Carter C. Price

Tackling the Existential Threats from Artificial Intelligence

Addressing potential risks posed by artificial intelligence (AI) could begin with simple steps like finding appropriate risk-management approaches, conducting research to determine how AI can better meet designers' intent, and devising responses to issues related to racism, sexism, and other biases within AI systems.

How Should the U.S. Government Buy AI Tools?

The need for AI-readiness in federal procurement will continue to grow with the capabilities of AI tools. There are concrete steps the government could take to ensure all development and implementation of AI-related laws, regulations, and executive branch policies include appropriate considerations.

ChatGPT's Work Lacks Transparency and That Is a Problem

In a world with Large Language Models such as ChatGPT, there is a growing need for modernized data literacy. Developers need to be more transparent about their algorithms and data sources so that people can assess the inherent sources of bias or problems with the approach.

The End of the U.S. COVID-19 Public Health Emergency: Q&A with RAND Experts

We asked RAND experts to reflect on the past three years: What were the effects on the United States and around the world, what has changed, what are the most important takeaways, what was done right, and what was done wrong? At the same time, they looked ahead to what might be done to mitigate the health and geopolitical impacts of future pandemics.

Keep the Vaccine Moving to Save the Most Lives

The United States is waiting to be vaccinated against COVID-19 and millions of doses wait for arms. Policymakers at the national, state, and local levels have been stockpiling the shots for many reasons. While supply ramps up, policymakers could push to deliver vaccine to people instead of freezers.

Will Thanksgiving Be a National Super-Spreader Event?

Whether or not Thanksgiving will become a national super-spreader event will depend on the size of individual holiday gatherings across the country and the rate of COVID-19 cases in each community. December could be a grim month if people don't stay home on Thanksgiving.

COVID-19 Could Become a Widespread Preexisting Condition in a Post-ACA World

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) is far from perfect, but its protections are particularly relevant to the COVID-19 pandemic. If the ACA is struck down, then protections for preexisting conditions will go with it. Policymakers should consider the potential implications for millions of COVID-19 survivors.

A $2.5 Trillion Question: What If Incomes Grew Like GDP Did?

Income inequality is an aspect of economics that resonates with many Americans: It feels like the rich are getting richer, while the rest are having a hard time just getting by. What would income distribution look like today if incomes grew apace with the economy?

Modeling the Future of COVID-19: Q&A with RAND Experts

The phrase “flatten the curve” familiarized Americans with epidemiological models used to estimate virus transmission, cases, and potential deaths from COVID-19. But new models are needed as the country enters a different stage of the crisis.

Trends in Inequality and the World's Eight Richest Men

While Oxfam reports have done a good job of bringing attention to the problem of inequality, they may lead the public and policymakers to believe that global inequality has been rising instead of falling. Global inequality has actually been on the decline while inequality within the developed world is increasing.

College Education No Panacea for Worker Inequality Woes

The earnings gap between high school and college graduates has grown with each generation, but even a college degree does not ensure a good income. Just as the nature of jobs for high school graduates has been changing due to consolidation, trade, and technology, the quality of employment for college graduates is beginning to shift.

Fixing Inequality of Opportunity

Research has fueled concerns about how income inequality drives inequality of opportunity. Commonsense approaches such as improvements in education and access to quality health care have been shown to provide young people with better opportunities.

Quick Takes: The Math of Medicaid Expansion

Expanding Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) is both contentious and complicated. RAND mathematician Carter Price has been using the COMPARE model to help those making decisions understand what their choices mean for their budgets and population health.

Data Points: Why Delay of the Employer Mandate May Not Actually Mean That Much

The bottom line is that the employer mandate does not provide a large inducement for firms to change their health insurance offerings, but it does raise a substantial amount of money to pay for the ACA's coverage provisions over time.

Firefighting Aircraft: Is Bigger Better?

An aircraft's capacity and speed largely determine the rate at which water or retardant can be applied to a fire. Very large air tankers (VLATs) certainly have the capacity to apply large amounts of fluids to a fire, but because of the distances travelled they may not be able to get a second load very quickly.

Governors Missing the Point on Medicaid

While a governor or legislator may disagree with Medicaid expansion for philosophical reasons, the claims that the expansion will be a burden on states' economies seem misguided given the full range of projected economic impacts on the states, writes Carter C. Price.

Helping Obama—and Other Americans—Weigh Which Health Insurance Exchange to Pick

Multistate plans are most likely to appeal to out-of-state students, interstate migrants, out-of-state workers, seasonal movers (e.g., “snowbirds”), and similar groups that require improved access to health care across state lines.

