Aaron Strong

Disaster Recovery Creates Its Own Bubble

Shortages of workers and materials inevitably make rebuilding slower and more expensive after a natural disaster. In Maui, this is likely to be a problem for agencies like FEMA that provide public assistance. But it will also be a problem for individual households if private insurance payouts are insufficient to rebuild.

A Case for Vaccinating Teachers First

Most agree that America's 18 million health care workers should top the list for COVID-19 vaccination. The 3.3 million teachers should come next. Vaccinating teachers could make it possible to open schools permanently and get parents back to work. That would help the economy recover.

Too Interconnected to Fail

The 2007–08 financial crisis made regulators and lawmakers acutely aware that some financial institutions had become too big to fail. The next big economic crisis may arise outside the financial sector, in highly networked companies that are too interconnected to fail.

Relaxing COVID-19 Restrictions Presents Stark Health and Economic Choices

RAND's new COVID-19 interventions impact tool uses epidemiological and economic models and continually refreshed data to estimate what could happen as restrictions are eased. The tool won't make the choices confronting state leaders less painful. But it can provide clear, evidence-based estimates of the health and economic trade-offs.

Reopening America—The Health and Economic Trade-Offs: Q&A with RAND Experts

Local and state officials are thinking through whether, when, and how to lift social-distancing restrictions. We asked three RAND researchers about the complex problem of reopening.

Supply Chain Disruptions Due to COVID-19 and Social Distancing

There are significant epidemiological and economic risks and uncertainties with physical distancing policies put into effect in the United States to reduce the growth of COVID-19. We have estimated the economy-wide impacts of a set of these policies to provide a sense of their likely economic toll.

Environmental Impact Bonds May Not Bear Fruit for Green Investors

Investors may be willing to accept a lower return for socially responsible investments. But environmental impact bonds may not be the best way to leverage these investment possibilities.

Report

Identifying and Prioritizing Systemically Important Entities: Advancing Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience

This report helps the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency codify the concept of systemically important critical infrastructure by documenting the work surrounding systemic risks and cyber risks in software supply chains.

Draft

The Global Economy at the Firm-Level: Estimating Input-Output Linkages in Production Networks and the Potential for Systemic Risk

Estimates a true firm-level model with global input-output linkages in production networks and the potential for systemic risk.

Draft

Interdependence Across the National Critical Functions

Provides a novel interpretation of national critical functions to enhance their use for research by the risk analysis community.

Report

Vermont Early Care and Education Financing Study: Estimated Costs, Financing Options, and Economic Impacts

Vermont is interested in expanding families' subsidies for early care and education (ECE) programs. This report estimates the costs of a high-quality ECE system with a well-compensated workforce and identifies possible funding sources.

Report

Identifying Critical IT Products and Services

Researchers have identified the software and businesses that provide critical information technology products and services and developed a framework to continue this analysis as technology evolves. They assessed both software risk and business risk.

Report

Guidance on When to Estimate a Future Price Factor: Development of Criteria and Thresholds

A future price forecast can help the Federal Emergency Management Agency and communities seeking its Public Assistance estimate construction costs. Researchers created a framework for determining when such a forecast could be useful.

Report

Forecasting Public Recovery Expenditures' Effect on Construction Prices and the Demand for Construction Labor

Researchers developed cost-estimating tools and estimated future construction costs for Puerto Rico's recovery from Hurricane María. This report documents their approach, data, findings, and recommendations.

Research Brief

Future Price Forecasting in the Wake of Large-Scale Disasters: The Case of Puerto Rico After Hurricane María

Large-scale disaster recovery projects in isolated areas likely require unique future price forecasting. This brief describes an occupational analysis and model to estimate the effects of recovery on the price of labor, materials, and equipment. 

Report

A Risk Assessment of National Critical Functions During COVID-19: Challenges and Opportunities

This report presents a framework for assessing risk that the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses to the National Critical Functions, describes challenges in implementing the framework, and provides recommendations for improving it.

Journal Article

Systemic Cyber Risk and Aggregate Impacts

High-profile attacks illustrate the potential for systemic cyber risk. We estimate the aggregate economic impact of firm-specific attacks finding potential large losses from downstream propagations.

Report

Developing Recovery Options for Puerto Rico's Economic and Disaster Recovery Plan: Process and Methodology

This report summarizes the strategic planning process in support of the government of Puerto Rico in its development of a congressionally mandated recovery plan.

Report

Challenges and Opportunities for the Puerto Rico Economy: A Review of Evidence and Options Following Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017

The authors review Puerto Rico's economic history and provide analysis following the 2017 hurricane season that serves as the context for a set of principles and actions in the recovery plan for rebuilding a healthy economy.

Report

Supporting a 21st Century Workforce in Puerto Rico: Challenges and Options for Improving Puerto Rico's Workforce System Following Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017

A workforce development system that supports Puerto Rico's economic development requires a K through postsecondary education system that emphasizes individuals' career pathways and aligns training with the evolving labor market and business needs.

