Steps for Effectively Addressing State and Local Pension Crises
A Prototype Road Map for Stakeholders
Research SummaryPublished Jun 30, 2023
A Prototype Road Map for Stakeholders
Research SummaryPublished Jun 30, 2023
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Public-sector pension underfunding is an urgent—and complicated—challenge facing many states, counties, and municipalities. It can have implications for the financial health of the government and can affect the retirement security of public- sector workers, the ability to recruit and retain workers for public service, the provision of public services if pension contributions crowd out other services, and state and local tax rates. There is not a single national pension crisis: There are many small crises throughout the United States, reflecting local circumstance, history, and constraints, including legacy pension costs.
Although the Great Recession led to a broad decrease in pension funding, the period since 2012 has revealed that many pension systems have continued to see their ability to cover their obligations decline despite a decade of sustained economic and stock market growth preceding the COVID-19 pandemic. The realization that pensions systems are consistently and substantially underfunded after more than a decade of reforms is telling. It is a cautionary sign to stakeholders—including policymakers, workers, retirees, employers, and taxpayers—about the piecemeal and unsystematic approaches of past reforms. Although underfunding is of course a financial issue, the actions that policymakers take to address underfunding may have real consequences in terms of the retirement security of public-sector workers, the recruitment and retention of these workers, tax rates, and the provision of other public services by the local government.
To help stakeholders understand what drives these crises and what solutions exist, RAND Corporation researchers developed a prototype road map (i.e., framework) for reform.
This comprehensive approach includes an evaluation of the literature, available tools and data, and knowledge from subject-matter experts. The road map takes a holistic perspective that recognizes the array of stakeholders, their incentives and constraints, and the time horizons affecting decisionmaking; the root causes that can lead to bad governance and practices; the range of alternative reform options and their effects not just on pension financing but on other outcomes of interest, such the effects on employee retirement savings; and workforce demographics. An important element of the road map is that it provides a menu of options to achieve feasible and effective reforms that are informed by rigorous research and analysis. These options include not just increasing pension contributions, increasing taxes, or other traditional policy options but also such options as changing governance, actuarial assumptions, and pension design.
The road map is intended to help guide state and local pension policymakers in their decisionmaking, as well as to help stakeholders who want to better understand the dimensions of public-sector pension reform and policy options.
The elements of the road map are informed by the insights and findings of a companion report that summarizes research findings from the literature, available tools, and data, as well as discussions with subject-matter experts.[1] The road map described here is a prototype because there are still gaps in understanding of the effectiveness of reforms on underfunding and other outcomes, such as retirement security, limiting the ability to identify trade-offs between reform options.
The road map consists of the five elements shown in Figure 1.
Define Issues
Understand Causes
Identify Goals
Find Effective Paths
Implement Reforms
Numerous groups and entities have a stake or interest in public-sector pensions or have oversight, financial, or accounting roles.
Taxpayers, voters, and residents are affected by public pensions if taxes are increased to finance pension obligations or if public services are cut due to pension financing crowding out other services (see Figure 2).
As the pension plan sponsor, the state legislature, county commission, or city council establishes the retirement system and determines how benefits are funded and administered. The relevant chief executive has the authority to approve changes proposed by the legislature, has budget proposal authority, and can approve members of the retirement system board.
Pension plan beneficiaries, including current retirees and current and future employees, will be affected by pension plan design and type and the generosity of benefits, which can then affect retirement security and alter employees' recruitment and retention decisions.
Public employers usually must contribute to their employee pension systems, potentially crowding out other benefits, such as salary increases, and plan generosity and design can affect the recruitment and retention of employees, thereby affecting the experience mix and quality of the employer workforce.
Public employees are typically represented by employee unions that advocate for improved benefits, including pension benefits. Other interest groups include local businesses that might benefit from pension fund investments and voter groups or groups representing residents who seek to prevent elected officials from voting for increased taxes or cuts in services.
Plan managers and board members handle the practical aspects of governance, such as oversight, management, and investment policies. The board ensures that the retirement system is fulfilling its statuary role and that it operates in the sole interest of the members and beneficiaries. The board also selects actuarial methods and assumptions and is responsible for how the pension fund is invested.
Pension systems rely on an array of external technical experts—for example, actuaries and oversight boards. In some states, the investment decisions of the pension fund are performed by a state agency that is external to the pension system.
Pension systems that experience substantial and persistent underfunding often exhibit an array of issues with their broader financial situation, workforce, and public services that complicate addressing the funding crisis. A foundational step for successful, long-term reform is understanding the scope and scale of the pension crisis and the circumstances surrounding it that may inform or possibly complicate the effectiveness of reforms.