Modeling the Effects of the Affordable Care Act in Arkansas

The Medicaid expansion under the ACA will result in about 400,000 people newly insured in Arkansas by 2016. Of these, about 190,000 would be newly enrolled in Medicaid and the rest would be newly insured through the new insurance exchanges. The state is likely to save about $67 million for reduced uncompensated care costs for the uninsured.

What Happens Without Individual Mandate?

If the individual mandate were ruled unconstitutional, subsidies and the age structure of premiums should keep enough healthy people in the insurance exchanges to prevent huge spikes in premiums, write Carter C. Price and Christine Eibner.

Report

The Budgetary Effects of Climate Change and Their Potential Influence on Legislation: Recommendations for a Model of the Federal Budget

The authors examine the ways that climate change and climate change mitigation policy affect the federal budget, recommend ways to improve the modeling of such effects, and provide an overview of a budget model that can be used to score legislation.

Report

Streamlining Emergency Management: Issues, Impacts, and Options for Improvement

Researchers sought ways to streamline, simplify, and strengthen the U.S. emergency management system, assessing how overlap, duplication, and fragmentation could affect implementation and outcomes. They propose options and discuss trade-offs of each.

Brochure

Roadmap of Scalable Analytic Methods

Scalable analytic methods refers to a collection of data-intensive methods, including artificial intelligence, machine learning, big data, and data science. This infographic illustrates how these methods relate to traditional analytical approaches.

Report

Temporary Safety-Net Policies and Pandemic-Related Insurance Loss in New York State

Researchers assess the importance of temporary provisions relative to long-standing policies in stabilizing health insurance enrollment in New York state despite heavy job loss during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.

Research Brief

A New Approach to Measuring Income Inequality Over Recent Decades

RAND researchers identified a new, intuitive way to measure income inequality and compare income growth over time.

Research Brief

10Plan, How Would It Affect Health Care Spending by Consumers and the Federal Government

The 10Plan is a self-pay plan for individuals currently uninsured or covered by a private nongroup health insurance plan. The authors built a microsimulation model to estimate health care spending under both the status quo and the 10Plan.

Report

Analysis of the 10Plan: A Self-Pay System Designed to Minimize the Burden of Health Care Costs

The 10Plan is a self-pay plan for individuals currently uninsured or covered by a private nongroup health insurance plan. The authors built a microsimulation model to estimate health care spending under both the status quo and the 10Plan.

Report

A Model of the Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic During a Hurricane in Virginia

The threat of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic increases the complexity of risk management decisions during the hurricane season. This report examines the implications that a hurricane during the pandemic would have for Virginia.

Draft

Trends in Income From 1975 to 2018

Seeks to quantify the scale of income gap from 1975 to 2018 created by rising inequality compared to a counterfactual in which growth was shared more broadly.

Report

A Framework for Assessing Models of the COVID-19 Pandemic to Inform Policymaking in Virginia

The authors of this report reviewed available models and the relevant literature to produce a framework for assessing a model's appropriateness for policymakers responding to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Report

U.S. Military Capabilities and Forces for a Dangerous World: Rethinking the U.S. Approach to Force Planning

This report evaluates the capabilities of current and programmed U.S. forces to meet the demands of future conflicts and recommends alternative forces that appear to be better suited than today's forces to meeting those demands.

Report

The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of Gun Policies in the United States

This report synthesizes the available scientific evidence on the effects of various firearm policies on firearm deaths, violent crime, the gun industry, participation in hunting and sport shooting, and other outcomes.

Report

Financing Health Care in Oregon: Four Policy Options

This presentation describes four options for financing health care for residents of the state of Oregon and compares the projected impacts and feasibility of each option.

Report

A Comprehensive Assessment of Four Options for Financing Health Care Delivery in Oregon

This report compares the impacts and feasibility of four options for financing health care in Oregon: two state-based plans that would ensure coverage for all residents, a state-sponsored plan offered in Oregon's nongroup market, and the status quo.

Research Brief

Oregon's Options to Overhaul Health Care Financing: Health Care Reform 2.0?

This analysis of three options to reform health care payment in Oregon (two state-based plans that would ensure coverage for all state residents and a state-sponsored plan offered in Oregon's nongroup market) found benefits and trade-offs for each.

