Aaron Strong

@resourceecon on Twitter

Senior Economist; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School

Santa Monica Office

Education

Ph.D. in economics, University of Colorado; M.A. in economics, University of Colorado; M.S. in applied mathematics, University of Colorado; B.A. in mathematics, Luther College

One Page Bio

Overview

Aaron Strong is an economist at the RAND Corporation and a professor at Pardee RAND Graduate School. As an applied microeconomist who specializes in environmental and natural resource economics, his recent work has focused on developing a framework for estimating the value of the resilience dividend, a landscape survey of decision support tools for flood risk mitigation, estimating the impact of oil and natural gas prices on development and extraction, and estimating the value of natural capital in a western rangeland. He has used his work on computable general equilibrium models to help Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands estimate future prices stemming from recovery efforts. In addition to the environmental work, he has estimated the macroeconomic impact of a variety of different policies and programs including: land loss in Louisiana, changes to workers' compensation in California, Medicaid expansion, and changes to regulations for oil and gas refineries in California. Currently, his interest is centered on better understanding the financial landscape for resilience and sustainability investments and how to crowd in private sector investments. Strong earned a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Colorado, Boulder. Previously, he held faculty positions at the University of Iowa and the University of Wyoming. In addition, he had post-docs with the G8 Legacy Chair in Wildlife Ecology at the University of Calgary and the Center for Environmental Economics and Sustainability Policy at Arizona State University.

Research Focus

Selected Publications

Aaron Strong, Tedeja Gracner, Peggy Chen and Kandice Kapinos, "On the Value of the Umbilical Cord Blood Supply", Value in Health (forthcoming)

Bond, Craig A., Aaron Strong, Nicholas E. Burger, Sarah Weilant, Uzaib Saya, and Anita Chandra, Resilience Dividend Valuation Model: Framework Development and Initial Case Studies, RAND Corporation (RR-2129-RF), 2017

Barnes, Stephen R.; Bond, Craig; Burger, Nicholas; Anania, Kate; Strong, Aaron; Weilant, Sarah; and Virgets, Stephanie, "Economic Evaluation of Coastal Land Loss in Louisiana," Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economcis, 4(1), 2017

Eric Tate, Aaron Strong, Travis Kraus, and Haoyi Xiong, "Flood Recovery and Property Acquisition in Cedar Rapids, Iowa," Natural Hazards, 80(3), 2016

Aaron Strong and Christopher Goemans, "The Impact of Real-time Quantity Information on Residential Water Demand," Water Resources and Economics, 10, 2015

H. Allen Klaiber, V. Kerry Smith, Michael Kaminsky and Aaron Strong, "Measuring Price Elasticities for Residential Water Demand with Limited Information," Land Economics, 90(1), 2014

Aaron Strong and Christopher Goemans, "Quantity Uncertainty and Demand: The Case of Water Smart Reader Ownership,," B.E. Journal of Policy Analysis and Economcis, 14(3), 2014

Honors & Awards

Bronze Medal (2016), RAND
Bronze Medeal (2020), RAND
Mentor Award (2021), RAND

Commentary

Vaccination

A Case for Vaccinating Teachers First
Most agree that America's 18 million health care workers should top the list for COVID-19 vaccination. The 3.3 million teachers should come next. Vaccinating teachers could make it possible to open schools permanently and get parents back to work. That would help the economy recover.
Dec 19, 2020
The Wall Street Journal
Market Regulation

Too Interconnected to Fail
The 2007–08 financial crisis made regulators and lawmakers acutely aware that some financial institutions had become too big to fail. The next big economic crisis may arise outside the financial sector, in highly networked companies that are too interconnected to fail.
Aug 22, 2020
Wall Street Journal
Decisionmaking

Relaxing COVID-19 Restrictions Presents Stark Health and Economic Choices
RAND's new COVID-19 interventions impact tool uses epidemiological and economic models and continually refreshed data to estimate what could happen as restrictions are eased. The tool won't make the choices confronting state leaders less painful. But it can provide clear, evidence-based estimates of the health and economic trade-offs.
May 18, 2020
The RAND Blog
Community Health and Well-Being

Reopening America—The Health and Economic Trade-Offs: Q&A with RAND Experts
Local and state officials are thinking through whether, when, and how to lift social-distancing restrictions. We asked three RAND researchers about the complex problem of reopening.
May 4, 2020
Supply Chain Management