Draft

Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 on Corporate Default Risk

Estimates the impact of COVID-19 and the likelihood of firm defaults, the potential for firm exits, and average firm default probabilities.

Report

An Estimation of the Economic Costs of Social-Distancing Policies

This report offers a series of economic models that provide an initial assessment of possible short-term economy-wide effects of some social-distancing policies during the coronavirus disease 2019 crisis.

Tool

The Health and Economic Impacts of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions to Address COVID-19: A Decision Support Tool for State and Local Policymakers

There is an urgent need for an assessment of public health interventions to address coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and determine when to relax them. This document describes the COVID-19 Decision Support Tool, which is designed to fill that need.

Research Brief

Systemic Risk: It's Not Just in the Financial Sector

After a decade of focus on financial firms, new analysis using an innovative approach and new dataset shows that firms in a diverse range of sectors, such as technology and telecommunications, pose a systemic risk to the economy at large.

Report

Systemic Risk in the Broad Economy: Interfirm Networks and Shocks in the U.S. Economy

Following the 2008 financial crisis, little attention was paid to systemic risks in the economy at large. The authors of this report address that gap, finding evidence that systemic risk extends beyond the financial sector.

Report

Acquisition and Use of MANPADS Against Commercial Aviation: Risks, Proliferation, Mitigation, and Cost of an Attack

This report provides a summary of the risks, proliferation, costs of man-portable air defense system attacks against commercial aviation targets. It also presents mitigation options against such an attack.

Report

Incorporating Resilience into Transportation Planning and Assessment

RAND researchers explore how to better incorporate principles of resilience into the decisionmaking process for long-term transportation planning.

Report

At the Dawn of Belt and Road: China in the Developing World

China has always felt vulnerable, and, in the 1990s, it began forming agreements with other nations, eventually culminating in the Belt and Road Initiative. The authors analyze China's engagement with the Developing World.

Report

Estimating the Global Cost of Cyber Risk: Methodology and Examples

This report shares a transparent and adaptable methodology for estimating present and future global costs of cyber risk. The report has a companion Excel-based modeling and simulation platform that allows users to alter assumptions.

Journal Article

On the Value of the Umbilical Cord Blood Supply

Several public cord blood banks are struggling financially, and the question remains whether additional allocations of funds to them are justified. This article estimates the social benefits of public cord blood bank inventory net of cord blood banks' operational costs.

Report

Challenges to the Sustainability of the U.S. Public Cord Blood System

We describe the existing public cord blood bank (CBB) system, assess current trends and economic relationships from the perspective of stakeholders in the CBB system, and provide recommendations for ways to improve the sustainability of the system.

Research Brief

Public Cord Blood Banks: Worthy of National Investment

RAND studied trends affecting public cord blood banks and considered changes to the program to buttress banks' financial stability. Researchers found a system worthy of investment, especially if it helps improve the quality of the national inventory.

Report

Landscape Survey to Support Flood Apex National Flood Decision Support Toolbox: Definitions and Existing Tools

This report summarizes the literature on resilience to flood risk, its analysis and measurement, and examples. It also catalogs decision support tools for flood mitigation and makes recommendations for further investigation of the tools.

Draft

Nutritious or Nuisance on Net? Values of Natural Capital in a Competitive Terrestrial Rangeland Ecosystem

Illustrates how the value of rangelands ecosystems across the western United States may change as invasive species alter the landscape.

Report

Guide to the Resilience Dividend Valuation Model

This guide provides an overview of and guidance on the Resilience Dividend Valuation Model, a framework designed to help policymakers and practitioners estimate the resilience dividend from projects they are considering or have implemented.

Report

Resilience Dividend Valuation Model: Framework Development and Initial Case Studies

This report describes the development of the Resilience Dividend Valuation Model, a complementary framework designed to help communities estimate the resilience dividend from resilience projects or investment.

Journal Article

Economic Evaluation of Coastal Land Loss in Louisiana

This study quantifies the economic assets and activity that is at risk from the process of land loss in coastal Louisiana in a future without restoration and protection efforts to minimize or mitigate land loss.

Report

Modeling the Economic Impact of a California Workers' Compensation Formulary

This report estimates the potential impacts of a California Workers' Compensation formulary in terms of changes in prescription drug use and spending and discusses the potential broader impacts of these changes on the California economy.

Report

Cost–Benefit Analysis of Proposed California Oil and Gas Refinery Regulations

New safety standards for oil and gas refineries in California might reduce refinery incidents, providing benefits to the public and savings to California consumers. To be worth the cost, the rules would have to produce modest improvements in safety.

Journal Article

Economic Evaluation of Coastal Land Loss in Louisiana

This report presents an economic evaluation of assets and activities at risk from land loss and associated storm damage in coastal Louisiana. The results show a significant level of risk to economic assets and activity in Louisiana.