Report

Modeling Dr. Dynasaur 2.0 Coverage and Finance Proposals: Effects of the Expansion of Vermont's Dr. Dynasaur Program to All Individuals Through Age 25

The authors assessed an expansion of Vermont's Dr. Dynasaur program that would cover all residents through age 25. The current program provides health coverage for children ages 0-18 with family incomes below 317 percent of the federal poverty level.

Report

Inequality and Opportunity: The Relationship Between Income Inequality and Intergenerational Transmission of Income

This report aims to understand the extent to which inequalities in opportunity and outcomes are related -- and the mechanisms that drive that relationship -- to help evaluate which policies have the most potential to level the playing field.

Report

Evaluating the Impact of Whole-Body Vibration (WBV) on Fatigue and the Implications for Driver Safety

Summarizes findings from a review of the literature on whole-body vibration (WBV) and fatigue, in addition to looking at study designs and methodology for providing more rigorous investigations of the impact of WBV on fatigue and driver safety.

Report

Management Perspectives Pertaining to Root Cause Analyses of Nunn-McCurdy Breaches, Volume 6: Contractor Motivations and Anticipating Breaches

The authors analyze what motivates defense contractors to determine if better incentives exist to the ones now used, and analyze major defense acquisition programs to see if it is possible to identify programs that might incur a Nunn-McCurdy breach.

Infographic

How the Great State of Arkansas May Fare Under the Affordable Care Act

This infographic presents findings from a RAND analysis of the economic and other effects of the Affordable Care Act on the state of Arkansas.

Infographic

How the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May Fare Under the Affordable Care Act

This infographic presents findings from a RAND analysis of the economic and other effects of Medicaid expansion on the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.

Report

U.S. Navy Employment Options for Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs)

Assesses in what ways and to what degree unmanned surface vehicles are suitable for supporting U.S. Navy missions and functions.

Research Brief

Predictive Policing: Forecasting Crime for Law Enforcement

Predictive policing is the use of analytical techniques to prevent crime or solve past crimes. A RAND study assessed some of the most promising technical tools and tactical approaches, offering recommendations for police and developers.

Report

Predictive Policing: The Role of Crime Forecasting in Law Enforcement Operations

Predictive policing is the use of analytical techniques to help prevent crime, solve past crimes, or identify potential offenders and victims. This guide provides assessments of some of the most promising technical tools and tactical approaches.

Report

The Affordable Care Act and Health Insurance Markets: Simulating the Effects of Regulation

The authors estimate the effects of the Affordable Care Act on health insurance enrollment and premiums for ten states and for the nation overall, with a focus on outcomes in the nongroup and small group markets.

Report

Delaying the Employer Mandate: Small Change in the Short Term, Big Cost in the Long Run

RAND analysts employed the COMPARE microsimulation model to help policymakers understand the implications of the one-year delay in the Affordable Care Act's penalty on employers that do not offer affordable health insurance coverage.

Report

The Budgetary Effects of Medicaid Expansion on Pennsylvania: An Expansion on Previous Work

This addendum to a spring 2013 analysis assessing the budget effects of the expansion of Medicaid on the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania examines the sensitivity of that report's findings to alternative assumptions about the state budgetary effects.

Testimony

Expanding Medicaid Is the Best Financial Option for States

Testimony presented before the House Energy and Commerce Committee, Subcommittee on Health June 12, 2013.

Research Brief

The Math of State Medicaid Expansion

Summarizes a RAND analysis of how opting out of Medicaid expansion would affect insurance coverage and spending and whether alternative policy options -- such as partial Medicaid expansion -- could cover as many people at lower costs to states.

Journal Article

For States That Opt Out of Medicaid Expansion: 3.6 Million Fewer Insured and $8.4 Billion Less in Federal Payments

The authors conclude that in terms of coverage, cost, and federal payments, states would do best to expand Medicaid.

Report

The Economic Impact of Medicaid Expansion on Pennsylvania

The Affordable Care Act is a substantial reform of the U.S. health care insurance system. RAND researchers assessed the act’s potential economic effects on Pennsylvania, factoring in whether the state includes an expansion of Medicaid.

Report

A Two-Step Procedure to Estimate Participation and Premiums in Multistate Health Plans

The authors identified and characterized population groups that would likely be interested in enrolling in the multistate plans established by the Affordable Care Act and developed a methodology to project participation and estimate premiums.

Report

The Economic Impact of the Affordable Care Act on Arkansas

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) will increase coverage through the expansion of Medicaid and the creation of a Health Insurance Exchange with subsidies. RAND researchers analyzed the ACA’s economic impact on the state of Arkansas.

