Effect of Plain Cigarette Packaging on Point-of-Sale Purchasing Behavior Among Young Adults Who Smoke

Steven C. Martino, Michael S. Dunbar, Claude Messan Setodji, Desmond Jenson, Maggie Hieber, William G. Shadel

ResearchPosted on rand.org May 11, 2026Published in: Health Psychology (2026). DOI: 10.1037/hea0001601

Objective

This experiment evaluated how full versus partial plain cigarette packaging, compared with fully branded packaging, affects young adult smokers’ cigarette purchasing and motivation to quit smoking in a simulated retail point-of-sale environment.

Method

The experiment took place in the RAND StoreLab, a life-sized replica of a convenience store. Smokers (N = 433) aged 21–34 years were randomly assigned to shop in one of three store conditions: (a) a status quo condition, featuring a typical U.S. tobacco power wall; (b) a full coverage condition, where cigarette packages were fully standardized in a uniform brown-green color; or (c) a half coverage condition, where only the top half of packages were standardized. Cigarette purchases were tracked, and participants completed measures of motivation to quit smoking pre- and postshopping. Logistic regression was used to examine condition effects on these outcomes.

Results

Participants in the full coverage condition were significantly less likely to purchase cigarettes than those in the status quo condition, adjusted OR = 0.54, p = .04. In contrast, the half coverage condition had no effect on cigarette purchasing, adjusted OR = 0.96, p = .88. Neither the full coverage nor the half coverage condition significantly affected motivation to quit smoking, ps = .53 and .64, respectively.

Conclusions

This study provides novel experimental evidence in support of full plain packaging as a means to further reduce cigarette purchasing in the United States. The lack of an effect of partial plain packaging suggests that this option may not be a sufficient means of regulation.

Topics

Document Details

  • Availability: Non-RAND
  • Year: 2026
  • Pages: 32
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/pubs
  • Document Number: EP-71198

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