Will the United States Declare Freedom from COVID-19 Too Soon?

President Biden this month announced a new COVID-19 goal: 160 million Americans fully vaccinated by July 4.

So, will Independence Day mark the date when normalcy returns in earnest? Should it? Already the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has announced new, relaxed mask guidelines. Many states are setting dates to lift remaining public health restrictions and “fully reopen”—even those that are falling behind on vaccinations.

RAND used its COVID-19 model to analyze what could happen with COVID-19 deaths in the United States if the restrictions—capacity limits on businesses, closed schools, mask mandates—all go away on July 4. In our model, any virus variant is presumed to be more transmissible, but not more deadly, and vaccines are assumed to be equally effective against a variant, as is currently the case for the strains circulating in Brazil and India. Our model is based on the age-population distribution and projected number of cases in California, but we expect these dynamics to hold across other states.

We simulated thousands of scenarios of how the pandemic potentially could unfold in the months ahead: Would new variants of the virus spread faster and further? Would vaccine hesitancy decrease? Each simulation produced projections for cases and deaths. For comparison, we grouped all these possible outcomes into two sets: Those in which Biden's target—about 60 percent of adults fully vaccinated—was met, versus with those in which vaccination rates fell short.

Here's what we saw: Fully reopening an economy before the target was met doubled the average number of COVID-19 deaths between Independence Day and the end of the year—nearly all of these deaths coming from the portion of the population that is still unvaccinated. Surges in cases and deaths were more probable, more severe, and occurred earlier.

Figure 1 shows the number of daily deaths per 100,000 population in those two sets of scenarios. The thick line represents the average outcome. The shaded regions show other possible—but decreasingly likely—outcomes. These results do not specifically represent any one state; instead, they model the effects of meeting Biden's target across a range of plausible scenarios.

Biden's Target Not Met (<60% Fully Vaccinated)

Biden's Target Met (>60% Fully Vaccinated)