Report

Modeling Terrorism Risk to the Air Transportation System: An Independent Assessment of TSA's Risk Management Analysis Tool and Associated Methods

RAND evaluated a terrorism risk modeling tool developed by the Transportation Security Administration and Boeing to help guide program planning for aviation security.

Report

Air Attack Against Wildfires: Understanding U.S. Forest Service Requirements for Large Aircraft

A RAND study sought to help the U.S. Forest Service determine the composition of a fleet of airtankers, scoopers, and helicopters that would minimize the total social costs of wildfires, including the cost of large fires and aircraft costs.

Research Brief

Identifying a Cost-Effective Aviation Fleet for the U.S. Forest Service

This brief provides an overview of a RAND study to support the U.S. Forest Service in determining the composition of a fleet of airtankers, scoopers, and helicopters that would minimize the total social costs of wildfires.

Report

The Effect of the Affordable Care Act on Enrollment and Premiums, With and Without the Individual Mandate

This analysis used a RAND microsimulation model to predict the effects of a possible Supreme Court decision invalidating the individual mandate provision in the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act and keeping the rest of the law intact.

Research Brief

How Would Eliminating the Individual Mandate Affect Health Coverage and Premium Costs?

An analysis of the effects of implementing the Affordable Care Act without an individual mandate found that over 12 million people who would have otherwise signed up for coverage will be uninsured and premium prices will increase by 2.4 percent.

Journal Article

Small Firms' Actions in Two Areas, and Exchange Premium and Enrollment Impact

An analysis of two rules that allow small businesses to avoid participating in health reform concludes they will have only a minor impact because relatively few businesses are likely to take advantage of the options.

Report

Where Might the U.S. Army Budget Go, and How Might It Get There?

Historic trends in the U.S. Army's largest budget accounts provide context for current decisions on future spending, especially in light of the Army's diminishing role in Iraq and Afghanistan over the coming decade.

Report

Employer Self-Insurance Decisions and the Implications of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act as Modified by the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010 (ACA)

Implications of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 (as Modified by the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act) for small firms' decisions to offer self-insured health plans and consequences of self-insurance for enrollees.

Report

Changing Aircraft Carrier Procurement Schedules: Effects That a Five-Year Procurement Cycle Would Have on Cost, Availability, and Shipyard Manpower and Workload

Proposed changes to the Navy's aircraft carrier acquisition program will have little impact in the short term. Later, the force structure and the probability of meeting deployment goals shrink, along with the Navy's ability to grow the fleet.

Research Brief

How Will the Affordable Care Act Affect Employee Health Coverage at Small Businesses?

Finds that the Affordable Care Act will increase the percentage of employers that offer health coverage to workers: from 57 percent to 80 percent for firms with 50 or fewer workers, and from 90 percent to 98 percent for firms with 51 to 100 workers.

Report

Establishing State Health Insurance Exchanges: Implications for Health Insurance Enrollment, Spending, and Small Businesses

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act will increase insurance offer rates at small businesses. By 2016, rates would increase from 53 to 77 percent at firms with ten or fewer workers and from 71 to 90 percent at firms with 11 to 25 workers.

Report

Grandfathering in the Small Group Market Under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act: Effects on Offer Rates, Premiums, and Coverage

To avoid changes in current health coverage, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act exempts existing plans from some regulations. These exemptions may lead to higher employer-sponsored insurance enrollment and lower government spending.

Research Brief

RAND COMPARE Analysis of President Obama's Proposal for Health Reform

Compares President Obama's Proposal for Health Reform, the U.S. House and Senate health care reform bills, and the status quo on changes in number of uninsured and government and national costs, as estimated by the RAND COMPARE microsimulation model.

Research Brief

Coverage, Spending, and Consumer Financial Risk: How Do the Recent House and Senate Health Care Bills Compare?

Compares how two health care reform bills, HR. 3962 and H.R. 3590, passed by the U.S. House and Senate, respectively, in late 2009 compare on a variety of projections made using the RAND COMPARE microsimulation model.

Research Brief

Analysis of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (H.R. 3590)

Using the COMPARE microsimulation model, estimates the effects of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (H.R. 3590) on the number of uninsured, the costs to the federal government and the nation, and consumers' health care spending.

Research Brief

Analysis of the Affordable Health Care for America Act (H.R. 3962)

Using the COMPARE microsimulation model, estimates proposed health care reform legislation's effects on the number of uninsured, the costs to the federal government and the nation, revenues from penalty payments, and consumers' health care spending.