News Release
Support for EEA-Style Brexit Has Increased
Oct 11, 2018
This longitudinal study uses stated preference discrete choice experiments to explore and quantify how the British public value key dimensions of a future relationship with Europe and how these have changed between 2017 and 2018. Key dimensions included freedom of movement for working and holidays, contributions to the EU, free trade with other countries, access to the EU single market for goods and services and sovereignty.
A longitudinal study examining the "trade-offs" people would be willing to make in reaching a Brexit deal — technical addendum
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In July 2017 we undertook a 'proof-of-concept' study using stated preference discrete choice experiments (SPDCEs) to quantify how the British public value key dimensions of a future relationship with the EU. This follow-on study undertakes the same experiments with many of the same respondents one year later to explore whether and how people's preferences have changed. This report provides details of the technical aspects of the work, including the survey methodology, the design of the experiments and the model analysis. A companion report summarises the key policy findings. In terms of methodology, we again find that people were able to undertake the choice experiments, even though they were complex. We find little change in people's preferences in the last two years, although we see some evidence of movement towards a closer relationship to the EU. Again, we find that those dimensions directly influencing the economy — such as free trade deals with countries outside the EU and access to the EU Single Market — are valued most highly, and that preferences vary significantly by education level. Using the model results we find that Britons place a negative value on a 'no deal' option of about £14 per household per week of EU expenditure relative to remaining in the EU (noting that the absolute values derived from the study should be used to provide order-of-magnitude estimates). Having a 'Norway-like' relationship is valued positively at about £11 per household per week of EU expenditure relative to remaining in the EU.
Chapter One
Background
Chapter Two
Designing the stated preference discrete choice experiments
Chapter Three
Findings from background questions and the stated preference discrete choice experiments
Chapter Four
How can we use the choice modelling results to inform Brexit negotiations?
Chapter Five
Methodological findings, recommendations and caveats
Appendix A
Fieldwork and characteristics of the survey sample
Appendix B
Detailed choice model results
This project is a RAND Venture. Funding was provided by gifts from RAND supporters and income from operations. The research was conducted by RAND Europe in cooperation with he Policy Institute at King's College London and Professor David Howarth and researchers at the University of Cambridge.
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