Researchers found that the number of major oil and gas refinery incidents in California might be reduced under new California process safety management (PSM) and Accidental Release Prevention regulations, which could provide safety and health benefits to the public and savings to California consumers. They found that, to be worth their cost, the new PSM regulations would have to produce only modest improvements in safety.
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Research Question
- What are the overall costs and benefits of implementing the proposed changes to the process safety management and California Accidental Release Prevention regulations that govern the operation of oil and gas refineries in the state of California?
The research reported here assessed the costs and benefits of the proposed California process safety management (PSM) and California Accidental Release Prevention regulations that are designed to improve safety at oil and gas refineries in California. The authors estimate these costs and benefits in four categories: costs to industry (to implement the regulation), costs to society (pass-through of certain industry costs), benefits to industry, and benefits to society.
This report examines the PSM activities and their implementation costs called for in the proposed regulation. Many, if not all, of these costs will likely be passed on to California consumers in the form of higher prices for petroleum products. The new PSM regulations are designed to improve safety at California refineries, which might result in fewer major refinery incidents and fewer releases of hazardous materials from refineries. Because the number of major refinery incidents might be reduced under the proposed regulation, the regulation could provide safety and health benefits to the public in nearby communities and might provide other economic benefits. This report examines these potential benefits.
To compare the costs and benefits of the regulations, the authors use a break-even analysis framework. They estimate the break-even point for effectiveness of the proposed regulations to be about 7.3 percent. That is, given the frequency and cost of recent costly major incidents, the best estimate of the cost of the regulations requires reducing the frequency of major incidents by around 7.3 percent to justify the regulations' cost.
Key Findings
Annual Refiner Costs Would Most Likely Be Around $58 Million
- Maintaining compliance with the proposed regulations would cost refiners an estimated $58 million per year.
Costs to Society Would Come in the Form of Increased Gasoline Prices
- In recent years, gasoline consumption in California has averaged about 14.5 billion gallons per year. Spreading the $58 million estimated refiner cost of the regulations across this volume of sales indicates a price increase of about $0.004 per gallon.
Safety Improvements Could Reduce the Number of Costly Major Refinery Incidents
- Each major refinery incident avoided could save refiners about $220 million.
- These changes could also improve system reliability, community relations, labor–management relations, and company reputation and public image.
Benefits to Society Would Come in the Form of Costs Avoided and Deaths Avoided
- The largest potential benefit of the proposed regulations is the avoided cost of fuel-supply disruption related to a future major refinery incident. The researchers estimated that major refinery incidents have cost California consumers about $800 million per year, averaged over the past 16 years.
- Reducing the number of refinery incidents avoids costs to those living near afflicted refineries, including emergency services, health care, reductions in property values, and reductions in local tax revenue to local governments.
- The benefits could extend to prevented death and injury among nearby residents and refinery workers.
The Cost–Benefit Analysis Finds a Break-Even Point
- The regulations need to make California refineries 7.3 percent safer than they are under the current regulations in order to be worth their cost.
Table of Contents
Chapter One
Introduction
Chapter Two
Overview of the Proposed Regulations
Chapter Three
Methodology
Chapter Four
Implementation Costs of the Proposed Regulation
Chapter Five
Major Incidents and Worker Deaths at California Refineries
Chapter Six
Impact of Major Refinery Incidents on California Gasoline Prices
Chapter Seven
Macroeconomic Impact Estimates
Chapter Eight
Potential Benefits to Industry
Chapter Nine
Balancing Costs and Benefits
Chapter Ten
Conclusions
Appendix
Structured Interview Questions
The research reported here was conducted in the Infrastructure Resilience and Environmental Policy Program, a part of RAND Justice, Infrastructure, and Environment.
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