Latest NSRD Work

Defending Without Dominance: Accelerating the Transition to a New U.S. Defense Strategy September 28, 2023

This Perspective examines the gap between U.S. defense aspirations and the reality of current policy. In this Perspective, the author surveys grand strategy principles that call for a U.S. ability to project power to help deter major war in key regions, defines the U.S. defense strategic approach of the post–Cold War era and its key assumptions, and explains the reasons why these assumptions are no longer valid.
Qualities Precede Quantities: Deciding How Much Is Enough for U.S. Nuclear Forces September 27, 2023

Developments in the nuclear strategies of the People's Republic of China, Russia, and North Korea have led some to argue that the United States needs to expand its own nuclear forces to deter these potential adversaries. This Perspective articulates a framework for determining sizing for U.S. nuclear forces. The author argues that adversary perceptions should be the primary criteria for sizing U.S. nuclear forces.
Escalation in the War in Ukraine: Lessons Learned and Risks for the Future September 21, 2023

This report evaluates the potential for further escalation in the conflict in Ukraine, including the prospects for escalation to Russian nuclear use. The report is intended to inform U.S. and NATO policymakers as they consider how to avoid further escalation of the conflict while assisting Ukraine in its efforts to defeat the Russian invasion and to better inform the public debate around these issues.
Understanding the Risk of Escalation in the War in Ukraine September 21, 2023

This research brief describes analysis of escalation risks in the war in Ukraine, including what can be learned from the conflict to date and what escalation risks may be most acute going forward.
Building a Joint Cyber Weapons Acquisition Program in the Marine Corps: Software Acquisition Pathway Lessons Learned September 20, 2023

The authors present lessons learned and observations from an effort to help inform future U.S. Marine Corps Joint Cyber Weapon program acquisition information requirements and educate Department of Defense Software Acquisition Pathway (SWP) program planning efforts. Programs can better use the SWP by prioritizing the acquisition artifact schedule, ensuring stakeholder communication, tailoring artifacts to program needs, and resourcing the program effectively.
Impact of Individual Augmentation Policy on Navy Reserve Force Readiness September 7, 2023

Individual augmentation, intended to address shortages, has evolved into a standard practice. The authors examine this policy's impact on the Navy Reserve in terms of recruiting, retention, individual and unit readiness, and ability to maintain a ratio of time deployed to time at home, specifically in mobilization of forces for duty in operations associated with the Global War on Terror and in response to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.
Creating Selective Overmatch: An Approach to Developing Cyberspace Options to Sustain U.S. Primacy Against Revisionist Powers September 7, 2023

The 2022 National Defense Strategy calls for “integrated deterrence” in how the U.S. military uses its cyberspace forces to address the strategic challenges posed by revisionist powers, such as China. The authors apply the concept of selective overmatch to reevaluate current U.S. cyber operations in light of competition and possible conflict with China and show how this framework can provide a roadmap for U.S. Cyber Command’s future operations.
The Rise of Generative AI and the Coming Era of Social Media Manipulation 3.0: Next-Generation Chinese Astroturfing and Coping with Ubiquitous AI September 7, 2023

In this Perspective, the authors argue that the emergence of ubiquitous, powerful generative artificial intelligence poses a potential national security threat in terms of the risk of misuse by U.S. adversaries (in particular, for social media manipulation) that the U.S. government and broader technology and policy community should proactively address. The authors explore the Chinese military's use against Taiwan as a case study for these risks.
Rethinking Jointness? The Strategic Value of Jointness in Major Power Competition and Conflict September 5, 2023

This report examines whether the assumption that jointness—the combination of cross-service activities, capabilities, operations, and organizations that enhances and increases the capabilities of individual services beyond their organic contributions—is valuable to the U.S. military is correct. Understanding which aspects of jointness are most valuable and why can help the Department of Defense compete more effectively against its adversaries.
Proposals to Address Political Interference: Outcomes of a Trilateral Dialogue September 5, 2023

Prior to the events of February 2022, political interference was one of the most significant challenges in Russia-West relations. These proceedings reflect a series of discussions among U.S., Russian, and European Union nongovernmental experts who were convened in 2020–2021 to discuss mutual concerns regarding political interference and to find common ground on measures to address them.
A Framework of Deterrence in Space Operations August 31, 2023

This report presents a framework on the nature and requirements of deterrence in space operations. Drawing on lessons from nuclear and cyber and selected national approaches to space deterrence, it presents three archetypes for space deterrence. It concludes that a comprehensive approach to space deterrence is likely to be most successful and should be tailored to address the distinct risk calculus and informational needs of various adversaries.
Saving the Government Money: Recent Examples from RAND's Defense-Related Federally Funded Research and Development Centers August 25, 2023

RAND houses three defense-related federally funded research and development centers (FFRDCs). FFRDCs apply the research capital they have developed over the years to help decisionmakers not only solve problems but also save money. This publication lists and summarizes recent projects that have helped save the government money or identified ways to do so.
Military Academy Students Can Now Retain Parental Rights: Department of Defense Options for Managing the Change August 22, 2023

As of 2023, DoD allows enrolled cadets and midshipmen to retain parental rights. This brief explores potential DoD policy changes that could help cadet and midshipman parents care for their children, succeed in school, and become exemplary officers.
Ensuring Parental Rights of Military Service Academy Cadets and Midshipmen: Policy and Cost Implications August 22, 2023

