COMPASS

A Framework for Navigating Systemic Risks

Pedro Nascimento de Lima, Flannery C. Dolan, Tim McDonald, Karishma V. Patel, Benjamin Boudreaux, Chandra Garber, Leah Dion, Sean Mann, Jonathan W. Welburn

Published Sep 23, 2025

COMPASS (Comprehensive Mapping Protocol for Anticipating and Adapting to Systemic Shocks) is a framework designed to help analysts and senior policymakers navigate systemic risks from disruptions, such as artificial intelligence adoption, pandemics, or natural disasters. It guides users through five steps to consider disruptors, primary and secondary system impacts, affected actors, relevant outcomes and policy objectives, and effective policy responses.

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Nascimento de Lima, Pedro, Flannery C. Dolan, Tim McDonald, Karishma V. Patel, Benjamin Boudreaux, Chandra Garber, Leah Dion, Sean Mann, and Jonathan W. Welburn, COMPASS: A Framework for Navigating Systemic Risks. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WRA3888-1.html.
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Funding for this research was provided by the contributions of the RAND Social and Economic Policy Advisory Board; generous gifts by Frank M. Clark, Michael J. Critelli, William A. Downe, Jihee Kim Huh and Peter Yun Huh, and the Donald M. James Family Foundation; and income from the operation of RAND Social and Economic Well-Being. The research was conducted by the RAND Social and Economic Well-Being.

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