Date	Meets Biden's Goal	Daily Deaths	Probability
7/4/21	FALSE	2.62E-07	0.05
7/4/21	FALSE	3.14E-07	0.1
7/4/21	FALSE	3.83E-07	0.2
7/4/21	FALSE	4.29E-07	0.3
7/4/21	FALSE	4.68E-07	0.4
7/4/21	FALSE	5.13E-07	0.5
7/4/21	FALSE	5.62E-07	0.6
7/4/21	FALSE	6.26E-07	0.7
7/4/21	FALSE	7.17E-07	0.8
7/4/21	FALSE	8.54E-07	0.9
7/4/21	FALSE	9.68E-07	0.95
7/4/21	TRUE	2.14E-07	0.05
7/4/21	TRUE	2.40E-07	0.1
7/4/21	TRUE	2.73E-07	0.2
7/4/21	TRUE	2.99E-07	0.3
7/4/21	TRUE	3.29E-07	0.4
7/4/21	TRUE	3.59E-07	0.5
7/4/21	TRUE	3.92E-07	0.6
7/4/21	TRUE	4.32E-07	0.7
7/4/21	TRUE	4.79E-07	0.8
7/4/21	TRUE	5.57E-07	0.9
7/4/21	TRUE	6.41E-07	0.95
7/9/21	FALSE	2.39E-07	0.05
7/9/21	FALSE	2.97E-07	0.1
7/9/21	FALSE	3.65E-07	0.2
7/9/21	FALSE	4.09E-07	0.3
7/9/21	FALSE	4.49E-07	0.4
7/9/21	FALSE	4.91E-07	0.5
7/9/21	FALSE	5.40E-07	0.6
7/9/21	FALSE	6.04E-07	0.7
7/9/21	FALSE	7.01E-07	0.8
7/9/21	FALSE	8.53E-07	0.9
7/9/21	FALSE	9.99E-07	0.95
7/9/21	TRUE	1.96E-07	0.05
7/9/21	TRUE	2.20E-07	0.1
7/9/21	TRUE	2.52E-07	0.2
7/9/21	TRUE	2.77E-07	0.3
7/9/21	TRUE	3.05E-07	0.4
7/9/21	TRUE	3.32E-07	0.5
7/9/21	TRUE	3.62E-07	0.6
7/9/21	TRUE	3.98E-07	0.7
7/9/21	TRUE	4.42E-07	0.8
7/9/21	TRUE	5.17E-07	0.9
7/9/21	TRUE	5.98E-07	0.95
7/16/21	FALSE	2.05E-07	0.05
7/16/21	FALSE	2.64E-07	0.1
7/16/21	FALSE	3.30E-07	0.2
7/16/21	FALSE	3.74E-07	0.3
7/16/21	FALSE	4.11E-07	0.4
7/16/21	FALSE	4.52E-07	0.5
7/16/21	FALSE	5.03E-07	0.6
7/16/21	FALSE	5.71E-07	0.7
7/16/21	FALSE	6.77E-07	0.8
7/16/21	FALSE	8.76E-07	0.9
7/16/21	FALSE	1.09E-06	0.95
7/16/21	TRUE	1.65E-07	0.05
7/16/21	TRUE	1.86E-07	0.1
7/16/21	TRUE	2.15E-07	0.2
7/16/21	TRUE	2.40E-07	0.3
7/16/21	TRUE	2.64E-07	0.4
7/16/21	TRUE	2.88E-07	0.5
7/16/21	TRUE	3.13E-07	0.6
7/16/21	TRUE	3.45E-07	0.7
7/16/21	TRUE	3.87E-07	0.8
7/16/21	TRUE	4.56E-07	0.9
7/16/21	TRUE	5.27E-07	0.95
7/23/21	FALSE	1.73E-07	0.05
7/23/21	FALSE	2.30E-07	0.1
7/23/21	FALSE	2.91E-07	0.2
7/23/21	FALSE	3.33E-07	0.3
7/23/21	FALSE	3.70E-07	0.4
7/23/21	FALSE	4.12E-07	0.5
7/23/21	FALSE	4.66E-07	0.6
7/23/21	FALSE	5.39E-07	0.7
7/23/21	FALSE	6.65E-07	0.8
7/23/21	FALSE	9.45E-07	0.9
7/23/21	FALSE	1.26E-06	0.95
7/23/21	TRUE	1.34E-07	0.05
7/23/21	TRUE	1.53E-07	0.1
7/23/21	TRUE	1.77E-07	0.2
7/23/21	TRUE	1.99E-07	0.3
7/23/21	TRUE	2.20E-07	0.4
7/23/21	TRUE	2.40E-07	0.5
7/23/21	TRUE	2.63E-07	0.6
7/23/21	TRUE	2.89E-07	0.7
7/23/21	TRUE	3.28E-07	0.8
7/23/21	TRUE	4.06E-07	0.9
7/23/21	TRUE	4.86E-07	0.95
7/30/21	FALSE	1.50E-07	0.05
7/30/21	FALSE	1.99E-07	0.1
7/30/21	FALSE	2.55E-07	0.2
7/30/21	FALSE	2.98E-07	0.3
7/30/21	FALSE	3.37E-07	0.4
7/30/21	FALSE	3.85E-07	0.5
7/30/21	FALSE	4.44E-07	0.6
7/30/21	FALSE	5.26E-07	0.7
7/30/21	FALSE	7.07E-07	0.8
7/30/21	FALSE	1.10E-06	0.9
7/30/21	FALSE	1.51E-06	0.95
7/30/21	TRUE	1.07E-07	0.05
7/30/21	TRUE	1.25E-07	0.1
7/30/21	TRUE	1.46E-07	0.2
7/30/21	TRUE	1.64E-07	0.3
7/30/21	TRUE	1.83E-07	0.4
7/30/21	TRUE	2.00E-07	0.5
7/30/21	TRUE	2.22E-07	0.6
7/30/21	TRUE	2.46E-07	0.7
7/30/21	TRUE	2.85E-07	0.8
7/30/21	TRUE	3.69E-07	0.9
7/30/21	TRUE	4.71E-07	0.95
8/6/21	FALSE	1.31E-07	0.05
8/6/21	FALSE	1.76E-07	0.1
8/6/21	FALSE	2.27E-07	0.2
8/6/21	FALSE	2.72E-07	0.3
8/6/21	FALSE	3.19E-07	0.4