This report characterizes legal, policy, practice, and cost implications of U.S. Department of Defense options to comply with new congressional requirements to allow service academy cadets and midshipmen who become parents to retain their parental rights. The authors also recommend changes to military policies and practices that could help these student-parents better care for their children, succeed in school, and become exemplary officers.
Weakened States Pose Problems for War Scenarios August 21, 2023

Any question of conflict between the United States and China must take into account diminishing state legitimacy and capacity, the privatization of violence, and the rise of non-state actors and identities.
Toward a New Paradigm in U.S. Foreign Policy: Harnessing the Power of American Society in Pursuit of U.S. National Security Objectives August 17, 2023

In this Perspective, the authors call for the development of a new paradigm for U.S. foreign policy—a “whole of America” approach anchored in a shared understanding that the nation’s governments, businesses, civil society, and academic institutions all have unique roles to play in defending core U.S. principles of democracy and freedom.
A Brief Overview of Emerging Vaccine Technologies for Pandemic Preparedness August 17, 2023

Over the past two decades, pandemic preparedness has proven to be critical to health, national, and economic security. This report characterizes trends and strategic implications associated with specific aspects of pandemic preparedness in the United States, China, and Russia. The authors discuss both technical and policy aspects of vaccine concepts and technologies, broad-spectrum medical countermeasures, and immunization facilitation.
Conference Proceedings on Indian and U.S. Security Cooperation: Defense Production, Indo-Pacific Region, and Afghanistan August 16, 2023

A two-day conference explored Indian and U.S. views on security across the Indo-Pacific, identifying areas of mutual interest and disagreement. Discussions were informed by six papers discussing common approaches to bilateral security cooperation, Russian arms sales to India, and the challenges posed by China to regional security. This report contains those papers and a summary of the issues.
Resisting Russia: Insights into Ukraine's Civilian-Based Actions During the First Four Months of the War in 2022 August 15, 2023

The authors examine Ukrainian civilians' contributions to support Ukraine's defense against Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. Civilian-based resistance is integral to Ukraine's territorial defense efforts and has potential value in helping ensure victory by regaining territorial integrity and maintaining political sovereignty. The war in Ukraine also offers insight into potential trends in civilian actions in future wars.
Russian Military Personnel Policy and Proficiency: Reforms and Trends, 1991–2021 August 15, 2023

The authors of this report draw on Russian-language sources to examine trends in Russian personnel policies and initiatives from the 1990s through December 2021, prior to Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. They review the pervasive challenges within the Russian military to modernizing its personnel policies and evaluate reform efforts of the late 2000s through 2021, when major military reforms were implemented.
Planning Ethical Influence Operations: A Framework for Defense Information Professionals August 11, 2023

The U.S. Department of Defense has influence tasks, capabilities, and missions but lacks a formal means for considering the ethics of influence operations aside from legal review. Using the principles of necessity, effectiveness, and proportionality, the authors develop a framework for evaluating influence efforts in three phases: an initial screening, a full ethical risk assessment, and a justification statement.
Xi's Cautious Inching Towards the China Dream August 11, 2023

Beijing’s current strategy for ensuring CCP rule through mid-century and beyond heavily emphasizes domestic threats.
The Prisoner Dilemma: Policy Options to Address Circumstances of ISIS Prisoners in Northeastern Syria August 9, 2023

RAND researchers hosted a subject matter expert workshop, supplemented by an in-depth literature review, to determine proposed courses of action to reduce security threats from and meet international standards for prisons holding presumed former Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) fighters. The prisons are insecure, presenting a danger to the region and world given their potential for fueling an ISIS resurgence with prisoners in legal limbo.
A Better Future for Ukraine and Its Partners August 2, 2023

This video includes the proceedings from a RAND National Security Research Division event held on July 17, 2023. Panelists discussed the latest developments from NATO, and looked ahead to the post-war reconstruction in Ukraine. Guest speakers include former President of the World Bank Group Robert Zoellick, former Ukraine Minister of Finance Natalie Jaresko, and former U.S. Ambassador to NATO and Lt. Gen., U.S. Army (Ret.) Douglas Lute.
The Pentagon's Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Officer: One Year In July 27, 2023

Margie Palmieri of the Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office (CDAO) joins Jim Mitre, director of RAND's International Security and Defense Policy Program, to discuss the formation and first year of the CDAO. Palmieri describes the new culture within the offices merged to become the CDAO, how the Department of Defense is faring on its goal to become more data-driven, challenges integrating data across the services, and more.
Delivering Exceptional Pain Care to Service Members July 26, 2023

The Military Health System provides high-quality care to its service members with pain conditions, offering opioids and nonpharmacologic treatment in a manner largely consistent with recommended guidance. However, there opportunities for improvement.
Improving Pain Care for Service Members: Administrator, Provider, and Patient Perspectives on Treatment, Policies, and Opportunities for Change July 26, 2023

Acute and chronic pain are common among service members, with musculoskeletal pain and injuries being the leading cause of nondeployability among active-duty service members. Interviews with Military Health System (MHS) administrators, providers, and service member patients provide on-the-ground perspectives on MHS pain care policies, highlighting strengths and potential areas for improvement and innovation in pain care across the MHS.
National Security Employment: Improving the Candidate Experience Journey Through the Personnel Vetting Process July 26, 2023

The U.S. government will need to proactively recruit, hire, screen, onboard, and provide continuous career-growth opportunities — and provide an exceptional candidate experience — to attract and retain new generations to the national security workforce. This report explores how security, suitability, and credentialing mechanisms might benefit from a formalized candidate experience strategy and framework to create a more positive vetting experience.
Review of Reserve Component Activation Data Quality July 25, 2023

