Clint Reach

One Year After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Experts React

We asked nearly 30 RAND experts to highlight takeaways from the first year of Russia's all-out war—and share what they're watching as the conflict in Ukraine grinds on. Here's what they said.

The Rise of the Rest: How Russia Views the Future World Order

What Russia seeks is new political leadership across the Western world that does not support a status quo that can isolate Russia from the capital and technology it needs to generate security and prosperity over the long term.

Obstacles to Lasting Peace Between Ukraine and Russia

The current situation in Ukraine suggests that neither side will be able to achieve a decisive military victory that settles the disputes that led to the war. Ukraine and Russia theoretically could reach an agreement to stop the fighting, but the politics between the two sides and centuries of confrontational history do not suggest a lasting peace.

Book Review: 'Escalation and Deescalation of Crises, Armed Conflicts, and Wars'

The evolving crisis in Ukraine has generated much discussion about whether Moscow would escalate the conflict, whether in frustration at the slow progress of its military operations, or in response to actions of other states, even possibly resorting to nuclear weapons. But what do Russian sources suggest about escalation?

Report

The Limits of Russian Manipulation: National Identity and the Origins of the War in Ukraine

Using the concept of national identity as a starting point, RAND researchers developed a framework in an effort to illuminate the underlying causes of Russian manipulation, Ukrainian resistance, and the Russia-Ukraine war.

Report

Revisiting RAND's Russia Wargames After the Invasion of Ukraine: Summary and Implications

This report summarizes reexamined RAND tabletop exercises involving Russia from the past eight years in a review of wargaming methods and analysis and presents implications for future potential conflicts involving major powers.

Report

Building U.S. Responses to Russia's Threats to Use Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons: A Game Theoretic Analysis of Brinkmanship

Using a game theory approach, the authors examine U.S. tools and levers to respond to Russia’s potential employment of nonstrategic nuclear weapons in its conflict with Ukraine.

Report

Creating Selective Overmatch: An Approach to Developing Cyberspace Options to Sustain U.S. Primacy Against Revisionist Powers

The authors apply the concept of selective overmatch to reevaluate current U.S. cyber operations in light of competition and possible conflict with China and show how this framework can provide a roadmap for U.S. Cyber Command’s future operations.

Report

Russia's Evolution Toward a Unified Strategic Operation: The Influence of Geography and Conventional Capacity

In this report, RAND researchers examine the reasons behind Russia's evolution toward a unified strategic operation, as well as the capabilities that would be necessary to execute key conventional offensive tasks in such an operation.

Report

Russian Military Strategy: Organizing Operations for the Initial Period of War

The authors of this report identify and examine several factors to assess the orientation of Russian military strategy, including the balance of power, Russian diplomacy with China, views on future war, and trends in force readiness and mobilization.

Report

Russian Military Forecasting and Analysis: The Military-Political Situation and Military Potential in Strategic Planning

In this report, the authors draw on a framework developed by the Russian military science community to gain insight into the likelihood and character of future war and the correlation of military potential between Russia and potential adversaries.

Report

Disrupting Deterrence: Examining the Effects of Technologies on Strategic Deterrence in the 21st Century

The authors examined potential implications of emerging technologies for deterrence in the context of U.S. national security policy. They identified long-term effects on two major aspects of the deterrence dynamic -- effectiveness and stability.

Report

Deterrence and Escalation in Competition with Russia: The Role of Ground Forces in Preventing Hostile Measures Below Armed Conflict in Europe

In this report, the authors seek to understand how the United States might use its military posture in Europe -- particularly focusing on ground forces -- as part of a strategy to deter Russian malign activities in the competition space.

Report

Deterrence and Escalation in Competition with Russia: Executive Summary

In this report, the authors seek to understand how the United States might use its military posture in Europe -- particularly focusing on ground forces -- as part of a strategy to deter Russian malign activities in the competition space.

Report

Russian Military Forecasting Translation Volume: 1999–2018

This translation volume compiles texts by Russian military experts and planners and covers key factors in Russian military forecasting that inform military planning decisions on force structure and training.

Report

China-Russia Cooperation: Determining Factors, Future Trajectories, Implications for the United States

Since 2014, China and Russia have strengthened their relationship. In this report, the authors seek to understand the impact of the Chinese-Russian relationship on the United States and implications for future U.S. policy.

Report

Russian Grand Strategy: Rhetoric and Reality

What is Russia's declared grand strategy? How do its actions and resource decisions match its declarations? The authors of this report offer answers to these questions and suggest implications for U.S. policymakers.

Commentary

Competing with Russia Militarily: Implications of Conventional and Nuclear Conflicts

In this Perspective, the authors illuminate the implications of a conventional military confrontation between NATO and Russia in Europe and the associated risk of nuclear escalation.

Report

Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security

Russia has long used political, military, economic, informational, and clandestine tools against countries in the Black Sea region. In this report, the authors present elements of a Western strategy to counter Russian malign influence and aggression.

Report

Russia's Limit of Advance: Analysis of Russian Ground Force Deployment Capabilities and Limitations

Analysis of Russian military capabilities reveals stark limitations in Russia's ability to safely and effectively deploy and sustain ground forces around the world.

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Russia's Limit of Advance: Scenarios

Russia's ability to deploy military forces around the world is significantly depleted from the Soviet era. This report describes the strengths and weaknesses of Russia's ground force deployment capacity.

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Russian Assessments and Applications of the Correlation of Forces and Means

The authors examine how Russia assesses and applies the correlation of forces and means -- the military balance between two opponents at the global, regional, and local levels -- and outline recent relevant developments in Russian military thought.

Report

Alternative Worldviews: Understanding Potential Trajectories of Great-Power Ideological Competition

The United States is engaged in a new era of great-power competition taking place in the realms of information, ideas, and ideology. The authors of this report analyze what a future ideological competition might look like.

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The Future of the Russian Military: Russia's Ground Combat Capabilities and Implications for U.S.-Russia Competition

Researchers analyze societal, political, economic, and demographic factors that undergird Russian military power. They also make projections about how Russian ground combat capabilities will evolve in the future and how the U.S. Army can respond.

Research Brief

What Will Russian Military Capabilities Look Like in the Future?

RAND researchers analyzed the development of Russia's military capabilities over the next 20 years -- with a focus on ground combat -- and the implications of that development for U.S.-Russian competition and for the U.S. Army.

Commentary

Strengthening Strategic Stability with Russia

This report analyzes trends in strategic stability between Russia and the United States, examines Russian views on the subject, and assesses current prospects for stemming the erosion of strategic stability.

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Russian Views of the International Order

In this report, RAND researchers analyze Russian views of the current international order, identify Russia's core interests, and highlight the underlying choices for U.S. policy going forward.