8/6/21	FALSE	3.74E-07	0.5
8/6/21	FALSE	4.45E-07	0.6
8/6/21	FALSE	5.59E-07	0.7
8/6/21	FALSE	8.20E-07	0.8
8/6/21	FALSE	1.38E-06	0.9
8/6/21	FALSE	1.93E-06	0.95
8/6/21	TRUE	8.65E-08	0.05
8/6/21	TRUE	1.01E-07	0.1
8/6/21	TRUE	1.22E-07	0.2
8/6/21	TRUE	1.37E-07	0.3
8/6/21	TRUE	1.54E-07	0.4
8/6/21	TRUE	1.71E-07	0.5
8/6/21	TRUE	1.91E-07	0.6
8/6/21	TRUE	2.17E-07	0.7
8/6/21	TRUE	2.61E-07	0.8
8/6/21	TRUE	3.66E-07	0.9
8/6/21	TRUE	4.93E-07	0.95
8/13/21	FALSE	1.11E-07	0.05
8/13/21	FALSE	1.61E-07	0.1
8/13/21	FALSE	2.10E-07	0.2
8/13/21	FALSE	2.60E-07	0.3
8/13/21	FALSE	3.14E-07	0.4
8/13/21	FALSE	3.86E-07	0.5
8/13/21	FALSE	4.75E-07	0.6
8/13/21	FALSE	6.56E-07	0.7
8/13/21	FALSE	1.04E-06	0.8
8/13/21	FALSE	1.88E-06	0.9
8/13/21	FALSE	2.67E-06	0.95
8/13/21	TRUE	6.99E-08	0.05
8/13/21	TRUE	8.20E-08	0.1
8/13/21	TRUE	1.02E-07	0.2
8/13/21	TRUE	1.17E-07	0.3
8/13/21	TRUE	1.33E-07	0.4
8/13/21	TRUE	1.50E-07	0.5
8/13/21	TRUE	1.72E-07	0.6
8/13/21	TRUE	2.01E-07	0.7
8/13/21	TRUE	2.54E-07	0.8
8/13/21	TRUE	3.95E-07	0.9
8/13/21	TRUE	5.77E-07	0.95
8/20/21	FALSE	9.46E-08	0.05
8/20/21	FALSE	1.48E-07	0.1
8/20/21	FALSE	2.01E-07	0.2
8/20/21	FALSE	2.61E-07	0.3
8/20/21	FALSE	3.27E-07	0.4
8/20/21	FALSE	4.28E-07	0.5
8/20/21	FALSE	5.58E-07	0.6
8/20/21	FALSE	8.33E-07	0.7
8/20/21	FALSE	1.41E-06	0.8
8/20/21	FALSE	2.59E-06	0.9
8/20/21	FALSE	3.60E-06	0.95
8/20/21	TRUE	5.68E-08	0.05
8/20/21	TRUE	6.71E-08	0.1
8/20/21	TRUE	8.55E-08	0.2
8/20/21	TRUE	1.02E-07	0.3
8/20/21	TRUE	1.18E-07	0.4
8/20/21	TRUE	1.37E-07	0.5
8/20/21	TRUE	1.60E-07	0.6
8/20/21	TRUE	1.96E-07	0.7
8/20/21	TRUE	2.76E-07	0.8
8/20/21	TRUE	4.78E-07	0.9
8/20/21	TRUE	7.17E-07	0.95
8/27/21	FALSE	8.24E-08	0.05
8/27/21	FALSE	1.33E-07	0.1
8/27/21	FALSE	1.97E-07	0.2
8/27/21	FALSE	2.68E-07	0.3
8/27/21	FALSE	3.57E-07	0.4
8/27/21	FALSE	4.96E-07	0.5
8/27/21	FALSE	6.92E-07	0.6
8/27/21	FALSE	1.11E-06	0.7
8/27/21	FALSE	1.96E-06	0.8
8/27/21	FALSE	3.36E-06	0.9
8/27/21	FALSE	4.38E-06	0.95
8/27/21	TRUE	4.65E-08	0.05
8/27/21	TRUE	5.53E-08	0.1
8/27/21	TRUE	7.20E-08	0.2
8/27/21	TRUE	8.84E-08	0.3
8/27/21	TRUE	1.08E-07	0.4
8/27/21	TRUE	1.32E-07	0.5
8/27/21	TRUE	1.59E-07	0.6
8/27/21	TRUE	2.01E-07	0.7
8/27/21	TRUE	3.18E-07	0.8
8/27/21	TRUE	6.09E-07	0.9
8/27/21	TRUE	9.33E-07	0.95
9/3/21	FALSE	7.35E-08	0.05
9/3/21	FALSE	1.18E-07	0.1
9/3/21	FALSE	1.99E-07	0.2
9/3/21	FALSE	2.82E-07	0.3
9/3/21	FALSE	4.04E-07	0.4
9/3/21	FALSE	5.97E-07	0.5
9/3/21	FALSE	8.83E-07	0.6
9/3/21	FALSE	1.50E-06	0.7
9/3/21	FALSE	2.58E-06	0.8
9/3/21	FALSE	3.90E-06	0.9
9/3/21	FALSE	4.89E-06	0.95
9/3/21	TRUE	3.82E-08	0.05
9/3/21	TRUE	4.61E-08	0.1
9/3/21	TRUE	6.12E-08	0.2
9/3/21	TRUE	7.84E-08	0.3
9/3/21	TRUE	1.02E-07	0.4
9/3/21	TRUE	1.32E-07	0.5
9/3/21	TRUE	1.65E-07	0.6
9/3/21	TRUE	2.22E-07	0.7
9/3/21	TRUE	3.95E-07	0.8
9/3/21	TRUE	8.05E-07	0.9
9/3/21	TRUE	1.24E-06	0.95
9/10/21	FALSE	6.60E-08	0.05
9/10/21	FALSE	1.07E-07	0.1
9/10/21	FALSE	1.99E-07	0.2
9/10/21	FALSE	3.04E-07	0.3
9/10/21	FALSE	4.67E-07	0.4
9/10/21	FALSE	7.22E-07	0.5
9/10/21	FALSE	1.13E-06	0.6
9/10/21	FALSE	1.98E-06	0.7
9/10/21	FALSE	3.06E-06	0.8
9/10/21	FALSE	4.19E-06	0.9
9/10/21	FALSE	5.09E-06	0.95