In this report, the authors quantify the frequency of errors in reserve component (RC) activation data and estimate the potential impact of these errors on RC member benefits, including U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs disability compensation, qualification for the Post-9/11 GI Bill, and eligibility for TRICARE. They discuss the potential sources of each type of error and provide recommendations to mitigate these errors in the future.
Inflection Point: How to Reverse the Erosion of U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence July 25, 2023

The U.S. defense strategy and posture have become insolvent. Sustained, coordinated efforts by the United States, its allies, and its key partners are necessary to deter and defeat modern threats, including Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine and reconstituted forces and China's economic takeoff and concomitant military modernization. This report offers ideas on how to address shortcomings in defense preparations.
Not the X-Files: Mapping Public Reports of Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Across America July 25, 2023

There is growing interest among U.S. government, defense, and intelligence organizations about unidentified aerial phenomena (UAPs) flying in U.S. airspace. Public reporting of UAPs may help government officials identify potential threats. In this report, RAND researchers examine where UAPs are being reported to increase awareness of the types of activities that might be mistaken for unexplained phenomena or that point to potential threats.
The Global Economy at the Firm-Level: Estimating Input-Output Linkages in Production Networks and the Potential for Systemic Risk July 20, 2023

Estimates a true firm-level model with global input-output linkages in production networks and the potential for systemic risk.
Assessment of Deployment- and Mobilization-to-Dwell Policies for Active and Reserve Component Forces: An Examination of Current Policy Using Select U.S. Joint Force Elements July 20, 2023

Using case studies of four joint force elements — the Army's armored brigade combat team, the Marine Corps' infantry battalion, the Air Force's KC-135 fleet, and the Navy's aircraft carrier — RAND researchers examine Department of Defense (DoD) policy that governs how much time service members must spend at home relative to time spent deployed or mobilized. They then suggest policy changes to inform and optimize DoD's force utilization decisions.
Like-Minded Allies? Indo-Pacific Partners' Views on Possible Changes in the U.S. Relationship with Taiwan July 20, 2023

Debates about options for future U.S. policy toward Taiwan tend to focus on how each would affect China's calculus on invading the island, but another important consideration is how U.S. allies in the region would respond. The authors of this report examine how Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the Philippines would react to the United States signaling either an increase or a decrease in its support of Taiwan.
Assessing Misperceptions Online About the Security Clearance Process July 20, 2023

The authors of this report describe and analyze online information and potential misinformation about the security clearance process. Internet access allows the public to inquire about this process on public forums. Reviewing the content on such forums provides insight into what people are asking — and what answers they are getting — to reveal potential misperceptions about the process.
An Assessment of Two-Year Probationary Period Usage Within the Defense Civilian Workforce: A Report Prepared for the U.S. Department of Defense in Compliance with Section 1102 of the Fiscal Year 2020 National Defense Authorization Act July 19, 2023

Poor employee performance and employee misconduct are important workforce management issues for the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), given both their prevalence and potential impact on productivity. As such, the probationary period is a critical time to address both concerns. This report summarizes the results of a congressionally mandated independent review of DoD's use of the two-year probationary period for new civil service appointments.
Preparing for Great Power Conflict: How Experience Shapes U.S. and Chinese Military Training July 12, 2023

The authors examine how direct combat experience has shaped the way the U.S. military approaches training and how indirect experience outside combat has shaped the approach of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The authors then consider the extent to which training and operational model adaptations in both militaries have kept pace with an evolving global context and prepared the U.S. military and PLA for great power conflict.
Educating and Training the Department of Defense Workforce for Global Health Engagement to Support the Geographic Combatant Commands July 11, 2023

This report provides (1) a concept for tailoring global health engagement education and training (E&T) to target populations that could serve as a focal point for discussions of U.S. Department of Defense E&T guidance and (2) a tiered framework for implementing the authors' policy recommendations, including for the offices of primary responsibility and offices of coordinating responsibility, along with potential implementation challenges.
Assessing Technology Platforms for Global Health Engagement to Support Integration of Efforts Across Geographic Combatant Commands July 11, 2023

Global health engagement (GHE) is an integral part of U.S. Department of Defense cooperation efforts with partner nations and provides support in training and preparing their military and civilian health systems. In this report, the authors assess the technology and process requirements to support the life cycle of GHE activities and assessments — from planning to evaluation — and the information- and knowledge-sharing needs of the GHE community.
Funding Global Health Engagement to Support the Geographic Combatant Commands July 11, 2023

Global health engagement (GHE) provides an important mechanism to work with allies and partners to develop their medical capacity and medical support capabilities and improve U.S. interoperability with allies and partners. In this report, the authors identify the evolving GHE priorities of five of the six geographic commands and the challenges they face supporting combatant command objectives with current sources of funding for GHE activities.
Russian Logistics and Sustainment Failures in the Ukraine Conflict: Status as of January 1, 2023 July 11, 2023

Before its invasion of Ukraine, the Russian military enjoyed a reputation as a professional and modernized force — a reputation widely accepted in the West. However, the Russian military's battlefield performance has not lived up to expectations since its invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. The authors examine the issues of logistics and sustainment facing Russia's forces throughout its campaign against Ukraine.
Keeping the World Close: How Taiwan Can Maintain Contact with Allies, Supporters, and Its Own People If Attacked July 6, 2023