A pension crisis is typically defined in terms of funding shortfalls, low funding ratios, and benefit generosity—if pension promises made to employees are not fully funded, it creates an unfunded liability. In some cases, employers may have sufficient funding flows to cover the liabilities associated with the current or future workforce but have insufficient funding to cover the costs of retirement benefits for current retirees who are eligible for benefits under discontinued (i.e., legacy) pension plans.
Pension crises are multifaceted and can be revealed in less obvious ways than funding shortfalls:
The implication is that even states and municipalities with apparently healthy pension funding ratios can have unsustainable pension systems if the system results in these other concerns.
Current and future public-sector retirees are not the only group at risk from pension crises—residents, taxpayers, and other stakeholders may face reduced public services or higher taxes:
Pension crises do not occur in a vacuum but will be affected by relevant governance structures and accounting practices and by which reforms are legally permitted. Because of the flexibilities and leniencies given to states and localities compared with those that govern the private sector, the institutional framework varies across states and localities and can vary over time for the same location:
Many states and municipalities have already implemented an assortment of changes. Since the mid-2000s, the predominant type of benefit reform has been to reduce the generosity of benefits and increase contributions of employers and employees. Past benefit reforms may take years to see the financial impact. For example, reducing pension benefits for new hires will reduce long-run pension obligations but will not affect the underfunding of existing obligations.
Beyond benefit reforms, decisionmakers have pursued more-aggressive strategies, including using nontraditional investments, for pension funds as a means of increasing pension fund returns—for example, by increasing the share of assets invested in private equity and hedge funds. Others have restructured their unfunded pension obligations by issuing taxable pension obligation bonds and committing to a schedule of coupon and balloon payments.
Some states and localities have funded pension liabilities through budget cuts for other services, including reallocating funds toward pension funding and away from other services, adjusting the tax structure or rates, or even pursing bankruptcy proceedings.
Stakeholders that have borne the brunt of past reforms may be less inclined to bear a substantial burden of future changes. Understanding past reforms provides context and limitations on new reforms.
The causes of pension crises are complex and are as varied as the many states and localities that are facing these crises. Understanding the sources of the problem is important when identifying what policies to pursue to pay down unfunded liabilities, contain the negative consequences of the additional costs that are required, and achieve the other goals of reform.
There are five common causes of pension crises identified in the literature and raised by subject-matter experts.
Pensions design and funding issues are highly complex, and key stakeholders and decisionmakers often lack the knowledge and expertise required for pursuing effective solutions to crises.
The incentives between stakeholders and decisionmakers and across decisionmakers might not be fully aligned. Individuals will often pursue policies that meet their personal or professional objectives over the objectives of the pension system or those of other stakeholders. For example, policy pension boards are often composed of political leaders, plan members, and union leaders. These groups can have incentives (e.g., reelection) that conflict with making policy changes necessary to ensure that there are sufficient contributions to the pension fund for it to be fully funded.
Misaligned incentives may lead to opportunistic behavior whereby the actions or policies pursued by one group in its own self-interest are purposely misleading, take advantage of circumstances, or exploit information available to one group but not to another.
Pension boards determine the actuarial assumptions used in valuing pension funding and obligations, and these assumptions can be overly optimistic, resulting in an overstatement of pension funding and an understatement of future obligations. To calculate the contributions needed to sufficiently fund a state or municipal pension plan, actuaries must rely on a set of assumptions and models.
The discount rate assumption, which is used to compute the present value of promised benefits or the pension liability, has one of the largest effects on the size of the annual contribution the employer must make to fund benefits. A higher discount rate assumption reduces the present value of future liabilities, thereby making pension costs appear smaller.
As unfunded liabilities are rolled into the calculation of required contributions, assumptions surrounding the amortization of unfunded liabilities can determine whether required contributions are sufficient to cover any new liabilities. There are three main assumptions pertaining to amortization: the amortization period, whether the amortization is closed (i.e., set against a fixed date) or open (i.e., set against a fixed period), and the method for allocating costs over time (as a level dollar amount or as a level percentage of payroll).
Any of these assumptions carry the risk of being overly optimistic or being leveraged to defer pension payments, which could lead to negative amortization and, consequently, a further decline in pension system funding.
Other assumptions can affect estimates of future liabilities and revenues to cover those liabilities. Economic assumptions include the discount rate on future benefit payments, inflation rates, compensation growth, and payroll growth. Demographic and other assumptions include retirement rates, employee turnover, mortality rates, and household composition.