9/10/21	TRUE	3.15E-08	0.05
9/10/21	TRUE	3.83E-08	0.1
9/10/21	TRUE	5.29E-08	0.2
9/10/21	TRUE	7.10E-08	0.3
9/10/21	TRUE	9.90E-08	0.4
9/10/21	TRUE	1.36E-07	0.5
9/10/21	TRUE	1.80E-07	0.6
9/10/21	TRUE	2.59E-07	0.7
9/10/21	TRUE	4.98E-07	0.8
9/10/21	TRUE	1.06E-06	0.9
9/10/21	TRUE	1.67E-06	0.95
9/17/21	FALSE	6.05E-08	0.05
9/17/21	FALSE	9.66E-08	0.1
9/17/21	FALSE	1.98E-07	0.2
9/17/21	FALSE	3.34E-07	0.3
9/17/21	FALSE	5.43E-07	0.4
9/17/21	FALSE	8.79E-07	0.5
9/17/21	FALSE	1.44E-06	0.6
9/17/21	FALSE	2.38E-06	0.7
9/17/21	FALSE	3.23E-06	0.8
9/17/21	FALSE	4.22E-06	0.9
9/17/21	FALSE	4.94E-06	0.95
9/17/21	TRUE	2.57E-08	0.05
9/17/21	TRUE	3.22E-08	0.1
9/17/21	TRUE	4.58E-08	0.2
9/17/21	TRUE	6.53E-08	0.3
9/17/21	TRUE	9.79E-08	0.4
9/17/21	TRUE	1.44E-07	0.5
9/17/21	TRUE	2.05E-07	0.6
9/17/21	TRUE	3.20E-07	0.7
9/17/21	TRUE	6.32E-07	0.8
9/17/21	TRUE	1.38E-06	0.9
9/17/21	TRUE	2.17E-06	0.95
9/24/21	FALSE	5.48E-08	0.05
9/24/21	FALSE	8.87E-08	0.1
9/24/21	FALSE	1.95E-07	0.2
9/24/21	FALSE	3.65E-07	0.3
9/24/21	FALSE	6.21E-07	0.4
9/24/21	FALSE	1.05E-06	0.5
9/24/21	FALSE	1.77E-06	0.6
9/24/21	FALSE	2.53E-06	0.7
9/24/21	FALSE	3.18E-06	0.8
9/24/21	FALSE	4.01E-06	0.9
9/24/21	FALSE	4.51E-06	0.95
9/24/21	TRUE	2.14E-08	0.05
9/24/21	TRUE	2.70E-08	0.1
9/24/21	TRUE	3.97E-08	0.2
9/24/21	TRUE	6.09E-08	0.3
9/24/21	TRUE	9.96E-08	0.4
9/24/21	TRUE	1.59E-07	0.5
9/24/21	TRUE	2.37E-07	0.6
9/24/21	TRUE	3.98E-07	0.7
9/24/21	TRUE	8.14E-07	0.8
9/24/21	TRUE	1.77E-06	0.9
9/24/21	TRUE	2.50E-06	0.95
10/1/21	FALSE	4.98E-08	0.05
10/1/21	FALSE	8.06E-08	0.1
10/1/21	FALSE	1.89E-07	0.2
10/1/21	FALSE	4.03E-07	0.3
10/1/21	FALSE	7.00E-07	0.4
10/1/21	FALSE	1.24E-06	0.5
10/1/21	FALSE	1.94E-06	0.6
10/1/21	FALSE	2.47E-06	0.7
10/1/21	FALSE	2.99E-06	0.8
10/1/21	FALSE	3.60E-06	0.9
10/1/21	FALSE	4.07E-06	0.95
10/1/21	TRUE	1.75E-08	0.05
10/1/21	TRUE	2.26E-08	0.1
10/1/21	TRUE	3.55E-08	0.2
10/1/21	TRUE	5.79E-08	0.3
10/1/21	TRUE	1.02E-07	0.4
10/1/21	TRUE	1.78E-07	0.5
10/1/21	TRUE	2.76E-07	0.6
10/1/21	TRUE	4.98E-07	0.7
10/1/21	TRUE	1.04E-06	0.8
10/1/21	TRUE	2.05E-06	0.9
10/1/21	TRUE	2.85E-06	0.95
10/8/21	FALSE	4.39E-08	0.05
10/8/21	FALSE	7.29E-08	0.1
10/8/21	FALSE	1.83E-07	0.2
10/8/21	FALSE	4.30E-07	0.3
10/8/21	FALSE	7.73E-07	0.4
10/8/21	FALSE	1.37E-06	0.5
10/8/21	FALSE	1.89E-06	0.6
10/8/21	FALSE	2.28E-06	0.7
10/8/21	FALSE	2.70E-06	0.8
10/8/21	FALSE	3.23E-06	0.9
10/8/21	FALSE	3.82E-06	0.95
10/8/21	TRUE	1.45E-08	0.05
10/8/21	TRUE	1.92E-08	0.1
10/8/21	TRUE	3.16E-08	0.2
10/8/21	TRUE	5.53E-08	0.3
10/8/21	TRUE	1.07E-07	0.4
10/8/21	TRUE	1.99E-07	0.5
10/8/21	TRUE	3.28E-07	0.6
10/8/21	TRUE	6.25E-07	0.7
10/8/21	TRUE	1.30E-06	0.8
10/8/21	TRUE	2.28E-06	0.9
10/8/21	TRUE	3.13E-06	0.95
10/15/21	FALSE	3.89E-08	0.05
10/15/21	FALSE	6.72E-08	0.1
10/15/21	FALSE	1.77E-07	0.2
10/15/21	FALSE	4.45E-07	0.3
10/15/21	FALSE	8.46E-07	0.4
10/15/21	FALSE	1.33E-06	0.5
10/15/21	FALSE	1.72E-06	0.6
10/15/21	FALSE	2.02E-06	0.7
10/15/21	FALSE	2.37E-06	0.8
10/15/21	FALSE	3.03E-06	0.9
10/15/21	FALSE	3.65E-06	0.95
10/15/21	TRUE	1.20E-08	0.05
10/15/21	TRUE	1.63E-08	0.1
10/15/21	TRUE	2.81E-08	0.2
10/15/21	TRUE	5.36E-08	0.3