Taiwan's ability to command its military forces, communicate with its citizens, and coordinate with international allies is dependent on terrestrial, submarine, and satellite networks. In this Perspective, the author discusses the vulnerabilities of Taiwan's information networks and proposes actions that Taiwan should take to mitigate lost capabilities if attacked by China.
Australia's Sovereign Capability in Military Weapons July 5, 2023

In 2021, the then–Australian Prime Minister announced the accelerated creation of what became Australia's Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordnance (GWEO) Enterprise. The authors of this Perspective discuss the objectives of the GWEO Enterprise and examine options to achieve these objectives, specifically whether to build weapons domestically or buy them abroad.
Novel Methods to Assess the Military's Evolving Prevention Capabilities: Development and Pilot Test of the On-Site Installation Evaluation Process June 28, 2023

Preventing sexual assault, sexual harassment, suicide, and domestic violence among service members is essential to maintain a ready force. This report describes the development, pilot test, and validity testing of new prevention capability metrics for use by the Department of Defense to improve prevention. These metrics, as part of an integrated process of risk identification and assessment, will help identify gaps in prevention capability.
Six Lessons from Ukraine for Japanese Defense Planners June 27, 2023

Japanese leaders have already begun internalizing key lessons from Ukraine. Researcher Jeffrey Hornung considers the war in Ukraine from the perspective of a Japanese decisionmaker.
Assessing the Impact of Diverse Intermediate Force Capabilities and Integrating Them into Wargames for the U.S. Department of Defense and NATO June 27, 2023

This report describes how to evaluate the tactical, operational, and strategic impact of intermediate force capabilities (IFCs), which cause less-than-lethal effects; these include non-lethal weapons, electromagnetic warfare, cyber defense, and information operations. The authors also discuss how IFCs can be better integrated into wargaming, modeling, and simulation to facilitate their usage in U.S. and NATO-wide operations.
Can Taiwan Resist a Large-Scale Military Attack by China? Assessing Strengths and Vulnerabilities in a Potential Conflict June 27, 2023

In this report, the authors develop a framework for assessing a country's capacity to resist a large-scale attack. The authors then use that framework to assess Taiwan's capacity to withstand such an attack by China for at least 90 days. An accurate assessment of Taiwan's ability to sustain a defense could help U.S. decisionmakers and planners better anticipate and respond in such a situation.
Simulating Chinese Gray Zone Coercion of Taiwan: Identifying Redlines and Escalation Pathways June 22, 2023

This paper shares the results of an exercise hosted by the RAND Corporation to explore the risk of escalation from Chinese activities in the gray zone to conventional war. The results showed an overall low risk of Taiwanese escalation because of Chinese military power and Chinese and U.S. constraints on Taiwan's decisionmaking. The exercise's U.S. team would consider escalation to military force only if Taiwan faced an existential threat.
Exploring Differences in Organizational Culture Within the Department of Defense June 22, 2023

The authors of this report analyzed the organizational culture of communities within the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) to understand how the current culture could be characterized and how DoD's culture varies within the department using the Competing Values Framework (CVF) as an organizing framework for their analysis. The CVF differentiates among types of organizational culture using four dimensions: Adhocracy, Hierarchy, Clan, and Market.
Terrorism, Dynamic Commitment Problems, and Military Conflict June 21, 2023

Why do states initiate costly wars when the risk posed by terrorism appears marginal? We present two explanations and empirical evidence.
Scientific and Technological Flows Between the United States and China June 15, 2023

Strategic competition between the United States and China colors how bilateral science and technology collaboration is interpreted in the United States. The objective of this report is to quantify and describe three types of scientific and technological flows between the United States and China to help assess the net effect of these types of flows on U.S. national security.
Reconstructing Ukraine: Creating a Freer, More Prosperous, and Secure Future June 14, 2023

The devastating economic and social damage of Russia's war in Ukraine continues; however, it is not too early to plan for the country's post-war reconstruction. The authors of this analysis draw on lessons from relevant historical examples of post-war and post–natural disaster reconstruction to provide concrete insights on how to organize, finance, and provide security for Ukraine's reform and reconstruction.
Toward a Unified Multiscale Computational Model of the Human Body's Immediate Responses to Blast-Related Trauma: Proceedings and Expert Findings from a U.S. Department of Defense International State-of-the-Science Meeting June 13, 2023

These conference proceedings summarize the tenth U.S. Department of Defense International State-of-the-Science Meeting on Blast Injury Research, held at the RAND Corporation in 2022. More than 60 scientists, clinicians, and military leaders provided scientific overviews, presentations, and posters describing new and emerging science in the field of multiscale computational modeling of the human body’s response to blast-related trauma.
Chinese Strategy in the Freely Associated States and American Territories in the Pacific: Implications for the United States: Addendum June 12, 2023

Document submitted June 5, 2023, as an addendum to testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Natural Resources, Subcommittee on Indian and Insular Affairs on May 16, 2023.
Competitive Alliances and Civil War Recurrence June 8, 2023

Why do internal wars start anew after they apparently end? This essay examines competition between allied rebel groups in civil wars as a contributor to civil war renewal.
Entente Versus Alliance: When Should States Be Friends but Not Allies? June 8, 2023

This essay examines the conditions under which states choose to adopt formal alliances or instead craft ambiguous relations, commonly known as ententes.
Invisible Blockades and Strategic Coercion June 7, 2023

The use of naval mines goes back more than two centuries, but the use of these weapons by both Russia and Ukraine has renewed discussion about the value of this technology for modern warfare.
Not-So-Great Powers: U.S.-China Rivalry in the Neomedieval Age June 7, 2023

