the Obama administration for military options, writes Dalia Dassa Kaye.
Jan 23, 2013 The RAND Blog
A Crucial Difference on Iran
The dilemma is how sanctions and pressure would dissuade Iran's leaders from pursuing their nuclear program (as Mr. Romney recommended) if a President Romney wouldn't agree to sit down and talk with them, writes Dalia Dassa Kaye.
Oct 23, 2012 NYTimes.com
Israel, Iran, and the Redline Debate
Politicizing the Iran-Israel issue at Monday's presidential debate could prove a setback for efforts to ultimately prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, writes Dalia Dassa Kaye.
Oct 18, 2012 The RAND Blog
How to Tackle Iran
Instead of committing the United States to take military action against Iran, a better option would be convincing more Israeli leaders and people that a military attack is still a bad idea if the goal is to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power, writes Dalia Dassa Kaye.
Sep 6, 2012 CNN
Concerns Over Protecting Israel's Credibility May Heighten Odds of Iran War
Despite the unprecedented levels of U.S. assistance and military cooperation with Israel in recent years, Netanyahu's government does not appear convinced that the United States will deal with Iran down the road if Israel holds off now, writes Dalia Dassa Kaye.
Sep 5, 2012 The Atlantic
The Right Way to Help Syria's Rebels
The Obama administration has led international efforts to isolate and sanction those most responsible for the regime's violence, and those efforts—along with diplomacy to bring Russia and China along—should be strengthened, write Dalia Dassa Kaye and David Kaye.
Aug 9, 2012 Los Angeles Times
Israel's Risky Option on Iran
While a nuclear-armed Iran that hasn't been attacked is dangerous, one that has been attacked may be much more likely to brandish its capabilities, to make sure it does not face an attack again, writes Dalia Dassa Kaye.
Feb 21, 2012 Los Angeles Times
Do Israelis Really Want to Bomb Iran?
Much has been made over differences between the U.S. and Israeli threat perceptions of Iran, but in fact internal Israeli divisions suggest that the gap may not be as great as some suggest, writes Dalia Dassa Kaye.
Jan 12, 2012 ForeignPolicy.com
Iran Might Not Be the Big Winner of Mideast Uprisings
Mar 4, 2011 The Washington Post
A WikiLeaks Disconnect
Given domestic pressures and intra-Arab rivalries, all Arab states hedge in their policies toward Iran, seeking to rein in Iranian influence but also being mindful of the permanence of Iranian power and the costs of antagonizing it, writes Dalia Dassa Kaye.
Dec 6, 2010 Los Angeles Times
Fifth Columns in the Gulf?
While the full extent of Iran's current clandestine influence remains murky, the "proxy narrative" is instructive more for what it reveals about Gulf insecurities than any truths about Iran's capabilities or intentions write Frederic M. Wehrey and Dalia Dassa Kaye.
May 24, 2010 ForeignPolicy.com
Fighting Terror the Cold War Way
With much talk about how to “win hearts and minds” in the Muslim world, it's surprising that few are looking back to a global contest of ideas that the U.S. and its allies categorically won: the Cold War, write Todd C. Helmus and Dalia Dassa Kaye.
Oct 14, 2009 ForeignPolicy.com
Defeating Hamas Will Not Defeat Iran
In the absence of clarity of what Israel hopes to leave behind in Gaza, some observers speculate that the offensive against Hamas has a second target: Iran.... Although Hamas surely benefits from Iranian support, Iran's regional position has little to do with Hamas, writes Dalia Dassa Kaye.
Jan 14, 2009 Foreign Policy
Lebanon's Sectarian Aftershocks
Published commentary by RAND staff: Lebanon's Sectarian Aftershocks, in United Press International.
Aug 8, 2006 United Press International