10/15/21	TRUE	1.12E-07	0.4
10/15/21	TRUE	2.28E-07	0.5
10/15/21	TRUE	3.98E-07	0.6
10/15/21	TRUE	7.73E-07	0.7
10/15/21	TRUE	1.46E-06	0.8
10/15/21	TRUE	2.47E-06	0.9
10/15/21	TRUE	3.22E-06	0.95
10/22/21	FALSE	3.46E-08	0.05
10/22/21	FALSE	6.12E-08	0.1
10/22/21	FALSE	1.70E-07	0.2
10/22/21	FALSE	4.59E-07	0.3
10/22/21	FALSE	8.68E-07	0.4
10/22/21	FALSE	1.22E-06	0.5
10/22/21	FALSE	1.50E-06	0.6
10/22/21	FALSE	1.74E-06	0.7
10/22/21	FALSE	2.11E-06	0.8
10/22/21	FALSE	2.81E-06	0.9
10/22/21	FALSE	3.48E-06	0.95
10/22/21	TRUE	1.00E-08	0.05
10/22/21	TRUE	1.40E-08	0.1
10/22/21	TRUE	2.53E-08	0.2
10/22/21	TRUE	5.29E-08	0.3
10/22/21	TRUE	1.21E-07	0.4
10/22/21	TRUE	2.60E-07	0.5
10/22/21	TRUE	4.83E-07	0.6
10/22/21	TRUE	9.49E-07	0.7
10/22/21	TRUE	1.59E-06	0.8
10/22/21	TRUE	2.57E-06	0.9
10/22/21	TRUE	3.17E-06	0.95
10/29/21	FALSE	3.06E-08	0.05
10/29/21	FALSE	5.59E-08	0.1
10/29/21	FALSE	1.65E-07	0.2
10/29/21	FALSE	4.58E-07	0.3
10/29/21	FALSE	8.18E-07	0.4
10/29/21	FALSE	1.08E-06	0.5
10/29/21	FALSE	1.29E-06	0.6
10/29/21	FALSE	1.53E-06	0.7
10/29/21	FALSE	1.92E-06	0.8
10/29/21	FALSE	2.64E-06	0.9
10/29/21	FALSE	3.27E-06	0.95
10/29/21	TRUE	8.35E-09	0.05
10/29/21	TRUE	1.20E-08	0.1
10/29/21	TRUE	2.34E-08	0.2
10/29/21	TRUE	5.28E-08	0.3
10/29/21	TRUE	1.30E-07	0.4
10/29/21	TRUE	3.01E-07	0.5
10/29/21	TRUE	5.78E-07	0.6
10/29/21	TRUE	1.05E-06	0.7
10/29/21	TRUE	1.69E-06	0.8
10/29/21	TRUE	2.49E-06	0.9
10/29/21	TRUE	3.09E-06	0.95
11/5/21	FALSE	2.66E-08	0.05
11/5/21	FALSE	5.07E-08	0.1
11/5/21	FALSE	1.55E-07	0.2
11/5/21	FALSE	4.56E-07	0.3
11/5/21	FALSE	7.29E-07	0.4
11/5/21	FALSE	9.46E-07	0.5
11/5/21	FALSE	1.14E-06	0.6
11/5/21	FALSE	1.39E-06	0.7
11/5/21	FALSE	1.78E-06	0.8
11/5/21	FALSE	2.42E-06	0.9
11/5/21	FALSE	3.00E-06	0.95
11/5/21	TRUE	6.92E-09	0.05
11/5/21	TRUE	1.02E-08	0.1
11/5/21	TRUE	2.13E-08	0.2
11/5/21	TRUE	5.24E-08	0.3
11/5/21	TRUE	1.40E-07	0.4
11/5/21	TRUE	3.49E-07	0.5
11/5/21	TRUE	6.69E-07	0.6
11/5/21	TRUE	1.13E-06	0.7
11/5/21	TRUE	1.74E-06	0.8
11/5/21	TRUE	2.47E-06	0.9
11/5/21	TRUE	2.96E-06	0.95
11/12/21	FALSE	2.29E-08	0.05
11/12/21	FALSE	4.56E-08	0.1
11/12/21	FALSE	1.48E-07	0.2
11/12/21	FALSE	4.27E-07	0.3
11/12/21	FALSE	6.32E-07	0.4
11/12/21	FALSE	8.18E-07	0.5
11/12/21	FALSE	1.05E-06	0.6
11/12/21	FALSE	1.28E-06	0.7
11/12/21	FALSE	1.62E-06	0.8
11/12/21	FALSE	2.22E-06	0.9
11/12/21	FALSE	2.73E-06	0.95
11/12/21	TRUE	5.72E-09	0.05
11/12/21	TRUE	8.75E-09	0.1
11/12/21	TRUE	1.93E-08	0.2
11/12/21	TRUE	5.32E-08	0.3
11/12/21	TRUE	1.49E-07	0.4
11/12/21	TRUE	3.98E-07	0.5
11/12/21	TRUE	7.42E-07	0.6
11/12/21	TRUE	1.18E-06	0.7
11/12/21	TRUE	1.71E-06	0.8
11/12/21	TRUE	2.37E-06	0.9
11/12/21	TRUE	2.77E-06	0.95
11/19/21	FALSE	1.97E-08	0.05
11/19/21	FALSE	4.06E-08	0.1
11/19/21	FALSE	1.42E-07	0.2
11/19/21	FALSE	3.92E-07	0.3
11/19/21	FALSE	5.53E-07	0.4
11/19/21	FALSE	7.35E-07	0.5
11/19/21	FALSE	9.81E-07	0.6
11/19/21	FALSE	1.20E-06	0.7
11/19/21	FALSE	1.49E-06	0.8
11/19/21	FALSE	2.03E-06	0.9
11/19/21	FALSE	2.45E-06	0.95
11/19/21	TRUE	4.81E-09	0.05
11/19/21	TRUE	7.57E-09	0.1
11/19/21	TRUE	1.79E-08	0.2
11/19/21	TRUE	5.37E-08	0.3
11/19/21	TRUE	1.63E-07	0.4