Counterintuitive as might sound, U.S. decisionmakers should avoid strategies and methods drawn from industrial-age great power competition.
An Unwinnable War: Washington Needs an Endgame in Ukraine June 6, 2023

While the Western response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine was clear from the start, the objective has been nebulous. After over a year of fighting, the likely direction of this war is coming into focus.
Military-to-Civilian Occupational Matching: Using the O*NET to Provide Match Recommendations for the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force June 6, 2023

The authors use a method for military-to-civilian occupational matching previously developed by RAND Corporation researchers for the U.S. Army and extend it to the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force. The method involves administering the U.S. Department of Labor's Occupational Information Network (O*NET) survey to service members in selected military occupations and comparing these data with the O*NET data collected for civilian occupations.
U.S.-China Rivalry in a Neomedieval World: Security in an Age of Weakening States June 6, 2023

Since about 2000, the world has been in a period that mixes some aspects of modern life and a much more substantial attenuation of others and features weakening states, fragmenting societies, imbalanced economies, pervasive threats, and the informalization of warfare. This report examines how the U.S.-China rivalry might unfold in this neomedieval era. Many theories about why and how great powers compete will need to be reconsidered.
The Time for International Space Traffic Management Is Now June 5, 2023

As space traffic becomes more congested, risks to space objects and space-related services grow. The authors offer recommendations to make progress in establishing an international space traffic management organization to combat those risks.
International Space Traffic Management: Charting a Course for Long-Term Sustainability June 5, 2023

As outer space becomes more congested, contested, and competitive, the risks to space safety, security, and sustainability heighten. Against this backdrop, the authors used a review of relevant literature and official documents, as well as interviews and workshops with subject-matter experts, to identify lessons from past approaches to international traffic management and offer recommendations to make progress in space traffic management.
Geographical Access to Specialized Behavioral Health Treatment Programs for U.S. Active Duty Service Members and Military Families from Military Installations June 1, 2023

The purpose of this study is to determine geographical access to specialized behavioral health programs tailored to active duty U.S. service members and military families from military installations.
Chinese Next-Generation Psychological Warfare: The Military Applications of Emerging Technologies and Implications for the United States June 1, 2023

This report explores Chinese military thinking about next-generation psychological warfare, with a special focus on the applications of emerging technologies and implications for the United States. As the U.S. military increases its focus on China, it is important to understand how Chinese psychological warfare capabilities may evolve and what this would mean for Chinese strategic behavior in a crisis or conflict.
National Guard Youth ChalleNGe: Program Progress in 2021–2022 June 1, 2023

National Guard Youth ChalleNGe is a residential, quasi-military program for young people ages 16 to 18 who are experiencing difficulty in traditional high school. This report covers the program years 2021–2022 and is the seventh in a series of annual reports that RAND Corporation researchers have issued over the course of two research projects. Each report documents the progress of participants entering ChalleNGe during specific program years.
Examining New Approaches for Implementing Vaccine Mandates Within the Department of Defense: How Lessons Learned from COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates Could Improve Future Vaccination Campaigns May 30, 2023

In this report, the authors examine how the Department of Defense (DoD) coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination program was developed and implemented, determine how previous DoD vaccination programs influenced those decisions, and identify opportunities to strengthen the department's vaccination program, particularly against emerging infectious diseases, such as COVID-19.
Climate and Readiness: Understanding Climate Vulnerability of U.S. Joint Force Readiness May 24, 2023

Climate hazards adversely affect the physical environment in which the U.S. Department of Defense must operate, thereby adversely affecting the performance of the joint force. Acknowledging that climate effects will likely become more severe as global temperatures rise, the authors of this report discuss findings from a study they conducted to develop links between climate and force readiness.
Rethink Mine Countermeasures May 23, 2023

Despite efforts to reduce the timelines, costs,and risks associated with MCM operations, mines remain cost-imposing weapons that can deny access for protracted periods or inflict unacceptable losses on the U.S. Navy.
Aerial Minefields Can Put the 'Miss' in Missiles May 23, 2023

The growing missile threat is the greatest tactical challenge of the early 21st century. Adversaries ranging from near-peer competitors to rebel groups increasingly can wield highly accurate missiles that can strike ships, ground forces, and key installations.
Strategic Competition in the Arctic May 23, 2023

The Arctic's strategic significance has been largely overlooked since the closing days of the Cold War. In this article, we begin by briefly characterising the Arctic and its military significance, followed by a brief review of its military history.
Coast Guard Operations: Emerging Challenges and Responses May 19, 2023

Coast guards around the globe face a tremendous confluence of challenges. By anticipating these challenges and finding ways to overcome them, coastguards around the globe can continue to protect both people at sea and the maritime environment.
Defend Taiwan with Naval Mines May 19, 2023

As part of a porcupine strategy, mine warfare can make Taiwan less vulnerable to attack.
What Should Future U.S. Policy Toward Russia Be in Peacetime? Evaluating Trade-Offs of a Less-Hardline Approach May 17, 2023

Using four historical case studies, the authors found that limited less-hardline approaches can lead to durable but narrow gains. However, issues left unaddressed by these approaches may still undermine the relationship over the long term.
Future U.S. Peacetime Policy Toward Russia: Exploring the Benefits and Costs of a Less-Hardline Approach May 17, 2023