The complexity of public pensions, the large number of stakeholders and decisionmakers, and the complexity of the institutional environment in which pensions are set means that effective pension policy requires close cooperation and productive coordination among different groups that may have differing objectives. Mistrust among key stakeholders or decisionmakers (e.g., public employee unions and elected officials) can lead to lack of cooperation and stalemates that prevent effective policies for addressing underfunding.
Good governance of public pensions involves managing the pension system to provide high fund performance, meeting pension obligations, and doing so at a reasonable cost to all stakeholders. In contrast, lack of transparency, conflicts of interest, and poorly functioning processes can stymie effective management of public pensions.
Unlike private-sector plans, state and local plans are not subject to federal regulations regarding the fiduciary duties of those who govern the plan but are instead regulated by a patchwork of state and local laws and policies. In addition to the major concerns listed above, other governance issues include the following:
To ensure effective reform, it is important that pension systems identify the objectives of the reform effort. These goals can take the form of outcomes the system aims to achieve in the short and long term, as well as goals to improve the operations and processes that will facilitate reaching the outcome goals.
The goal of reform is ultimately to improve outcomes by making pensions financially sustainable while providing the public workforce with retirement security and public-sector employers with an effective human resource management tool. Outcome goals reflect the various objectives of the different stakeholders in the pension system:
An additional set of goals focuses on ensuring that the processes involved with running a pension system are effective and in place to avert future crises. Process goals may include developing strong governance practices and improving accounting practices, including realistic assumptions and appropriate methods. Averting future crises also involves creating a foundation of cooperation and trust among stakeholders and key personnel involved in the pension systems. Some examples include
Reform can take multiple paths and involve multiple initiatives, sometimes taken sequentially rather than simultaneously.
First, reformers should identify a menu of plausible and effective reforms that address the pension crisis causes and recognize potential trade-offs. Then, reformers should holistically evaluate the selected reforms and analyze them with respect to long-term consequences and resilience.
Feasibility of reforms varies based on the issues that define the pension crisis and the causes. The menu of reform options will typically fall into four broad categories.
One area for potential reform is in the design and type of pension offered to employees. Figure 3 summarizes the frequency of different reforms since 2009. Benefit reform can help ensure sustainable funding goals by (1) increasing pension funding through increased contributions or (2) reducing pension costs by changing pension features or type. Reforms may include
It is important to pursue pension reforms that do not endanger the other outcome goals of recruiting and retaining a high-quality workforce and ensuring retirement security.
Another approach to support funding sustainability is to pursue alternative sources of revenue to fund pension obligations. These reforms may include
Changing accounting assumptions, and accounting practices more generally, is another potential avenue for reform. These reforms can help achieve objectives related to improving operations and processes that have contributed to underlying causes of crises. Such reforms include the following:
Changes in the governance structure and oversight of pension systems are another area for potential reform that can improve operations and processes that contribute to the causes of pension crises. Governance reforms may include
The path toward effective reform will require understanding the trade-offs of different policies and reform efforts in terms of their effects on outcomes and achievement of specific goals, their cost to different stakeholders, and the time horizon over which effects and costs are realized. Research on these effects is still needed.
After identifying feasible reforms, those reforms must be evaluated to ensure that they can be effective at meeting the outcome and process goals. Such evaluation may require analysis from technical experts. The choice of reforms from the menu of options should reflect a consideration of the whole set of reforms to guarantee that they are not at odds with one another or, to the degree there are trade-offs, that they are balanced in consideration of the overall goals and the involved stakeholders.
Two important things to incorporate into an analysis of reform options are (1) long-term consequences and (2) resilience. Many reform options have long-term impacts that, while not realized today, will affect government operations and pension plan funding in the future (see an example in the box). Unexpected events, such as unusual investment volatility, can lead to abrupt disruptions to reform plans. Stress testing an investment portfolio or other key assumptions (e.g., payroll growth, longevity) can shape the reforms chosen to ensure resilience in the face of that uncertainty.
A considerable body of research has been conducted on implementation science and the steps for successful implementation of change.
This step of the road map draws from a RAND- designed toolkit developed for implementing successful reforms in the context of better policing.[2] Key elements of successful implementation include the following:
The toolkit also identifies some common challenges that prevent successful reform and provides tips for addressing them.
As shown in Table 1, the various reform options identified to address the pension crisis will support some goals and negatively affect other goals. In some cases, there are mitigations that will help to overcome these harms.
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