11/19/21	TRUE	4.54E-07	0.5
11/19/21	TRUE	7.88E-07	0.6
11/19/21	TRUE	1.20E-06	0.7
11/19/21	TRUE	1.65E-06	0.8
11/19/21	TRUE	2.24E-06	0.9
11/19/21	TRUE	2.58E-06	0.95
11/26/21	FALSE	1.71E-08	0.05
11/26/21	FALSE	3.65E-08	0.1
11/26/21	FALSE	1.35E-07	0.2
11/26/21	FALSE	3.54E-07	0.3
11/26/21	FALSE	4.82E-07	0.4
11/26/21	FALSE	6.75E-07	0.5
11/26/21	FALSE	9.41E-07	0.6
11/26/21	FALSE	1.16E-06	0.7
11/26/21	FALSE	1.37E-06	0.8
11/26/21	FALSE	1.84E-06	0.9
11/26/21	FALSE	2.20E-06	0.95
11/26/21	TRUE	4.06E-09	0.05
11/26/21	TRUE	6.52E-09	0.1
11/26/21	TRUE	1.66E-08	0.2
11/26/21	TRUE	5.42E-08	0.3
11/26/21	TRUE	1.77E-07	0.4
11/26/21	TRUE	5.07E-07	0.5
11/26/21	TRUE	8.23E-07	0.6
11/26/21	TRUE	1.18E-06	0.7
11/26/21	TRUE	1.58E-06	0.8
11/26/21	TRUE	2.12E-06	0.9
11/26/21	TRUE	2.44E-06	0.95
12/3/21	FALSE	1.49E-08	0.05
12/3/21	FALSE	3.31E-08	0.1
12/3/21	FALSE	1.27E-07	0.2
12/3/21	FALSE	3.13E-07	0.3
12/3/21	FALSE	4.30E-07	0.4
12/3/21	FALSE	6.30E-07	0.5
12/3/21	FALSE	9.21E-07	0.6
12/3/21	FALSE	1.12E-06	0.7
12/3/21	FALSE	1.30E-06	0.8
12/3/21	FALSE	1.67E-06	0.9
12/3/21	FALSE	2.01E-06	0.95
12/3/21	TRUE	3.40E-09	0.05
12/3/21	TRUE	5.59E-09	0.1
12/3/21	TRUE	1.53E-08	0.2
12/3/21	TRUE	5.59E-08	0.3
12/3/21	TRUE	1.92E-07	0.4
12/3/21	TRUE	5.43E-07	0.5
12/3/21	TRUE	8.59E-07	0.6
12/3/21	TRUE	1.14E-06	0.7
12/3/21	TRUE	1.49E-06	0.8
12/3/21	TRUE	1.98E-06	0.9
12/3/21	TRUE	2.33E-06	0.95
12/10/21	FALSE	1.29E-08	0.05
12/10/21	FALSE	3.00E-08	0.1
12/10/21	FALSE	1.21E-07	0.2
12/10/21	FALSE	2.73E-07	0.3
12/10/21	FALSE	3.93E-07	0.4
12/10/21	FALSE	6.13E-07	0.5
12/10/21	FALSE	9.06E-07	0.6
12/10/21	FALSE	1.09E-06	0.7
12/10/21	FALSE	1.24E-06	0.8
12/10/21	FALSE	1.55E-06	0.9
12/10/21	FALSE	1.86E-06	0.95
12/10/21	TRUE	2.86E-09	0.05
12/10/21	TRUE	4.82E-09	0.1
12/10/21	TRUE	1.44E-08	0.2
12/10/21	TRUE	5.68E-08	0.3
12/10/21	TRUE	2.07E-07	0.4
12/10/21	TRUE	5.63E-07	0.5
12/10/21	TRUE	8.88E-07	0.6
12/10/21	TRUE	1.10E-06	0.7
12/10/21	TRUE	1.42E-06	0.8
12/10/21	TRUE	1.88E-06	0.9
12/10/21	TRUE	2.21E-06	0.95
12/17/21	FALSE	1.11E-08	0.05
12/17/21	FALSE	2.69E-08	0.1
12/17/21	FALSE	1.15E-07	0.2
12/17/21	FALSE	2.39E-07	0.3
12/17/21	FALSE	3.64E-07	0.4
12/17/21	FALSE	5.97E-07	0.5
12/17/21	FALSE	9.00E-07	0.6
12/17/21	FALSE	1.07E-06	0.7
12/17/21	FALSE	1.21E-06	0.8
12/17/21	FALSE	1.50E-06	0.9
12/17/21	FALSE	1.78E-06	0.95
12/17/21	TRUE	2.43E-09	0.05
12/17/21	TRUE	4.20E-09	0.1
12/17/21	TRUE	1.36E-08	0.2
12/17/21	TRUE	5.84E-08	0.3
12/17/21	TRUE	2.28E-07	0.4
12/17/21	TRUE	5.89E-07	0.5
12/17/21	TRUE	8.87E-07	0.6
12/17/21	TRUE	1.07E-06	0.7
12/17/21	TRUE	1.33E-06	0.8
12/17/21	TRUE	1.80E-06	0.9
12/17/21	TRUE	2.10E-06	0.95
12/24/21	FALSE	9.68E-09	0.05
12/24/21	FALSE	2.37E-08	0.1
12/24/21	FALSE	1.07E-07	0.2
12/24/21	FALSE	2.10E-07	0.3
12/24/21	FALSE	3.38E-07	0.4
12/24/21	FALSE	5.93E-07	0.5
12/24/21	FALSE	8.92E-07	0.6
12/24/21	FALSE	1.05E-06	0.7
12/24/21	FALSE	1.20E-06	0.8
12/24/21	FALSE	1.48E-06	0.9
12/24/21	FALSE	1.74E-06	0.95
12/24/21	TRUE	2.07E-09	0.05
12/24/21	TRUE	3.59E-09	0.1
12/24/21	TRUE	1.25E-08	0.2
12/24/21	TRUE	5.87E-08	0.3
12/24/21	TRUE	2.49E-07	0.4
12/24/21	TRUE	6.17E-07	0.5