After the Ukraine war ends, U.S.-Russian relations will remain hostile. But future U.S. policymakers will also need to balance competing demands and might therefore consider a peacetime limited less-hardline approach toward Russia. Using four historical case studies, the authors found that such approaches can lead to durable but narrow gains without emboldening the rival. But such policies may not prevent later deterioration of the relationship.
Chinese Strategy in the Freely Associated States and American Territories in the Pacific: Implications for the United States May 16, 2023

Testimony presented before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Natural Resources, Subcommittee on Indian and Insular Affairs on May 16, 2023.
Domestic Abuse in the Armed Forces: Improving Prevention and Outreach May 16, 2023

Domestic abuse is among many harmful behaviors of concern to the U.S. Department of Defense because of its consequences for military personnel, their families, and military readiness. This research took a two-pronged approach to identify military-specific recommended domestic abuse prevention practices through virtual expert panels and a systematic scoping review of the literature.
Domestic Abuse Prevention and Outreach Approaches for the Military Community May 16, 2023

This study focused on identifying strategies to help prevent domestic abuse among service members and their spouses or partners before it occurs and strategies for outreach to high-risk groups that could be effective in the military environment.
Can the United States Deter Threats from Uncertain Origins? Examining the Cases of Havana Syndrome, SolarWinds, and the Chinese Mafia May 11, 2023

The mystery surrounding the so-called Havana Syndrome illustrates the challenge of mustering a response to a national security threat when the threat, the underlying method, and the actor behind the threat are not understood with certainty. This report explores the applicability of existing concepts for deterrence and compellence using brief case studies.
Wargames Can't Tell Us How to Deter a Chinese Attack on Taiwan — But Different Games Might May 5, 2023

Wargames that simulate combat between the United States and China near Taiwan can provide useful insight about potential military challenges.
Is China Planning to Attack Taiwan? A Careful Consideration of Available Evidence Says No May 5, 2023

Is China preparing to invade Taiwan within the next two decades? In the past year, fears that war could break out in the Taiwan Strait have grown palpable, owing in large part to the shock of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Could Beijing Risk a Diversionary War Against Taiwan? May 5, 2023

The combination of a weakening strategic situation and an increasingly despotic regime has left Xi with few constraints on his power, leaving many to fear that he could risk military adventurism as a diversion from China's deteriorating situation.
Decision Aid Framework Development to Inform the Application of Federal Assistance: Improving Sharing of Criminal History Record Information for Personnel Vetting May 3, 2023

Researchers identified factors that inhibit the provision of criminal history record information to the Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency (DCSA) from law enforcement agencies and developed a decision aid framework that allows DCSA to prioritize these organizations according to DCSA goals when assessing which localities might benefit from targeted federal assistance.
Terrorism Net Assessment May 2, 2023

This report offers a preliminary conception of how to determine the capabilities the United States needs to remain safe from international terrorism. The framework provides an indicative assessment of competing demands for high-priority counterterrorism means, especially considering the prioritization of the Indo-Pacific Command area of responsibility in the emerging national defense strategy that seeks to deter war with great powers.
How Can DoD Compare Damage Costs Against Resilience Investment Costs for Climate-Driven Natural Hazards? Overview of an Analytic Approach, Its Advantages, and Its Limitations April 28, 2023

U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) installations have been affected by extreme weather events, which are likely to increase in frequency and severity because of climate change. DoD sets priorities for investing in installation resilience to adapt to these climate hazards. This report focuses on assessing methods that compare the damage costs resulting from extreme weather events against the costs of enhancing installation resilience.
Demographic Diversity of the Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Workforce in the U.S. Department of Defense: Analysis of Compensation and Employment Outcomes April 27, 2023

The authors examine demographic-group compensation differences in the U.S. Department of Defense's civilian science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) workforce. The authors provide a workforce overview, accounting for other characteristics that affect compensation; conclude that STEM workers are compensated differently according to gender, race, and ethnicity; and offer recommendations to address these inequalities.
Characterizing the Uncrewed Systems Industrial Base April 26, 2023

The Department of Defense (DoD) has hypothesized that the demand signal for uncrewed systems (UxS) in the coming years will strain the capacity of the defense industrial base (DIB). DoD asked the RAND Corporation to report on relevant risks, issues, and opportunities to support DoD's ongoing activities. The authors of this report analyze a number of aspects of UxS and provide recommendations on strengthening the DIB.
Assessing Security Risk in a New Normal: Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Personal and Work Behaviors April 26, 2023

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on a wide variety of risk behaviors and indicators that are considered during security, suitability, and credentialing investigations and adjudications. In this report, the authors suggest ways to adjust the baseline of risk considerations to allow for better identification and management of risky behavior and separate it from what might be considered normal coping strategies in abnormal times.
Comparing Taliban Social Media Usage by Language: Who's Speaking and What's Being Said April 25, 2023

By examining Taliban leadership use of Twitter in various regional languages and in English, the authors sought to clarify messaging broadcast via this medium and to determine whether messaging in various languages was similar or different. The research focused on three areas: economic concerns, relationships with other militant groups and neighboring countries, and the status of women in Afghan society.
A History of the Strategic Implications of the Great Recession and Its Aftermath on U.S. National Defense April 25, 2023

In this history of the effects of the Great Recession and a national focus on deficit reduction on U.S. DoD decisionmaking, the authors detail a concurrent shift in strategic focus from a decade of counterterrorism operations toward possible future near-peer conflict. They examine DoD's efforts to manage resource constraints while maintaining its ability to meet changing security demands in a dynamic threat environment.
Network Logistics Games: Design and Implementation April 19, 2023