Supply Chain Disruptions Due to COVID-19 and Social Distancing
There are significant epidemiological and economic risks and uncertainties with physical distancing policies put into effect in the United States to reduce the growth of COVID-19. We have estimated the economy-wide impacts of a set of these policies to provide a sense of their likely economic toll.
Apr 28, 2020
The RAND Blog
Environmental Impact Bonds May Not Bear Fruit for Green Investors
Investors may be willing to accept a lower return for socially responsible investments. But environmental impact bonds may not be the best way to leverage these investment possibilities.
Nov 26, 2017
Zilient

Publications

Draft
Interdependence Across the National Critical Functions
Provides a novel interpretation of national critical functions to enhance their use for research by the risk analysis community.
Feb 6, 2023
Report
Vermont Early Care and Education Financing Study: Estimated Costs, Financing Options, and Economic Impacts
Vermont is interested in expanding families' subsidies for early care and education (ECE) programs. This report estimates the costs of a high-quality ECE system with a well-compensated workforce and identifies possible funding sources.
Jan 17, 2023
Report
Identifying Critical IT Products and Services
Researchers have identified the software and businesses that provide critical information technology products and services and developed a framework to continue this analysis as technology evolves. They assessed both software risk and business risk.
Jul 6, 2022
Report
Guidance on When to Estimate a Future Price Factor: Development of Criteria and Thresholds
A future price forecast can help the Federal Emergency Management Agency and communities seeking its Public Assistance estimate construction costs. Researchers created a framework for determining when such a forecast could be useful.
Jun 20, 2022
Report
Forecasting Public Recovery Expenditures' Effect on Construction Prices and the Demand for Construction Labor
Researchers developed cost-estimating tools and estimated future construction costs for Puerto Rico's recovery from Hurricane María. This report documents their approach, data, findings, and recommendations.
Jun 17, 2022
Research Brief
Future Price Forecasting in the Wake of Large-Scale Disasters: The Case of Puerto Rico After Hurricane María
Large-scale disaster recovery projects in isolated areas likely require unique future price forecasting. This brief describes an occupational analysis and model to estimate the effects of recovery on the price of labor, materials, and equipment.
Jun 17, 2022
Report
A Risk Assessment of National Critical Functions During COVID-19: Challenges and Opportunities
This report presents a framework for assessing risk that the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses to the National Critical Functions, describes challenges in implementing the framework, and provides recommendations for improving it.
Apr 26, 2022
Journal Article
Systemic Cyber Risk and Aggregate Impacts
High-profile attacks illustrate the potential for systemic cyber risk. We estimate the aggregate economic impact of firm-specific attacks finding potential large losses from downstream propagations.
Feb 18, 2021
Report
Developing Recovery Options for Puerto Rico's Economic and Disaster Recovery Plan: Process and Methodology
This report summarizes the strategic planning process in support of the government of Puerto Rico in its development of a congressionally mandated recovery plan.
Sep 30, 2020
Report
Challenges and Opportunities for the Puerto Rico Economy: A Review of Evidence and Options Following Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017
The authors review Puerto Rico's economic history and provide analysis following the 2017 hurricane season that serves as the context for a set of principles and actions in the recovery plan for rebuilding a healthy economy.
Sep 30, 2020
Report
Supporting a 21st Century Workforce in Puerto Rico: Challenges and Options for Improving Puerto Rico's Workforce System Following Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017
A workforce development system that supports Puerto Rico's economic development requires a K through postsecondary education system that emphasizes individuals' career pathways and aligns training with the evolving labor market and business needs.
Sep 30, 2020
Draft
Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 on Corporate Default Risk
Estimates the impact of COVID-19 and the likelihood of firm defaults, the potential for firm exits, and average firm default probabilities.
Jul 10, 2020
Report
An Estimation of the Economic Costs of Social-Distancing Policies
This report offers a series of economic models that provide an initial assessment of possible short-term economy-wide effects of some social-distancing policies during the coronavirus disease 2019 crisis.
May 4, 2020
Tool
The Health and Economic Impacts of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions to Address COVID-19: A Decision Support Tool for State and Local Policymakers
There is an urgent need for an assessment of public health interventions to address coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and determine when to relax them. This document describes the COVID-19 Decision Support Tool, which is designed to fill that need.
May 4, 2020