12/24/21	TRUE	8.85E-07	0.6
12/24/21	TRUE	1.06E-06	0.7
12/24/21	TRUE	1.28E-06	0.8
12/24/21	TRUE	1.70E-06	0.9
12/24/21	TRUE	2.00E-06	0.95
12/31/21	FALSE	8.44E-09	0.05
12/31/21	FALSE	2.10E-08	0.1
12/31/21	FALSE	9.78E-08	0.2
12/31/21	FALSE	1.87E-07	0.3
12/31/21	FALSE	3.17E-07	0.4
12/31/21	FALSE	5.91E-07	0.5
12/31/21	FALSE	8.85E-07	0.6
12/31/21	FALSE	1.04E-06	0.7
12/31/21	FALSE	1.20E-06	0.8
12/31/21	FALSE	1.49E-06	0.9
12/31/21	FALSE	1.76E-06	0.95
12/31/21	TRUE	1.72E-09	0.05
12/31/21	TRUE	3.11E-09	0.1
12/31/21	TRUE	1.16E-08	0.2
12/31/21	TRUE	5.93E-08	0.3
12/31/21	TRUE	2.66E-07	0.4
12/31/21	TRUE	6.33E-07	0.5
12/31/21	TRUE	8.84E-07	0.6
12/31/21	TRUE	1.05E-06	0.7
12/31/21	TRUE	1.25E-06	0.8
12/31/21	TRUE	1.63E-06	0.9
12/31/21	TRUE	1.90E-06	0.95
1/7/22	FALSE	7.25E-09	0.05
1/7/22	FALSE	1.84E-08	0.1
1/7/22	FALSE	8.80E-08	0.2
1/7/22	FALSE	1.67E-07	0.3
1/7/22	FALSE	3.01E-07	0.4
1/7/22	FALSE	5.87E-07	0.5
1/7/22	FALSE	8.74E-07	0.6
1/7/22	FALSE	1.04E-06	0.7
1/7/22	FALSE	1.20E-06	0.8
1/7/22	FALSE	1.52E-06	0.9
1/7/22	FALSE	1.80E-06	0.95
1/7/22	TRUE	1.45E-09	0.05
1/7/22	TRUE	2.67E-09	0.1
1/7/22	TRUE	1.08E-08	0.2
1/7/22	TRUE	6.15E-08	0.3
1/7/22	TRUE	2.85E-07	0.4
1/7/22	TRUE	6.53E-07	0.5
1/7/22	TRUE	8.88E-07	0.6
1/7/22	TRUE	1.04E-06	0.7
1/7/22	TRUE	1.23E-06	0.8
1/7/22	TRUE	1.57E-06	0.9
1/7/22	TRUE	1.82E-06	0.95
1/14/22	FALSE	6.26E-09	0.05
1/14/22	FALSE	1.61E-08	0.1
1/14/22	FALSE	8.02E-08	0.2
1/14/22	FALSE	1.51E-07	0.3
1/14/22	FALSE	2.90E-07	0.4
1/14/22	FALSE	5.77E-07	0.5
1/14/22	FALSE	8.70E-07	0.6
1/14/22	FALSE	1.04E-06	0.7
1/14/22	FALSE	1.21E-06	0.8
1/14/22	FALSE	1.55E-06	0.9
1/14/22	FALSE	1.82E-06	0.95
1/14/22	TRUE	1.23E-09	0.05
1/14/22	TRUE	2.32E-09	0.1
1/14/22	TRUE	1.01E-08	0.2
1/14/22	TRUE	6.33E-08	0.3
1/14/22	TRUE	3.06E-07	0.4
1/14/22	TRUE	6.64E-07	0.5
1/14/22	TRUE	8.94E-07	0.6
1/14/22	TRUE	1.05E-06	0.7
1/14/22	TRUE	1.23E-06	0.8
1/14/22	TRUE	1.53E-06	0.9
1/14/22	TRUE	1.79E-06	0.95
1/21/22	FALSE	5.31E-09	0.05
1/21/22	FALSE	1.42E-08	0.1
1/21/22	FALSE	7.25E-08	0.2
1/21/22	FALSE	1.38E-07	0.3
1/21/22	FALSE	2.81E-07	0.4
1/21/22	FALSE	5.74E-07	0.5
1/21/22	FALSE	8.64E-07	0.6
1/21/22	FALSE	1.05E-06	0.7
1/21/22	FALSE	1.24E-06	0.8
1/21/22	FALSE	1.57E-06	0.9
1/21/22	FALSE	1.82E-06	0.95
1/21/22	TRUE	1.03E-09	0.05
1/21/22	TRUE	2.00E-09	0.1
1/21/22	TRUE	9.46E-09	0.2
1/21/22	TRUE	6.51E-08	0.3
1/21/22	TRUE	3.18E-07	0.4
1/21/22	TRUE	6.65E-07	0.5
1/21/22	TRUE	8.93E-07	0.6
1/21/22	TRUE	1.05E-06	0.7
1/21/22	TRUE	1.22E-06	0.8
1/21/22	TRUE	1.52E-06	0.9
1/21/22	TRUE	1.77E-06	0.95
1/28/22	FALSE	4.62E-09	0.05
1/28/22	FALSE	1.26E-08	0.1
1/28/22	FALSE	6.47E-08	0.2
1/28/22	FALSE	1.25E-07	0.3
1/28/22	FALSE	2.72E-07	0.4
1/28/22	FALSE	5.65E-07	0.5
1/28/22	FALSE	8.66E-07	0.6
1/28/22	FALSE	1.05E-06	0.7
1/28/22	FALSE	1.25E-06	0.8
1/28/22	FALSE	1.58E-06	0.9
1/28/22	FALSE	1.80E-06	0.95
1/28/22	TRUE	8.60E-10	0.05
1/28/22	TRUE	1.71E-09	0.1
1/28/22	TRUE	8.87E-09	0.2
1/28/22	TRUE	6.59E-08	0.3
1/28/22	TRUE	3.31E-07	0.4
1/28/22	TRUE	6.65E-07	0.5
1/28/22	TRUE	8.97E-07	0.6
1/28/22	TRUE	1.06E-06	0.7
1/28/22	TRUE	1.21E-06	0.8
1/28/22	TRUE	1.53E-06	0.9
1/28/22	TRUE	1.76E-06	0.95