Logistics are often ignored or abstracted at a very high level during operational wargames. This report details a logistics game design that reflects the complexity of logistics systems without requiring computer aids. This game design is flexible enough to accommodate a variety of scenarios, objectives, and modifications.
Artificial Intelligence: Challenges and Opportunities for the Department of Defense April 19, 2023

Testimony presented to the U.S. Senate Committee on Armed Services, Subcommittee on Cybersecurity, on April 19, 2023.
Imagining the Future of Professional Military Education in the United States: Results from a Virtual Workshop April 18, 2023

Professional military education (PME) institutions prepare leaders for complex future conflicts. PME abruptly adapted during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, so a group of RAND researchers led a workshop with participants from various PME institutions, J7 Directorate for Joint Force Development, RAND colleagues, and others to discuss objectives, requirements, capabilities, and implementation options for the evolution of PME programs.
U.S.-China Aviation Competition: Military, Commercial, and General Aviation are Different April 13, 2023

Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on April 13, 2023.
The Chinese Acquisition Process April 13, 2023

Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on April 13, 2023.
Improving Transition Assistance for Reserve Component Members April 12, 2023

This report presents findings that identify (1) unmet needs for transitioning reserve component members, (2) the impact of current reserve component Transition Assistance Program (TAP) requirements on individuals and units, and (3) potential improvements to TAP. Drawing from these findings, the authors present recommendations for improving TAP's effectiveness in addressing reserve component members' transition needs.
How the Ukraine War Accelerates the Defense Strategy April 11, 2023

This piece explores the implications of the Defense Department's support for Ukraine on the National Defense Strategy, and support for Taiwan in particular.
Cyber Threats to Canada's Defence Infrastructure April 6, 2023

Testimony presented before the Canadian Senate Standing Committee on National Security, Defence and Veterans Affairs on March 20, 2023.
India-China Border Tensions and U.S. Strategy in the Indo-Pacific April 5, 2023

India-China border intrusions and clashes have become more frequent and threaten to lead to all-out conflict between the two Asian giants.
Could Dementia in the National Security Workforce Create a Security Threat? April 4, 2023

Individuals who hold or held a security clearance and handled classified material could become a security threat if they develop dementia and unwittingly share government secrets. The exploratory research discussed in this Perspective highlights the factors involved in dementia becoming a risk to global and national security, proposes a framework to assess the risk, and guides further study of this potential threat.

Latest NSRD Work

Defending Without Dominance: Accelerating the Transition to a New U.S. Defense Strategy September 28, 2023

Qualities Precede Quantities: Deciding How Much Is Enough for U.S. Nuclear Forces September 27, 2023

Escalation in the War in Ukraine: Lessons Learned and Risks for the Future September 21, 2023

Understanding the Risk of Escalation in the War in Ukraine September 21, 2023

Building a Joint Cyber Weapons Acquisition Program in the Marine Corps: Software Acquisition Pathway Lessons Learned September 20, 2023

Impact of Individual Augmentation Policy on Navy Reserve Force Readiness September 7, 2023

Creating Selective Overmatch: An Approach to Developing Cyberspace Options to Sustain U.S. Primacy Against Revisionist Powers September 7, 2023

The Rise of Generative AI and the Coming Era of Social Media Manipulation 3.0: Next-Generation Chinese Astroturfing and Coping with Ubiquitous AI September 7, 2023

Rethinking Jointness? The Strategic Value of Jointness in Major Power Competition and Conflict September 5, 2023

Proposals to Address Political Interference: Outcomes of a Trilateral Dialogue September 5, 2023

A Framework of Deterrence in Space Operations August 31, 2023

Saving the Government Money: Recent Examples from RAND's Defense-Related Federally Funded Research and Development Centers August 25, 2023

Military Academy Students Can Now Retain Parental Rights: Department of Defense Options for Managing the Change August 22, 2023

Ensuring Parental Rights of Military Service Academy Cadets and Midshipmen: Policy and Cost Implications August 22, 2023

Weakened States Pose Problems for War Scenarios August 21, 2023

Toward a New Paradigm in U.S. Foreign Policy: Harnessing the Power of American Society in Pursuit of U.S. National Security Objectives August 17, 2023

A Brief Overview of Emerging Vaccine Technologies for Pandemic Preparedness August 17, 2023

Conference Proceedings on Indian and U.S. Security Cooperation: Defense Production, Indo-Pacific Region, and Afghanistan August 16, 2023

Resisting Russia: Insights into Ukraine's Civilian-Based Actions During the First Four Months of the War in 2022 August 15, 2023

Russian Military Personnel Policy and Proficiency: Reforms and Trends, 1991–2021 August 15, 2023

Planning Ethical Influence Operations: A Framework for Defense Information Professionals August 11, 2023

Xi's Cautious Inching Towards the China Dream August 11, 2023

The Prisoner Dilemma: Policy Options to Address Circumstances of ISIS Prisoners in Northeastern Syria August 9, 2023

A Better Future for Ukraine and Its Partners August 2, 2023

The Pentagon's Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Officer: One Year In July 27, 2023

Delivering Exceptional Pain Care to Service Members July 26, 2023

Improving Pain Care for Service Members: Administrator, Provider, and Patient Perspectives on Treatment, Policies, and Opportunities for Change July 26, 2023

National Security Employment: Improving the Candidate Experience Journey Through the Personnel Vetting Process July 26, 2023

Review of Reserve Component Activation Data Quality July 25, 2023

Inflection Point: How to Reverse the Erosion of U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence July 25, 2023

