This proof-of-concept study uses stated preference discrete choice experiments to explore and quantify how the British public value key dimensions of a future relationship with Europe, including freedom of movement for holidays, freedom of movement for working and living, contributions to the EU, free trade with other countries, access to the EU single market for goods and services and sovereignty.

What sort of Brexit do the British people want?

A proof-of-concept study using stated preference discrete choice experiments: Technical addendum

Charlene Rohr, Alexandra Pollitt, David Howarth, Hui Lu, Jonathan Grant

ResearchPublished Jul 13, 2017

This proof-of-concept study uses stated preference discrete choice experiments to explore and quantify how the British public value key dimensions of a future relationship with Europe, including freedom of movement for holidays, freedom of movement for working and living, contributions to the EU, free trade with other countries, access to the EU single market for goods and services and sovereignty. The study report provides details of the technical aspects of the work, including the survey methodology, the design of the experiments and the model analysis. A companion report summarises the key policy findings. In terms of methodology, we conclude that people were able to undertake the choice experiments, even though they were complex — both because of the abstract nature of the choices and the number of attributes and levels. The resulting model indicates that those dimensions directly influencing the economy — such as free trade deals with countries outside the EU and access to the EU single-market — are valued most highly, and that preferences vary significantly by education level. Using the model results we find that Britons place a negative value on a 'no deal' option of about £14 per household per week of EU expenditure relative to the status quo (noting that the absolute values derived from the study should be used to provide order-of-magnitude estimates). Having a relationship like Norway is valued positively at about £14 per household per week of EU expenditure relative to the status quo.

Key Findings

  • The British public want a deal on Brexit and are willing to compromise to get one. Netting out the positives and negatives, the current situation of EU membership is worth about £14 per household per week more than leaving the EU with no deal.
  • The British public place the greatest value on the ability to make trade deals and having access to the Single Market for trade of Goods and Services after Brexit, more so than restricting freedom of movement, increased sovereignty and reduced EU contribution.
  • The British public seem to be more concerned with restricting demand for public services than simply restricting freedom of movement, particularly those who voted to leave the EU.
  • Education level was the most important explanatory variable in quantifying people's preferences. Overall, those with university degrees preferred closer ties to the EU, while those with no qualifications preferred greater institutional distance from the EU.
  • Given the importance of making trade deals and access to the Single Market, the public place a positive value on a relationship like Norway's current relationship with the EU, allowing for free trade with other countries while remaining within the single market, and accepting freedom of movement and some loss of sovereignty.

Topics

Document Details

  • Copyright: RAND Corporation, The Policy Institute at King's College London and David Howarth
  • Publisher: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Web-Only
  • Year: 2017
  • Pages: 71
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/RR2126
  • Document Number: RR-2126-RE

Citation

RAND Style Manual
Rohr, Charlene, Alexandra Pollitt, David Howarth, Hui Lu, and Jonathan Grant, What sort of Brexit do the British people want? A proof-of-concept study using stated preference discrete choice experiments: Technical addendum, RAND Corporation, RR-2126-RE, 2017. As of October 5, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2126.html
Chicago Manual of Style
Rohr, Charlene, Alexandra Pollitt, David Howarth, Hui Lu, and Jonathan Grant, What sort of Brexit do the British people want? A proof-of-concept study using stated preference discrete choice experiments: Technical addendum. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2017. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2126.html.
BibTeX RIS

Research conducted by

The research described in this report was a collaboration between The Policy Institute at King's College, Professor David Howarth and researchers at the University of Cambridge and RAND Europe.

This publication is part of the RAND research report series. Research reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND research reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.

RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.