Pedro Nascimento de Lima

Pedro Nascimento de Lima
Associate Engineer
Off Site Office


Ph.D. in policy analysis, Pardee RAND Graduate School; M.Phil. in policy analysis, Pardee RAND Graduate School; M.S. in production engineering, UNISINOS - Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Brazil; B.S. in production engineering, UNISINOS - Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Brazil


Pedro Nascimento de Lima is an associate engineer at the RAND Corporation. His research leverages simulation modeling, high-performance computing, and Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty methods to inform health policy decision-analytic problems.

Prior to joining Pardee RAND, he was a lecturer at UNISINOS, where he taught simulation modeling and other quantitative courses. Both his undergraduate and master’s dissertations, focusing on wicked problems and decision under deep uncertainty, have received the Best Brazilian Dissertation in Production Engineering Prize from ABEPRO.

He has a B.S. and an M.S. in production engineering from UNISINOS University in Brazil, and a Ph.D. in policy analysis from Pardee RAND Graduate School.

Recent Projects

  • Comparative Modeling of Effective Policies for Colorectal Cancer Control
  • Modeling the Coupled Dynamics of COVID-19 Transmission and Protective Behaviors
  • World Trade Center Health Program Cost Projections
  • The Health and Economic Impacts of COVID-19 Interventions - State Policy Evaluation Tool
  • Emerging Technology and Therapeutics Report on Artificial Intelligence

Selected Publications

Nowak, S. A., Nascimento de Lima, P., & Vardavas, R, "Optimal non-pharmaceutical pandemic response strategies depend critically on time horizons and costs," Scientific Reports, 2023

Nascimento de Lima, P., van den Puttelaar, R., Hahn, A. I., Harlass, M., Collier, N., Ozik, J., . . . Rutter, C. M., "Projected long-termeffects of colorectal cancer screening disruptions following the COVID-19 pandemic," eLife, 2023

Pedro Nascimento de Lima, Robert Lempert, Raffaele Vardavas, Lawrence Baker, Jeanne Ringel, Carolyn M. Rutter, Jonathan Ozik, Nicholson Collier, "Reopening California: Seeking robust, non-Dominated COVID-19 exit strategies," PLoS ONE, 2021

Pedro Nascimento de Lima, Raffaele Vardavas, Lawrence Baker, Jeanne S. Ringel, Robert J. Lempert, Carolyn M. Rutter, Jonathan Ozik, Reopening Under Uncertainty: Stress-Testing California's COVID-19 Exit Strategy, RAND Corporation (PE-PEA1080-1), 2021

Carolyn Rutter, Pedro Nascimento de Lima, Jeffrey K. Lee, Jonathan Ozik, "Too Good to Be True? Evaluation of Colonoscopy Sensitivity Assumptions Used in Policy Models," Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention, 2021 (forthcoming)

Raffaele Vardavas, Aaron Strong, Jennifer Bouey, Jonathan Welburn, Pedro Nascimento de Lima, Lawrence Baker, Keren Zhu, Michelle Priest, Lynn Hu, Jeanne S. Ringel, The Health and Economic Impacts of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions to Address COVID-19: A Decision Support Tool for State and Local Policymakers, RAND Corporation (TL-TLA173-1), 2020

Honors & Awards

  • RAND Silver Medal, RAND Corporation
  • Innovation Spotlight Award, RAND Corporation
  • Best Brazilian Production Engineering Masters Dissertation, ABEPRO




  • Epidemiology

    Will the United States Declare Freedom from COVID-19 Too Soon?

    RAND analyzed what could happen with COVID-19 deaths in the United States if restrictions all go away on July 4. Fully reopening the economy before Biden's vaccination target was met doubled the average number of COVID-19 deaths between Independence Day and the end of the year.

    May 21, 2021

    The RAND Blog