Research Brief
Systemic Risk: It's Not Just in the Financial Sector
After a decade of focus on financial firms, new analysis using an innovative approach and new dataset shows that firms in a diverse range of sectors, such as technology and telecommunications, pose a systemic risk to the economy at large.
Feb 3, 2020
Report
Systemic Risk in the Broad Economy: Interfirm Networks and Shocks in the U.S. Economy
Following the 2008 financial crisis, little attention was paid to systemic risks in the economy at large. The authors of this report address that gap, finding evidence that systemic risk extends beyond the financial sector.
Jan 21, 2020
Report
Acquisition and Use of MANPADS Against Commercial Aviation: Risks, Proliferation, Mitigation, and Cost of an Attack
This report provides a summary of the risks, proliferation, costs of man-portable air defense system attacks against commercial aviation targets. It also presents mitigation options against such an attack.
Dec 30, 2019
Report
Incorporating Resilience into Transportation Planning and Assessment
RAND researchers explore how to better incorporate principles of resilience into the decisionmaking process for long-term transportation planning.
Oct 16, 2019
Report
At the Dawn of Belt and Road: China in the Developing World
China has always felt vulnerable, and, in the 1990s, it began forming agreements with other nations, eventually culminating in the Belt and Road Initiative. The authors analyze China's engagement with the Developing World.
Oct 16, 2018
Report
Estimating the Global Cost of Cyber Risk: Methodology and Examples
This report shares a transparent and adaptable methodology for estimating present and future global costs of cyber risk. The report has a companion Excel-based modeling and simulation platform that allows users to alter assumptions.
Jan 15, 2018
Journal Article
On the Value of the Umbilical Cord Blood Supply
Several public cord blood banks are struggling financially, and the question remains whether additional allocations of funds to them are justified. This article estimates the social benefits of public cord blood bank inventory net of cord blood banks' operational costs.
2018
Report
Challenges to the Sustainability of the U.S. Public Cord Blood System
We describe the existing public cord blood bank (CBB) system, assess current trends and economic relationships from the perspective of stakeholders in the CBB system, and provide recommendations for ways to improve the sustainability of the system.
Sep 29, 2017
Research Brief
Public Cord Blood Banks: Worthy of National Investment
RAND studied trends affecting public cord blood banks and considered changes to the program to buttress banks' financial stability. Researchers found a system worthy of investment, especially if it helps improve the quality of the national inventory.
Sep 29, 2017
Report
Landscape Survey to Support Flood Apex National Flood Decision Support Toolbox: Definitions and Existing Tools
This report summarizes the literature on resilience to flood risk, its analysis and measurement, and examples. It also catalogs decision support tools for flood mitigation and makes recommendations for further investigation of the tools.
Sep 7, 2017
Draft
Nutritious or Nuisance on Net? Values of Natural Capital in a Competitive Terrestrial Rangeland Ecosystem
Illustrates how the value of rangelands ecosystems across the western United States may change as invasive species alter the landscape.
Aug 22, 2017
Report
Guide to the Resilience Dividend Valuation Model
This guide provides an overview of and guidance on the Resilience Dividend Valuation Model, a framework designed to help policymakers and practitioners estimate the resilience dividend from projects they are considering or have implemented.
Aug 1, 2017
Report
Resilience Dividend Valuation Model: Framework Development and Initial Case Studies
This report describes the development of the Resilience Dividend Valuation Model, a complementary framework designed to help communities estimate the resilience dividend from resilience projects or investment.
Aug 1, 2017
Journal Article
Economic Evaluation of Coastal Land Loss in Louisiana
This study quantifies the economic assets and activity that is at risk from the process of land loss in coastal Louisiana in a future without restoration and protection efforts to minimize or mitigate land loss.
Jul 19, 2017
Report
Modeling the Economic Impact of a California Workers' Compensation Formulary
This report estimates the potential impacts of a California Workers' Compensation formulary in terms of changes in prescription drug use and spending and discusses the potential broader impacts of these changes on the California economy.
Jul 17, 2017
Report
Cost–Benefit Analysis of Proposed California Oil and Gas Refinery Regulations
New safety standards for oil and gas refineries in California might reduce refinery incidents, providing benefits to the public and savings to California consumers. To be worth the cost, the rules would have to produce modest improvements in safety.
Mar 16, 2016
Journal Article
Economic Evaluation of Coastal Land Loss in Louisiana
This report presents an economic evaluation of assets and activities at risk from land loss and associated storm damage in coastal Louisiana. The results show a significant level of risk to economic assets and activity in Louisiana.
2015