Not the X-Files: Mapping Public Reports of Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Across America July 25, 2023

The Global Economy at the Firm-Level: Estimating Input-Output Linkages in Production Networks and the Potential for Systemic Risk July 20, 2023

Assessment of Deployment- and Mobilization-to-Dwell Policies for Active and Reserve Component Forces: An Examination of Current Policy Using Select U.S. Joint Force Elements July 20, 2023

Like-Minded Allies? Indo-Pacific Partners' Views on Possible Changes in the U.S. Relationship with Taiwan July 20, 2023

Assessing Misperceptions Online About the Security Clearance Process July 20, 2023

An Assessment of Two-Year Probationary Period Usage Within the Defense Civilian Workforce: A Report Prepared for the U.S. Department of Defense in Compliance with Section 1102 of the Fiscal Year 2020 National Defense Authorization Act July 19, 2023

Preparing for Great Power Conflict: How Experience Shapes U.S. and Chinese Military Training July 12, 2023

Educating and Training the Department of Defense Workforce for Global Health Engagement to Support the Geographic Combatant Commands July 11, 2023

Assessing Technology Platforms for Global Health Engagement to Support Integration of Efforts Across Geographic Combatant Commands July 11, 2023

Funding Global Health Engagement to Support the Geographic Combatant Commands July 11, 2023

Russian Logistics and Sustainment Failures in the Ukraine Conflict: Status as of January 1, 2023 July 11, 2023

Keeping the World Close: How Taiwan Can Maintain Contact with Allies, Supporters, and Its Own People If Attacked July 6, 2023

Australia's Sovereign Capability in Military Weapons July 5, 2023

Novel Methods to Assess the Military's Evolving Prevention Capabilities: Development and Pilot Test of the On-Site Installation Evaluation Process June 28, 2023

Six Lessons from Ukraine for Japanese Defense Planners June 27, 2023

Assessing the Impact of Diverse Intermediate Force Capabilities and Integrating Them into Wargames for the U.S. Department of Defense and NATO June 27, 2023

Can Taiwan Resist a Large-Scale Military Attack by China? Assessing Strengths and Vulnerabilities in a Potential Conflict June 27, 2023

Simulating Chinese Gray Zone Coercion of Taiwan: Identifying Redlines and Escalation Pathways June 22, 2023

Exploring Differences in Organizational Culture Within the Department of Defense June 22, 2023

Terrorism, Dynamic Commitment Problems, and Military Conflict June 21, 2023

Scientific and Technological Flows Between the United States and China June 15, 2023

Reconstructing Ukraine: Creating a Freer, More Prosperous, and Secure Future June 14, 2023

Toward a Unified Multiscale Computational Model of the Human Body's Immediate Responses to Blast-Related Trauma: Proceedings and Expert Findings from a U.S. Department of Defense International State-of-the-Science Meeting June 13, 2023

Chinese Strategy in the Freely Associated States and American Territories in the Pacific: Implications for the United States: Addendum June 12, 2023

Competitive Alliances and Civil War Recurrence June 8, 2023

Entente Versus Alliance: When Should States Be Friends but Not Allies? June 8, 2023

Invisible Blockades and Strategic Coercion June 7, 2023

Not-So-Great Powers: U.S.-China Rivalry in the Neomedieval Age June 7, 2023

An Unwinnable War: Washington Needs an Endgame in Ukraine June 6, 2023

Military-to-Civilian Occupational Matching: Using the O*NET to Provide Match Recommendations for the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force June 6, 2023

U.S.-China Rivalry in a Neomedieval World: Security in an Age of Weakening States June 6, 2023

The Time for International Space Traffic Management Is Now June 5, 2023

International Space Traffic Management: Charting a Course for Long-Term Sustainability June 5, 2023

Geographical Access to Specialized Behavioral Health Treatment Programs for U.S. Active Duty Service Members and Military Families from Military Installations June 1, 2023

Chinese Next-Generation Psychological Warfare: The Military Applications of Emerging Technologies and Implications for the United States June 1, 2023

National Guard Youth ChalleNGe: Program Progress in 2021–2022 June 1, 2023

Examining New Approaches for Implementing Vaccine Mandates Within the Department of Defense: How Lessons Learned from COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates Could Improve Future Vaccination Campaigns May 30, 2023

Climate and Readiness: Understanding Climate Vulnerability of U.S. Joint Force Readiness May 24, 2023

Rethink Mine Countermeasures May 23, 2023

Aerial Minefields Can Put the 'Miss' in Missiles May 23, 2023

Strategic Competition in the Arctic May 23, 2023

Coast Guard Operations: Emerging Challenges and Responses May 19, 2023

Defend Taiwan with Naval Mines May 19, 2023

What Should Future U.S. Policy Toward Russia Be in Peacetime? Evaluating Trade-Offs of a Less-Hardline Approach May 17, 2023

Future U.S. Peacetime Policy Toward Russia: Exploring the Benefits and Costs of a Less-Hardline Approach May 17, 2023

Chinese Strategy in the Freely Associated States and American Territories in the Pacific: Implications for the United States May 16, 2023

Domestic Abuse in the Armed Forces: Improving Prevention and Outreach May 16, 2023

Domestic Abuse Prevention and Outreach Approaches for the Military Community May 16, 2023

Can the United States Deter Threats from Uncertain Origins? Examining the Cases of Havana Syndrome, SolarWinds, and the Chinese Mafia May 11, 2023