Source: Authors' calculations

In scenarios where the July 4 target wasn't met, COVID-19 surges comparable to those of summer 2020—before the vaccine was distributed—were three times more likely to occur. Occasionally these surges happened when one might expect them, in the weeks after social mixing at Independence Day picnics, barbecues, and baseball games. More often, however, the virus circulated at manageable levels during the warm months, then reemerged more brutally in the fall and winter by taking advantage of dryer air and indoor socializing.

Given the opportunity, the coronavirus will do what it has done repeatedly in the United States and abroad: spread quietly, lulling us into a false sense of security. By the time a surge of cases is detected, there's not enough time to get the unvaccinated fully immunized and halt the outbreak. With a two-shot regimen, it takes a minimum of five weeks for an individual to be fully protected. This could force local or state officials to make the same painful trade-offs between health and the economy that they faced in 2020. In places with the lowest vaccination rates, surges could even force the re-closure of schools or businesses.

There are, of course, no certainties in the pandemic. In some of our model's scenarios, there are significant surges even if Biden's target is met. In others, there are few deaths despite low vaccination levels. There are two reasons for these variations. First, other uncertainties—such as more-transmissible variants or the effectiveness of vaccines at preventing transmission—can dramatically alter the course of the pandemic. Second, the July 4 target gives us just a snapshot, not a full characterization of an ongoing vaccination effort. The United States could meet the July target only to have progress stall; an April Kaiser Family Foundation survey found 19 percent of Americans said they won't get the shot, or will only if it required by jobs or their school, and another 15 percent were playing wait-and-see. The United States could miss the July 4 goal but slowly vaccinate more than 90 percent of Americans by November as hesitancy wanes.

Accounting for these uncertainties, we still anticipate that vaccinating 160 million American adults by July 4 could save tens of thousands of American lives.

It's also vital to consider disparities between states. As of early May, some states have twice the vaccination rates of others, and this disparity is even starker when comparing individual communities. It is not implausible that in July some states will be nearing 75 percent of adults fully vaccinated, while others will only have 40 percent. If those patterns hold, winter could bring two different Americas, one ravaged by fresh COVID-19 outbreaks and the other safely making up for lost time with family and friends.

State/Territory/Federal Entity	Percent of Adults Fully Vaccinated
Alaska	45
Alabama	31.9
Arkansas	33.9
American Samoa	37.7
Arizona	38.6
Bureau of Prisons	0
California	43.5
Colorado	46.8
Connecticut	54
District of Columbia	43.5
Dept of Defense	0
Delaware	44.7
Florida	39.8
Federated States of Micronesia	18.8
Georgia	34.1
Guam	45.8
Hawaii	49.2
Iowa	46.8
Idaho	36.3
Indian Health Svc	0
Illinois	41.7
Indiana	37.4
Kansas	42.7
Kentucky	41.8
Louisiana	34.8
Massachusetts	52
Maryland	48.5
Maine	54.5
Marshall Islands	26.4
Michigan	43.8
Minnesota	47.8
Missouri	37.3
Northern Mariana Islands	42.1
Mississippi	30.4
Montana	41.6
North Carolina	39.2
North Dakota	41.7
Nebraska	46.7
New Hampshire	40
New Jersey	50.4
New Mexico	51
Nevada	38.8
New York State	48.3
Ohio	43.4
Oklahoma	38.1
Oregon	43.7
Pennsylvania	44.1
Puerto Rico	35.5
Rhode Island	50.8
Republic of Palau	59.7
South Carolina	36.2
South Dakota	48.6
Tennessee	33.8
Texas	38
Utah	35.8
Virginia	46.1
Veterans Health	0
Virgin Islands	32.5
Vermont	51.3
Washington	45.6
Wisconsin	47.5
West Virginia	37.3
Wyoming	35.5

Source: CDC COVID Data Tracker

States are doing their utmost to overcome vaccine hesitancy and remove barriers to vaccination. At the same time, they should plan for the worst—which might mean delaying reopening if vaccination targets are not met. Most states, however, are not factoring vaccination levels into their reopening tiers, which may be a mistake. Our research suggests that the best reopening strategies—the ones that minimize deaths and create the least likelihood of a future shutdown—begin cautiously and slacken the rules as more people become vaccinated.

Vaccines can provide a safe path out of the pandemic, but only if states hit targets like Biden's. The vaccination campaign has been a success so far. But if it flags, policymakers need to remain vigilant for surges coming in the fall and consider tempering their reopening based on their progress vaccinating their communities.

---

Lawrence Baker is an assistant policy researcher at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation and a Ph.D. candidate at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. His research focuses on evaluating public health interventions. Pedro Nascimento de Lima is an assistant policy researcher at RAND and a Ph.D. candidate at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. His research sits at the intersection of simulation modeling, policy analysis, and decisionmaking under deep uncertainty. Jeanne Ringel is a senior economist and director of the Health Care Access and Delivery Program at RAND and a core faculty member at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. Her research addresses national health security and vaccine and immunization policy. Raffaele Vardavas is a mathematician at RAND and a member of the Pardee RAND Graduate School faculty. His expertise is primarily in constructing and analyzing epidemic models of infectious diseases.